Saturday, June 14, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 14

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/14: 538.com did a major change in the way they do their projections, and it gave Obama a big boost, moving their overall number from 285 to 308. and moving 9 states in Obama's direction, and one state in McCain's direction. The two changes they made was adding more historical polling data, going back to 1988, which show more volatility in polling than 2004 did. They also now assume that movement in national polls and state polls will eventually reflect in states which haven't been polled recently.

Obama Index: 286 (was 281), due to the changes in 538.com.

Here are the states that span 3 categories:

Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com and 538 have it as a toss-up - that likely won't last.

Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.

Indiana: Only Frontloading HQ still has it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won't last.

New Mexico: Three sources have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last. There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.

Map showing consensus of sources. New Mexico and Michigan move to Obama, Virginia to McCain.


<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Consensus solid states, not shown in the table below:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs

The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVs538.
com
Elect. Proj.Open LeftEV.comRas-
mussen
NBCCNNFHQNPR....
Date

6/146/126/126/126/136/56/106/116/9
Obama (O)

171175182175185153153142143
Obama-Lean (OL)

817270597547376557
Tossup (T)

99117688338138154129111
McCain-Lean (ML)

11364726866846956110
McCain (M)

71110146153174116125146117
Obama Total

252247252234260200190207200
McCain Total

184174218221240200194202227
Obama Index

308.5303.9286.4277.3277.2276.4273.4269.7266.1

Florida
27MLTMLMMLTTMLML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLOLOLTTTT
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTT
Michigan
17TTTTOLTTTT
Georgia
15MLMLMMMMLMLMML
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTMLMLMLMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTMLTTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOLO
Indiana
11TMMLMLMMLMLTM
Missouri
11TTTTMLMLTTML
Tennessee
11MMLMMMMMMML
Washington
11OOOOOOLOLOLOL
Minnesota
10OOLOOOOLTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLTOLTTTT
Colorado
9OLTOLOLTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMLMMLMMLMLMML
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMML
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLMLMMMMLM
Conn.
7OLOOTOOOOOL
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLTTOLT
Oregon
7OLOOOOOLOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMLMML
Mississippi
6MLMLMMLMMLMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMLMMM
Nevada
5TTMLMLTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLTOLTMLTT
W. Virginia
5MLMLMMLMMMLMML
Maine
4OOOOOOLOLOOL
NH
4TOLTOLTTTTT
Alaska
3MLMMLMLMMMMLM
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOLOL
Montana
3MLMMLMLMMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMTMLMMLMTM
S. Dakota
3MLMMMMMMMM


































































Notes:
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.