House Forecast - July 24

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

DCW House Forecast: 242.7 (+6.7) [was 242.3 (+6.3)]. SSP had the largest set of changes since the last House Forecast, moving 10 seats in the Democratic direction, (and 1 seat in the Republican direction). The other highlight was the addition of a seat to the chart for the first time - FL-25, which SSP moved from R to RL. The addition of Republican seats and the removal of Democratic seats will further shift the playing field into red territory, and increase the potential for larger Democratic gains. (Six Democratic seats are barely hanging on to the chart).

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Rep. first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

Update: And, of course, right after we post, CQPolitics updates 14 seats, 12 in the Democrats direction. A quick glance says CQ's estimate will go up to 7.1, and knock IL-8 and NY-19 off the board!

DCW House Forecast
State	Current	Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	CQ	Rothenberg	....
Date		7/24	7/22	7/14	7/18	7/4
Dem		7	8	10	3	6
Dem-Lean		16	21	16	24	15
Tossup		27	12	18	13	25
Rep-Lean		10	18	10	21	8
Rep		7	8	13	6	13
Dem-Prediction		35.3	34.4	33.8	32.9	32.1
Dem (not shown)		209	209	209	209	209
House Projection		244.3	243.4	242.8	241.9	241.1
Dem-Gain		8.3	7.4	6.8	5.9	5.1
IL 11 (Open)	R	DL	T	D	D	DL
NY 13 (Open)	R	DL	DL	D	D	T
NY 25 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
VA 11 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	DL	T
AK AL (Young)	R	T	T	T	T	T
MN 3 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NJ 3 (Open)	R	T	DL	T	RL	T
NJ 7 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NM 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 15 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
Oh 16 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NC 8 (Hayes)	R	T	RL	T	T	T
NY 26 (Open)	R	T	T	T	RL	T
WA 8 (Reichert)	R	T	T	RL	T	T
CO 4 (Musgrave)	R	T	RL	T	RL	T
LA 4 (Open)	R	T	RL	T	RL	T
IL 10 (Kirk)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	T
MI 7 (Wahlberg)	R	T	RL	T	RL	RL
NY 29 (Kuhl)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	T
CT 4 (Shays)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
NV 3 (Porter)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
OH 1 (Chabot)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
AL 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	R
FL 24 (Feeney)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
MO 6 (Graves)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
OH 2 (Schmidt)	R	R	RL	RL	RL	RL
NM 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
FL 13 (Buchanan)	R	R	R	RL	RL	R
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
PA 3 (English)	R	RL	R	R	RL	R
VA 2 (Drake)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
CA 4 (Open)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)	R	R	RL	R	R	R
FL 8 (Keller)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
MO 9 (Open)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
PA 6 (Gerlach)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
WV 2 (Moore Capito)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
WY AL (Cubin)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
LA 6 (Cazayoux)	D	T	T	T	T	T
AL 5 (Open)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
KS 2 (Boyda)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
TX 22 (Lampson)	D	T	T	T	DL	T
FL 16 (Mahoney)	D	DL	DL	T	T	T
CA 11 (McNerney)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
PA 10 (Carney)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
GA 8 (Marshall)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	T
MS 1 (Childers)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	DL
OR 5 (Open)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 8 (Giffords)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IN 9 (Hill)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
PA 4 (Altmire)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
WI 8 (Kagen)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IL 14 (Foster)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	D
PA 11 (Kanjorski)	D	DL	D	D	DL	DL
MN 1 (Walz)	D	D	D	D	DL	DL
CT 5 (Murphy)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
GA 12 (Barrow)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
IL 8 (Bean)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
KS 3 (Moore)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
NY 19 (Hall)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
TX 23 (Rodriguez)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
		Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	CQ	Rothenberg	....

The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.