Wednesday, June 18, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 18

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/18: Obama Index: 295 (was 288). Big moves for Obama, led by 3 projections moving Ohio from Tossup to Obama-Lean.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: Florida moves from McCain to Tossup, as 5 projections now have it as a Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, OK, UT, WY - 28 EVs
(Added AZ, KS, TX to the table - no longer Unanimous solid McCain).

The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVs538.
com
Elect. Proj.Open LeftEV.
com
CNNRMNBCFHQNPR....
Date

6/186/186/186/186/176/186/56/116/9
Obama (O)

178161165158153185153153143
Obama-Lean (OL)

93123111865875475457
Tossup (T)

10480719313338138129111
McCain-Lean (ML)

11655518169668456110
McCain (M)

44119140120125174116146117
Obama Total

271284276244211260200207200
McCain Total

160174191201194240200202227
Obama Index

333310299289280277276272266

Texas
34MLMMMMMMMM
Florida
27TTTMLTMLTMLML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLOLOLOLTTT
Ohio
20OLOLOLTTTTTT
Michigan
17TOLTTTOLTTT
Georgia
15MLMMMMLMMLMML
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTMLTMLMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTTMLTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOLO
Indiana
11TMMLMLMLMMLTM
Missouri
11TTTTTMLMLTML
Tennessee
11MLMLMMMMMMML
Washington
11OOOOOLOOLOOL
Arizona
10MLMLMMMMMMM
Minnesota
10OOLOLOLTOOLOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLTOLTTT
Colorado
9OLTOLOLTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMLMMLMLMMLMML
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMML
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLMLMMMMLM
Conn.
7OOLOTOOOOOL
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLTOLTOLT
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOLOOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MMLMMLMLMMLMML
Kansas
6MLMMLMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MLMLMMLMMMLMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMLMM
Nevada
5TTMLTTTTTT
New Mexico
5TOLOLTMLOLTTT
W. Virginia
5MLMLMMLMLMMMML
Maine
4OOOOOLOOLOOL
NH
4OLOLOLOLTTTTT
Alaska
3MLMMLMLMMMMLM
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOLOL
Montana
3MLMMLMLMLMMLMLML
N. Dakota
3MLMTMLMMMLTM
S. Dakota
3MLMMMMMMMM




































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen

Here are the states that span 3 categories. Florida is removed from the list as EV.com moves it from McCain to McCain-Lean.

Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.

Indiana: 538 and FHQ now have it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

Minnesota: With Survey USA just out with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN's projection of a Tossup doesn't look like as much of an outlier.

New Mexico: Three projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
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We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.