WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
In our DCW final, Kathleen Sebelius beat Wes Clark 2:1. Not all that surprising, considering the comments, and considering she is no longer denying that she is being vetted.
Now, DCW is one group of people. Wes Clark won over at CQPolitics.
Over on MSNBC, it looks like the final round (which Chuck Todd has announced will begin on “Tuesday, July 14th”) will be Joe Biden vs. Hillary Clinton.
SUSA has done a bunch of head-to-head match-ups in various states, and often John Edwards comes out on top.
Back in March, the Washington Post had a poll showing none of the current pick faves (except Hillary if you go with MSNBC) with any appreciable traction.
A lot of it has to do with who is answering. But a lot of the reality of who will get chosen depends on a number of factors that poll respondents (whether answering “professional” polls, or self-selecting on the internet) don’t necessarily consider.
First, Obama is going to leave in a bit for Europe and the Middle East. It will be less important how he is received there, than how Americans view how he handles “the world”. Will he overcome the Brandenburg Gate issue? How will he be received by the troops in Iraq? If he comes home “presidential” that changes the dynamic of the VP slot.
A really large question has to do with the HRC supporters, and whether Obama needs the “I won’t vote since Hillary’s not on the ballot” voters, and whether he can actually capture them. If he determines that he cannot win without her supporters, she’s on the ticket. If he determines that putting her on the ticket loses him more Republicans and Independents than he gains in her base, she doesn’t make the cut. (Rumor has it that she is not officially being vetted, per Howard Wolfson.) The question “Does putting a woman on the ticket make Hillary’s voters more or less likely to support the ticket?” hangs in the air.
For now, we have the DCW answer. If you have on-going comments are the situation evolves, you can always use the Open Thread - VP link on the left menu bar.
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Steve_Steblay 1p · 874 weeks ago
to 1,000,000 with increasing percentages.
Allyn_Chevalier 1p · 874 weeks ago
DocJess 71p · 874 weeks ago
1. He has not attacked John McCain directly (and Gramm's "whiners" would have had others ALLLLLL over it)
2. The MSM is completely disinterested in slapping McCain around, or even presenting the truth about him (except Olbermann, Maddow, and Abrams on MSNBC) and therefore, most people don't know because THEY DON'T READ.
3. It's EARLY yet and people honestly have not made up their minds, and Obama is giving them time to view him. I think the strategy is to stay above the fray, go to Europe, give people time to decompress before the Olympics and then go into autumn mode.
Independent Voter · 874 weeks ago
And here is Obama's ad in response: http://s4.video.blip.tv/1480004139606/Tpmtv-Obama...
SarahLawrence Scott · 874 weeks ago
The "internals" for McCain are terrible. His voters are less enthusiastic and less certain. He's steering to the right, and it's costing him in the middle (http://www.gallup.com/poll/108775/Fewer-Americans...But if he steers back toward the middle, it will cost him on the right. If you look at, say, the RCP graph of poll numbers over time, you'll see that Obama is holding steady, while McCain has lost support. (I'd actually say that Obama appears to be gaining a little, with each high on the graph being a little higher than the previous one, but it's very subtle.) If Obama's holding steady and McCain's losing, what does that mean? It means that McCain's support is very soft, and people are flipping between him and undecided (with perhaps a few looking at Barr). Even if those undecideds break for McCain 80 to 20, it will only leave the election close.
Is Obama's "move to the center" hurting him? I do see that the fraction of voters who view him "very favorably" has declined a bit in some polls, and that's probably some hard-core supporters furious about things like FISA. But the groundwork he lays now to appeal to the center won't really pay off until after Labor Day, when the undecided independents begin taking a close look at the candidates, and any "flip-flop" nonsense will seem like old news.
I understand the desire to see him "close the deal," but he doesn't want to peak to soon.
In the mean time, we stay energized. We really have to commit ourselves to this campaign. It's possible, if things go badly, that it may end up very close. If things go well, how exciting (and good for the country) would it be to see Obama win places like Texas or South Dakota? Let's do what we can to make it happen!
Ivanv · 874 weeks ago
The poll numbers are already starting to show Obama's substantial lead, 'closing the deal' only happens on election day (think about when he was running against Rodham Clinton and reports said he couldn't do it) and his 'move to the center' is over-hyped and over-reported. If he says nothing he's an elitist ('he doesn't care about the common man'). If he supports 527s and other issues he's attacked as too liberal, but when he introduces himself to more voters, he's said to be 'moving to center.'
McCain had months headstart, he should have a double digit lead yet he doesn't. The race ends in November, I trust Obama to run a strong campaign.
And the attacks on him because he doesn't jump all over 'whiners' is silly. He'll pick his time to re-introduce McCain's minions' foul-ups. Who cares if he's physically strong, his job is to be President not Mr. Olympia.
Leah 85p · 874 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 874 weeks ago
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/postph...
Chad_Nielson 57p · 874 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 874 weeks ago