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The national polls have definitely tightened - by how much is unclear, but they have tightened. The new Newsweek poll has Obama only up 3, and Rasmussen has it tied for the first time since Obama won the nomination. But if there is a tightening, it's not showing up in the key state polls yet, as far as we can see. Missouri just gave Obama his largest lead ever today, 48-43. Let us know if any other state polls are showing a tightened race.
Update: Others are also trying to dissect how much the national polls have tightened, and the consensus is, really not very much. OpenLeft says " McCain is about 0.9%-1.0% closer to Obama than he was over most of the last month.", and DHinMI at Kos explains why both Newsweek polls should be taken with a grain of salt.
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SarahLawrence Scott · 874 weeks ago
Detecting a 3% drop in support in an individual state is tough enough, but the timing makes it nearly impossible. States aren't polled so often at this stage; a given polling agency might look at them once per month. The odds of them being polled right at the peak of one candidate's support are very small, so they're not even going to show the full drop.
benjo · 874 weeks ago
If you look at the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, they're showing the same thing they were two weeks ago: a 3-5 point Obama lead
Mike in Maryland · 874 weeks ago
If McSame is picking up votes in Utah, Wyoming, Alabama, Kansas, etc., those are 'wasted votes' inasmuch that he will almost certainly win those states without needing additional support.
The same applies to Senator Obama - he shouldn't need additional support in New York, Maryland, California, etc., since he should win those states running away, thus any additional support would be 'wasted votes'.
The race is staying tight in such states as Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, etc. Those are the states that Mc"needs a"Cain needs to get more support to make the EV count change. But since they're still tight, the EV count isn't changing much, if at all.
I think a lot of the 'tightening' is the result of the pollsters doing slight tweaks to the polls, making it difficult for the public to discern the tweaks. I think they are doing this to make the national polls (which don't mean squat since it's 51 separate elections, not one national election) because the public isn't really paying attention. The public tends to look only at the national numbers, and don't look at the state figures at all. After all, a lot of the public thinks whoever is leading in the national poll is the leader, period, and thus will win the election without even considering the Electoral College, 51 separate elections, etc.
It would be interesting for one or more of the pollsters to have a question about the Electoral College, and see how many people have some idea of what it is. I'd bet that less than 25% would state they they've 'heard' of it, and even fewer would be able to give a cogent answer as to what it is.
Mike
Will · 874 weeks ago