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DCW Senate Forecast: 56.1 (up from 55.9). More Alaska movement, from EV.Com, CQ and Crystal Ball. The Forecast has broken 56 for the first time!
The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)
The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:
|DemConWatch Senate Forecast|
|Crystal Ball||Cook||CQ||Open Left||SSP||Roth||....|
|Dem '08 Projection||18||18||17||17||17||17||17||16|
|Dem '10/'12 Seats||39||39||39||39||39||39||39||39|
|Dem Senate Projection||57||57||56||56||56||56||56||55|
Here are the seats that span 3 categories:
KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
- LA (Landrieu): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
- MN : 538 at Rep-Strong.
- NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.