Monday, July 21, 2008

Senate Forecast - July 21

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DCW Senate Forecast: 55.8 (up from 55.6), highlighted by SSP and Cook moving NM and OR in the Democrats direction. The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DCW Senate Forecast
State
Current538
.com
EV
.com
Open
Left
Crystal BallCookSSPCQRoth.....
Date

7/197/197/176/187/177/196/185/20
Dem

1613141212131212
Dem-Lean

02242322
Tossup

24226043
Rep-Lean

54342532
Rep

1212141313141416
Dem-Prediction

1817171717161616
Dem '10/'12 Seats

3939393939393939
Senate Projection

5756565656555555
Dem-Gain

65555444

AK (Stevens)
RTTTTTRLRLRL
CO (Open)
RDDLDDLTDLTT
GA (Chambliss)
RRRLRRRRRR
KY (McConnell)
RRLTRLRRRRR
LA (Landrieu)
DDTDLDLDLDLDLT
ME (Collins)
RRLRLRRLRLRRLR
MN (Coleman)
RRLRLRLRLTRLTT
MS (Wicker)
RTTTTTRLTR
NC (Dole)
RRRRRLRLRLRR
NH (Sununu)
RDDDDLTDLTDL
NJ (Lautenberg)
DDDLDLDDDDD
NM (Open)
RDDDDLDLDDLDL
OR (Smith)
RRLRLRLRLTRLRLRL
VA (Open)
RDDDDDDDD

































Here are the seats that span 3 categories:
  • CO - Two projections have it as strong D, 3 as Tossup. Udall is up by 9 or more points in all polls since June.
  • KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
  • LA (Landrieu) (NEW): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
  • MS (Wicker): Rothenberg has it as a "Clear Advantage" for Wicker, but Rasmussen's poll out on 6/24 shows Wicker with a 1 point lead.
  • NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
  • NM (Open): Cook, who hasn't updated since May 23, has it as a Tossup. Udall has led by 15 points or more in all polls since Mid-May. Cook moved it to DL.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.