Sunday, July 27, 2008

Sunday with the Senators – Late July Edition

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

AlaskaMark Begich (D) is still besting Ted Stevens (R),and with leaners, has crossed the all important 50% mark, at 52/44.

Remember, Stevens won his last election with 72% of the vote, and has been there longer than a lot of people have been alive (since 1968) – and don’t forget,
there’s an indictment coming.

Louisiana – John Kennedy (R) has decided to campaign with David Vitter (R), current junior senator from Louisiana. If you don’t remember Vitter, think back, and think “DC Madam” and the only member of Congress whose phone number showed up on her client roster, and you’re right back with David. He cried, he begged forgiveness. Will it play in Louisiana?

Meanwhile, Mary Landrieu (D) will be attending a fund raiser in her honour chaired by Mike Bloomberg (I). It’s this Tuesday, and tickets start at $1,000.

Kennedy will be pushing “MORE DRILLING” Whether this will play in a week when there came a 12 mile (420,000 gallon) oil spill just off the coast is anybody’s guess. My guess is “no”.

Maine – Susan Collins (R) is still holding a 10 point lead (50/40) over Tom Allen (D). There are some who would say this is really good, but this is actually down from previous polling, showing Collins up by 25%. I don’t know, trend lines and all that.

Minnesota – While the current polls don’t look great for Al Franken (D), he has finally responded to Norm Coleman’s attacks on Franken’s previous career. You may remember that Franken used to be a comic. He said lots of funny things, and some things that some people considered “over the line”, from an “it’s too dirty to be funny” perspective. Here is Franken’s response; the polls over the next several weeks will hold a better idea of how things are playing out there.

North Carolina – It might seem to have been a good week for Liddy Dole (R) since the newest poll has her up 47/38/2 over Kay Hagan (D) and Chris Cole (L) However, that’s down from the 12 point lead she had a week earlier and below the RCP average. Ads will be going up from the DNC soon, and then we’ll have a better idea of how things are going.

Oregon – Don’t say I didn’t warn you. The newest poll shows a dead heat at 46 each for Jeff Merkley (D) and Gordon Smith (R).

Virginia – A bad, bad week for Jim Gilmore (R). . Gilmore has a problem with lies and their ramifications in his quarterly financial disclosure filings.