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This is the DemConWatch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web. Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Update 7/15: Latest projection: Obama leads 305-233, no change from July 9. Four projections moved South Dakota in Obama's direction, but with only 3 EVs, not enough to change the overall numbers.
A history chart is at the bottom of this post.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: IN moves from Tossup to McCain.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | RCP | FHQ | 538.com | RM | CNN | NBC | .... |
| Date | 7/14 | 7/15 | 7/15 | 7/15 | 7/13 | 7/15 | 7/14 | 6/27 | 7/9 | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 227 | 197 | 200 | 153 | 175 | 242 | 210 | 153 | 168 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 66 | 67 | 39 | 102 | 47 | 51 | 83 | 78 | 42 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 61 | 103 | 121 | 120 | 167 | 13 | 18 | 113 | 139 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 97 | 98 | 101 | 73 | 58 | 78 | 62 | 69 | 53 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 87 | 73 | 77 | 90 | 91 | 151 | 165 | 125 | 136 | ||
| Obama Total | 293 | 264 | 239 | 255 | 222 | 293 | 293 | 231 | 210 | ||
| McCain Total | 184 | 171 | 178 | 163 | 149 | 229 | 227 | 194 | 189 | ||
| Obama Est. | 330 | 322 | 312 | 309 | 308 | 303 | 298 | 286 | 282 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | ML | T | ML | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | O | OL | OL | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | O | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | T | T | T | ML | M | ML | ML | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | M | T | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | O | OL | T | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | T | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | ML | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | O | O | T | T | O | OL | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | M | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | OL | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | T | ML | T | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | ML | T | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | RCP | FHQ | 538.com | RM | CNN | NBC | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska: Now only 1 at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen's own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
- Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
- Iowa (NEW): Two at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
- Michigan: 1 Obama-Strong, 3 Tossups.
- Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
- New Hampshire: 4 at Tossup, 3 at Obama-Strong.
- New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
- North Dakota - Three now at tossup. Now that we finally have a recent poll, all tied at 43, it's the 2 McCain-strongs that are the outliers.
- Oregon - 1 Tossup, 3Obama-Strong.
- Pennsylvania: 1 Obama-Strong, 3 Tossups.
- South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
- South Dakota (NEW): 1 Tossup, 4 McCain-Strong
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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