Saturday, July 12, 2008

Veepstakes – July 2008

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

In our DCW final, Kathleen Sebelius beat Wes Clark 2:1. Not all that surprising, considering the comments, and considering she is no longer denying that she is being vetted.

Now, DCW is one group of people. Wes Clark won over at CQPolitics.

Over on MSNBC, it looks like the final round (which Chuck Todd has announced will begin on “Tuesday, July 14th”) will be Joe Biden vs. Hillary Clinton.

SUSA has done a bunch of head-to-head match-ups in various states, and often John Edwards comes out on top.

Back in March, the Washington Post had a poll showing none of the current pick faves (except Hillary if you go with MSNBC) with any appreciable traction.

A lot of it has to do with who is answering.
But a lot of the reality of who will get chosen depends on a number of factors that poll respondents (whether answering “professional” polls, or self-selecting on the internet) don’t necessarily consider.

First, Obama is going to leave in a bit for Europe and the Middle East. It will be less important how he is received there, than how Americans view how he handles “the world”. Will he overcome the Brandenburg Gate issue? How will he be received by the troops in Iraq? If he comes home “presidential” that changes the dynamic of the VP slot.

A really large question has to do with the HRC supporters, and whether Obama needs the “I won’t vote since Hillary’s not on the ballot” voters, and whether he can actually capture them. If he determines that he cannot win without her supporters, she’s on the ticket. If he determines that putting her on the ticket loses him more Republicans and Independents than he gains in her base, she doesn’t make the cut. (Rumor has it that she is not officially being vetted, per Howard Wolfson.) The question “Does putting a woman on the ticket make Hillary’s voters more or less likely to support the ticket?” hangs in the air.

For now, we have the DCW answer. If you have on-going comments are the situation evolves, you can always use the Open Thread - VP link on the left menu bar.