Friday, June 13, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 13

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/13: Added Rasmussen and Election Projection

Obama Index: 281 (was 275.3), due to the addition of Election Projection (303..9) and Rasmussen 277.2

Here are the states that span 3 categories:

Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up - that won't last.

Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.

Indiana: Only Frontloading HQ still has it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won't last.

New Mexico: Three sources have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last.

Map showing consensus of sources. New Mexico and Michigan move to Obama, Virginia to McCain.


<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Consensus solid states, not shown in the table below:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs

The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVsElection Proj.Open Left538.comElectoral-
Vote.com
RasmussenNBCCNNFHQNPR....
Date

6/126/126/126/126/136/56/106/116/9
Obama (O)

175182178175185153153142143
Obama-Lean (OL)

727069597547376557
Tossup (T)

11768758338138154129111
McCain-Lean (ML)

6472706866846956110
McCain (M)

110146143153174116125146117
Obama Total

247252247234260200190207200
McCain Total

174218213221240200194202227
Obama Index

303.9286.4278277.3277.2276.4273.4269.7266.1

Florida
27TMLMLMMLTTMLML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLOLOLTTTT
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTT
Michigan
17TTTTOLTTTT
Georgia
15MLMMMMMLMLMML
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TMLMLMLMLMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTMLTTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOLO
Indiana
11MMLMLMLMMLMLTM
Missouri
11TTTTMLMLTTML
Tennessee
11MLMMMMMMMML
Washington
11OOOOOOLOLOLOL
Minnesota
10OLOOOOOLTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLTOLTTTT
Colorado
9TOLOLOLTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMMMLMMLMLMML
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMML
S. Carolina
8MLMLMMLMMMMLM
Conn.
7OOOLTOOOOOL
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLTTOLT
Oregon
7OOOOOOLOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMLMML
Mississippi
6MLMMMLMMLMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMLMMM
Nevada
5TMLTMLTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLTTOLTMLTT
W. Virginia
5MLMMLMLMMMLMML
Maine
4OOOOOOLOLOOL
NH
4OLTTOLTTTTT
Alaska
3MMLMLMLMMMMLM
Delaware
3OOLOOLOOOOLOL
Montana
3MMLMLMLMMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3MTMLMLMMLMTM
S. Dakota
3MMMLMMMMMM

































































Notes:
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.