Monday, July 28, 2008

A 9 Point Bounce?

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Is this the bounce we've been waiting for? Start of a trend or outlier?

Posted by DocJess at 10:00 AM

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Mike W. Miller's avatar

Mike W. Miller · 872 weeks ago

It's not a 9-point *bounce*, it's a 9-point *spread*. There isn't a single *bounce* on that chart, it's all reasonable single point changes from day to day, which is totally to be expect and well inside the margin of error. Changing 9 points from one day to the next -- *that* would be a bounce.
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Mike's avatar

Mike · 872 weeks ago

The statistics don't lie. It's about 95% real increase and 5% outlier as the Max MoE of each poll (the poll at 45% and the poll at 49%) is 2%. We'll have to wait for McCain to drop another point since we don't get anything more precise; however, my guess is that if we had the decimal places and had the actual MoE instead of just the maximum we'd see that he's about at the 95% mark as well for his change in support being significant.

The MoE of the difference is likely about 3.5% for this poll, Obama's 9 point lead is well outside that range. He's likely got at least a 5 point lead and possibly a few more points than 9.
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Yamaka's avatar

Yamaka · 872 weeks ago

RCP Average gives BHO only a 5% lead, as is Rasmussen Tracking, which has an error margin of +/- 3%. Therefore, "9 point Berlin Bounces" is just a noise, not any real signal.

Gallup.com long term trend line since March 7 has not changed at all. McCain and BHO are nearly tied if you give 3-5% error margin for the polls.

Only the VP naming will break out the trend, or the first Debate. Remember, 6 out of 9 July front-runners have really lost the GE in the past.
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SarahLawrence Scott's avatar

SarahLawrence Scott · 872 weeks ago

My guess is that it's neither noise, nor entirely a bounce (meaning it entirely goes away), nor the start of a trend (meaning it keeps going). Although it might come back a little, my hunch is that we'll see Obama's advantage average a few points higher after the trip than in mid-July. That is, of course, until the next big event, which will probably be the VP announcements. And watch Florida--I have a feeling the trip helped there in particular there.
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Blame's avatar

Blame · 872 weeks ago

Its a real but tempery bounce (that being McCain's temper). By November Obama will be lucky if his tour acounts for 1/2 a point.

But 1/2 a point is good. Obama's team is the best, and all these little boosts will acumilate. He has had a good week.

No campaign survives contact with the enemy, but I would imagine the plan is to slowly chip away for about 7% with two weeks to go (a lot of that being voter registration). Then there will be a massive advertising blitz, with no holds barred. Obama wins that due to more money, and having kept his amunition but looses the gain, not to the bradley effect, but to those whose hearts say Obama but wallets say McCain. Finaly the Obama ground Army gets out the vote. Obama wins by 9%.
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Peter Zenger's avatar

Peter Zenger · 872 weeks ago

I didn't respond to the survey question. The third option that was not included was "statistically insignificant." Going from 48-41 to 49-40 is not a 9 point bounce it is a 1.5 to 2.4 point bounce depending on rounding. 3 percentage points are generally within the margin of error for any survey, so this is not significant movement. With that said, it is better to be going up instead of down, but I wouldn't get too excited about this.
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