WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Update 7/18: Latest projection: Obama leads 305-233, no change from the July 15 or July 13 forecasts. When the primaries ended in early June, it was thought we'd have a month of movement, followed by status quo until the VP picks and the conventions. That seems to be where we are.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | RCP | FHQ | RM | 538.com | CNN | NBC | .... |
| Date | 7/18 | 7/18 | 7/18 | 7/15 | 7/16 | 7/16 | 7/18 | 6/27 | 7/9 | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 227 | 204 | 211 | 153 | 175 | 210 | 210 | 153 | 168 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 66 | 60 | 35 | 102 | 47 | 83 | 63 | 78 | 42 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 61 | 103 | 114 | 120 | 167 | 18 | 38 | 113 | 139 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 97 | 98 | 95 | 73 | 58 | 62 | 70 | 69 | 53 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 87 | 73 | 83 | 90 | 91 | 165 | 154 | 125 | 136 | ||
| Obama Total | 293 | 264 | 246 | 255 | 222 | 293 | 273 | 231 | 210 | ||
| McCain Total | 184 | 171 | 178 | 163 | 149 | 227 | 224 | 194 | 189 | ||
| Obama Est. | 330 | 323 | 315 | 309 | 308 | 298 | 292 | 286 | 282 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | ML | T | ML | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | O | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | T | T | T | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | M | T | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | ML | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | O | O | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | M | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | OL | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | T | ML | T | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | ML | T | M | M | ML | M | M | ML | |
| Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | RCP | FHQ | RM | 538.com | CNN | NBC | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska: Now only 1 at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen's own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
- Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
- Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
- Michigan: 1 Obama-Strong, 3 Tossups.
- Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
- New Hampshire: 4 at Tossup, 2 at Obama-Strong.
- New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
- North Dakota - Three now at tossup. Now that we finally have a recent poll, all tied at 43, it's the 2 McCain-Strongs, Election Projection and CNN that are the outliers. EP uses a formula that essentially treats the 2004 results as a recent state poll (modified by differences in the national numbers, which would move the ND results from 2004 by 5-6 points). But until more ND polls come out, the '04 results are going to be a drag on their projection. This is also effecting their Alaska projection. CNN - well, they're just lazy.
Oregon - 1 Tossup, 3 Obama-Strong.Pennsylvania: 1 Obama-Strong, 3 Tossups.- South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
- South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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