Democratic Convention Watch: Your Senate Forecast

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Your Senate Forecast

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The new Senate forecast is up, and suddenly the professionals are moving Alaska. But why should they have all the fun? How many Senate seats do YOU think we're going to win? Please use the comments section to list your picks.

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Dan_in_upstate_NY · 872 weeks ago

Hate to be a stickler, but this poll is vague...are you including Lieberman in the count or not?

Pick-ups in NH, VA, CO, NM, and AK seem to be pretty secure. So I'd put the count at 55 (NOT including Lieberman). MS is a real possibility, as is OR. So 57, if it's a very good night. Beyond those, I see other pick-ups as very, very unlikely (unless Al Franken does something drastic to improve his image, or Coleman does something awful to ruin his image).

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1 reply · active 872 weeks ago

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DocJess 71p · 872 weeks ago

Me personally, no, I count him as a turncoat, lying @#(&^@% -- but that's just a personal opinion.

It shouldn't matter for the count -- if YOU as the respondent, think that Joe will be allowed to caucus with the Democrats in January, you count him. If you think they'll throw him out, you don't. The idea is the TOTAL count, whatsoever you believe that will be.

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tmess2 · 872 weeks ago

At this point, I am seeing a +7. I think we will get NH, VA, CO, NM, and AK and hold LA. I see the following 5 as maybes and am guessing that we get two of the five split: OR, NC, MN, ME, and the special election in MS. (And don't ask me which 2 yet).

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Jack · 872 weeks ago

I'm going to take the liberty of counting Lieberman.

I'll take 57 - defend all seats, with pickups in NH, VA, NM, CO and AK, and figure about one of two of MS and OR. The odds of picking up both and/or picking up other senate seats are balanced out by the possibility of losing CO and AK, and the outside chance of losing LA or NH.

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KELL · 872 weeks ago

I went with 57 myself, however after reading the comments about Lieberman, I reconsidered thinking about going to 56. I personally want his chairmanship removed if he speaks at the GOP convention, and I assume he'll caucus with the GOP if he loses the chairman's position. I still think he'll stay as he wants to be in the majority, with a party that controls the White House, and with the party that he was the VP nominee. So solid pick-ups (as everyone says) in VA & NM, likely pick-up in NH, lean pick-ups in CO & AK, and at least in the current lean GOP races of OR, MN, ME, MS-B. Democrats get to 60 with a great night sweeping those last four, which then begs the question do they also get NC which at that point, who cares if Lieberman caucuses with the Democrats.

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Peter Zenger · 871 weeks ago

I think there is too much harping about Lieberman in the senate and the Blue Dogs in the house. If we were a European style parliament/prime minister model you would frequently have a coalition government with a mainstream labor and several fringe (green/socialist) parties. Our model encourages coalition partners to work together within a larger political party. If all of the Blue Dogs in the house voted for a republican speaker, Pelosi would not have ascended to power.

Each member of congress represents first and foremost his constituents. The people of Connecticut sent Lieberman to the Senate for another six years. Let's see if he tries to run for reelection in 2012 or decides that he has burned too many bridges. In 2012, I doubt the Republicans in Connecticut will support him as they did in 2006. In 2012, we will have a mainline Republican and a mainline Democrat and Lieberman will be the odd man out.

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