Senate Tracker - June 21

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This is the DemConWatch Senate Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web for the 2008 Senate elections. Be sure to check out our Presidential General Election Tracker. We will be introducing our House tracker later this month.

DCW Senate Index: 55.5

The DCW Senate Index is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Index. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!)

How do we calculate the Senate Projection for each source? The Senate Projection gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, and 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean. (And obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat).

The following seats are unanimous strong and not a pickup, and are not shown in the table below:
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DCW Senate Tracker
State	Current	EV.com	OpenLeft	Crystal Ball	Cook	CQ	SSP	Rothenberg	....
Date		6/21	6/19	6/18	5/23	6/18	6/15	5/19
Dem		13	12	12	12	12	12	12
Dem-Lean		2	4	4	1	2	2	2
Tossup		4	2	2	6	4	2	3
Rep-Lean		6	4	4	2	3	6	2
Rep		10	13	13	14	14	13	16
Dem '08 Projection		18	17	17	16	16	16	16
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Senate Projection		57	56	56	55	55	55	55
Dem-Gain		+6	+5	+5	+4	+4	+4	+4
AK (Stevens)	R	T	T	T	T	RL	RL	RL
CO (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	T	T	T	T
GA (Chambliss)	R	RL	R	R	R	R	RL	R
KY (McConnell)	R	T	RL	R	R	R	R	R
LA (Landrieu)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T
ME (Collins)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	R	R
MN (Coleman)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	T	RL	T
MS (Cochran)	R	R	R	R	R	R	RL	R
MS (Wicker)	R	T	T	T	T	T	RL	R
NC (Dole)	R	RL	R	RL	R	R	RL	R
NH (Sununu)	R	D	DL	DL	T	T	T	DL
NJ (Lautenberg)	D	DL	DL	D	D	D	D	D
NM (Open)	R	D	D	DL	T	DL	DL	DL
OR (Smith)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	R	RL
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Here are the seats that span 3 categories:

• KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
• MS (Wicker): Rothenberg has it as a "Clear Advantage" for Wicke, but the The last two polls in May show a very tight race.
  
• NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
  
• NM (Open): Cook, who hasn't updated since May 23, has it as a Tossup. Udall has led by 15 points or more in all polls since Mid-May.
  

The Senate Index gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, and 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean. (And obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat).