Saturday, July 12, 2008

National polls tightening - but are the states?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

The national polls have definitely tightened - by how much is unclear, but they have tightened. The new Newsweek poll has Obama only up 3, and Rasmussen has it tied for the first time since Obama won the nomination. But if there is a tightening, it's not showing up in the key state polls yet, as far as we can see. Missouri just gave Obama his largest lead ever today, 48-43. Let us know if any other state polls are showing a tightened race.

Update: Others are also trying to dissect how much the national polls have tightened, and the consensus is, really not very much. OpenLeft says " McCain is about 0.9%-1.0% closer to Obama than he was over most of the last month.", and DHinMI at Kos explains why both Newsweek polls should be taken with a grain of salt.