Tuesday, June 24, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 24

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. Please also check out our Senate Tracker, and the House tracker will be introduced later this month.

Update 6/24: DCW Obama Index (explanation below) goes up 1 to 299. Various projections moved pro-Obama and pro-McCain. (Previous erroneous comment about OpenLeft removed - wrong data was included).

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs. (Note, newly added RCP has CA as Obama-Lean. For now, I'm not adding CA to the table - we'll see if RCP stays at this projection)
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KY (added), OK, UT, WY - 36 EVs

The sources are sorted by each projections Obama Index. The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVs538.comElect. Proj.Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNNBCFHQ....
Date

6/246/246/246/246/246/246/186/56/22
Obama (O)

18318716917291200153153153
Obama-Lean (OL)

123971074014784584754
Tossup (T)

86809117013714133138129
McCain-Lean (ML)

1107046517066698471
McCain (M)

3310412510593174125116131
Obama Total

306284276212238284211200207
McCain Total

143174171156163240194200202
Obama Index

344319309299291287280276275

Texas
34MLMMMMLMMMM
Florida
27TTTTTMLTTML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLTOLOLOLTT
Ohio
20OLOLOLTTOLTTT
Michigan
17OLOLTTTOLTTT
Georgia
15MLMLMLTMLMMLMLML
New Jersey
15OOOLOLOLOOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTTTTMLMLMLML
Virginia
13OLTTTTMLTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOOL
Indiana
11TMMLMLTMMLMLT
Missouri
11TTTTTMLTMLT
Tennessee
11MLMLMMMMMMM
Washington
11OOOOOLOOLOLO
Arizona
10MLMLMMMMMMM
Minnesota
10OLOLOLOLOLOTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOOLOLTTT
Colorado
9OLTOLTTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMLMMLMLMMLMLM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLMLMMMMML
Conn.
7OOOTOLOOOO
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLOLTTOL
Oregon
7OLOLOLTOLOOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MLMLMMLMMMLMLM
Kansas
6MLMMLMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MLMLMMLMLMMMLM
Nebraska
5MLMMMMMMMLM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLOLTOLMLTT
W. Virginia
5TMLMMLMMMLMM
Maine
4OOOOOLOOLOLO
NH
4OLOOOTOLTTT
Alaska
3TMMLTMLMMMML
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOOL
Montana
3TMMLMLMLMMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMTMLMMMMLT
S. Dakota
3TMMMMMMMM


538.comElect. Proj.Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNNBCFHQ....










































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen
RCP - RealClearPolitics

Here are the states that span 3 categories.
  • Alaska: 2 at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen's own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
  • Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
  • Georgia: Electoral-Vote.com moves it to Tossup, based on the InsiderAdvantage poll
  • Indiana: Three sources have it as a toss-up, but 2 sources have it as Strong McCain. But new SurveyUSA poll out today gives Obama a 1 pt lead.
  • Minnesota: With Survey USA out on June 16 with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN's projection of a Tossup doesn't look like as much of an outlier.
  • Montana (NEW): 538 now has it as a Tossup. 2 Projections have it as Strong-McCain. Last poll was in April.
  • New Hampshire: Three projections move this former? battleground state to Obama-Strong.
  • New Mexico: Five projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
  • North Dakota - Three have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
  • Oregon (NEW) - One of the few Obama states that seems to be closing, with Obama only up by 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. 1 Tossup, 1 Obama-Strong.
  • South Dakota: 538 has it as Tossup.
  • Virgina (New): 538 has it as Obama-Lean, Rasmussen at McCain-Lean
  • West Virginia: 538 has it as Tossup.
  • Wisconsin: Electoral-Vote.com is the first to move this former battleground state to Obama-Strong.
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

What is the Obama Index? The Overall DCW Obama Index is just a straight average of the Obama Index for each projection. What is the Obama Index for each projection? For all projections other than FiveThirtyEight, the Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the Electoral Votes (EVs) in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean. (And obviously 0% of the Solid McCain states). For FiveThirtyEight, we use his overall estimate of Obama's EVs. (See below for how we determine FiveThirtyEight's state projections).


FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Obama Index for 538 based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.