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NO, NOT US.
But now, it turns out that the Iraqis are behind Obama’s plan to withdraw troops in 16 months. Most Americans don’t read Der Spiegel, so this might have flown below the radar, except that the White House disseminated it to everyone on their external press release list, instead of the intended internal press release list.
The quote, from Iraqi PM al-Maliki is:
"US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."Now we can watch the “Iraq” question in all the polls. Because now the question is not “who do you think would better handle Iraq” but instead “Since the Iraqis want us to leave, should we accept the request of a sovereign government that we have set up, or should we ignore that government and be an on-going occupying force?”
OK, I made that up, pollsters won’t likely ask that question, because most polls don’t use the words “sovereign” and “occupying” – but they will find a way to dumb down the question. They will poll on whether or not the fact that Iraqis want us out affects respondents’ view of what we should do in Iraq.
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C.S.Strowbridge · 873 weeks ago
SarahLawrence Scott · 873 weeks ago
I chose "other." Iraq will just vanish as a major issue. I think it most likely that McCain will find a way to move to Obama's position, with some little semantic or tactical difference to make it seem like he hasn't. That turns it into something like the Obama-Clinton healthcare debate during the primaries. Their may be a small difference to argue about, but nothing fundamental.
So does that translate into a rise in support for Obama? Unfortunately, no. It's a repeat of Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran. As the Bush administration moves toward Obama's policies, it defuses the issues but doesn't seem to increase Obama's support. (I know I just confounded Bush' and McCain's foreign policies, but it's hard to find much daylight there!)
What it will do is drop the importance of Iraq in the crosstabs. McCain will probably still maintain his advantage there; as people pay less and less attention to that issue, their last evaluation will stay in place.
That doesn't mean it's not good for Obama. What it does is insulate him against news coming from Iraq. A rise (or drop) in violence? Political progress (or setback)? It won't matter so much if Obama and McCain have similar policies.
Good for the country, good for Obama's prospects, but no immediate impact in the topline of the polls.
That's my two cents, anyway.
tmess2 · 873 weeks ago
Chad_Nielson 57p · 873 weeks ago