Tuesday, June 10, 2008

General Election Tracker

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/9: Added CNN and NPR.

Obama Average: 277.8 (was 281.0) - due to inclusion of CNN at 273.4 and NPR at 266.1, the first estimate under 270.

As we've got 7 projections now, we have some serious divergence of opinion on some states. One thing we'll start to look at are the states that span 3 categories:

Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up - that won't last.

Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.

Indiana: Three have it as a toss-up, but NPR has it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

New Mexico: OpenLeft has it as Obama-Lean, CNN at McCain-Lean

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last.

South Carolina - Three have it as tossup - that won't last either.

Map showing consensus of sources:

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>



Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, UT, WY - 44 EVs
(June 9: KY and TN removed from consensus solid states due to inclusion of NPR)

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVsNBCOpenLeftFront LoadedElectoral-
Vote.com
538.comCNNNPR
Date

6/56/46/56/76/76/96/9
Obama (O)

153185152190178153143
Obama-Lean (OL)

47575554503757
Tossup (T)

138861379294154111
McCain-Lean (ML)

846448787869110
McCain (M)

116146146124138125117
Obama Total

200242207244228190200
McCain Total

200210194202216194227
Obama Est

276.4286.4274.1294.8273.1273.4266.1
Alas
3MMLMLMLMLMM
Ark
6MLMMMMMLML
Colo
9TOLTOLTTT
Conn
7OOOTOLOOL
Del
3OOLOLOLOOOL
Flor
27TMLMLMMLTML
Geo
15MLMMMMMLML
Ind
11MLTTTMLMLM
Iowa
7TOLOLOLOLTT
Kent
8M
M
MMMM
ML
Louis
9MLMMMLMMLML
Maine
4OLOOOOOLOL
Mass
12OOLOLOOOO
Mich
17TTTTTTT
Minn
10OLOOOOTOL
Missi
6MLMMMLMMM
Misso
11MLMLTTTTML
Mont
3MLMLMLMLMLMLML
Nebr
5MLMMMMMM
Nev
5TMLTMLTTT
New H
4TTTOLTTT
New J
15OLOOLOOLOLOL
New M
5TOLTTTMLT
North C
15MLMLMLMLMLMLML
North D
3MLTTMLMLMM
Ohio
20TTTTTTT
Ore
7OLOOLOOOLOL
Penn
21TOLTOLOLTT
SC
8MTTTMLMM
SD
3MMMMMLMM
Tenn
11MM
M
M
M
M
ML
Tex
34MMMMLMMM
Virg
13TTTTTTT
Wash
11OLOOLOOOLOL
WV
5MMMMMLMLML
Wisc
10TTTOLTTT


































































Notes:
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.

18 comments:

Zach said...

Tennessee is wrong. You have it down as O or OL, but on the map it's red, and it's obviously going to go red at this point.

Matt said...

typos. fixed, thanks.

ben1960 said...

Consensus does not have to mean unanimity. So the table would be easier to read with less outlying and as it would be only one source, more accurate, if just one source (showing a 'Lean') did not take that state out of the category of HOLDs.

26376 said...

Connecticut is also a three-category state by those sources, though not separated out as such.

Pinyan said...

Another source to consider adding is Election Projection. While the blogger who runs it is conservative, his formula has been pretty solid.
2004 Presidential: 48 states with right winner (Iowa and Wisconsin flipped), 41 states in the right category (0-5%, 5-10%, 10%+).
2006 Senate: 33-for-33 on winner, 27 in right category.

Right now he has Obama winning 52%/304 - 47%/234.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

What about RealClearPolitics?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

.

Matt said...

Connecticut fixed.

RCP is purely state poll driven, and we already have a couple of those.

We'll look at Election Projection.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

How about putting a link on the top left side of the page for the General Election Tracker? :)

Karen Anne said...

Where's RI?

Matt said...

Rhode Island is a consensus solid state - All O across the board. They're not in the table, but listed above the table.

ben1960 said...

How about adding Ramussen Reports?

Jamie said...

I've been tracking RCP polling data, and CNN and NBC seem to diverge most from those data. Examples:

State / CNN & NBC / RCP
CO / T / OL (+7.5)
ID / ML / M (+13.0)
LA / ML / M (+13.4)
NJ / OL / O (+12.6)
OR / OL / O (+10.7)
PA / T / OL (+5.8)
SC / M / ML (+6.0)
WA / OL / O (+11.0)

Two conclusions: 1) Their analysis is either more subjective or based on specific or unpublished data, and 2) their analysis seems to have a conservative bias, i.e., the polling data suggests a stronger conclusion than these networks do.

As a result, their analysis shows a lot more electoral votes in play than RCP polling data suggests. If you define battleground states as those with polling data falling within a margin of error of +/-4%, then only 8 states (IN,MI,MO,NV,NH,NM,OH,VA) are in play right now with a total of 86 electoral votes (as opposed to 12 states and 142 votes in 2004).

Jamie said...

The McCain campaign strategy has identified the following target states under the heading of "Changing the Map": CA, NV, AZ, NM, MI, WI, OH, PA, CT, and NH.

First the facts: NV, AZ, NM, and OH would NOT be map changes as all were won by Bush in 2004.

Second, McCain has no shot in CA or CT and PA is not looking good for him.

ben1960 said...

I do agree that we can talk all about all the states which MAY be in play come November, but in reality (and barring a landslide either way), BO will win PA, CT and even MI (if not then look out!); JM will win FL, NC and VA, and JM is also likley to win over the hispanics of NV, NM and then CO.
So it is really down to 4 states which BO needs to hold/win - NH, WI IA and, the most important, OH. It's simple, if he wins those four, he is President o/w not.

Matt said...

Jaime - CNN and NBC are more subjective - they look at more historical trends, and they aren't going to move states way out of their history based on a couple of May polls. These are the kinds of things we'll be looking closely at. South Carolina is the best example of this. If the polls stay consistent, then the Strong McCain's will go away. But if the polls move in mcCain's favor, than the Tossups will go away.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Matt and Oreo-

At the top of the chart the links for Open Left and Electoral-Vote.com do not appear to be working links.

Matt said...

We'll get that fixed. A new GE tracker post just went up.

Leah Texas4Obama said...
This comment has been removed by the author.