Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Do I hear 60 calling?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

With Ted Stevens, it was always a case of which came first, the election or the indictment. But when I wrote this past Sunday

"Remember, Stevens won his last election with 72% of the vote, and has been there longer than a lot of people have been alive (since 1968) – and don’t forget, there’s an indictment coming."
I had no idea we were T-H-I-S close.

The indictment presents two interesting sides. First, the Alaska primary is not until 26 August, and one must withdraw one’s name 45 days before the primary date, or stay on the ballot. So Stevens stays. Now, Stevens has almost $1.5 million cash on hand, and if you add all 6 of his other competitors together, they don’t have half a million. In fact, in total, they have $71,298 cash on hand as of 30 June.

If he wins the primary, Stevens can withdraw from the general up to 45 days before Election Day, giving him a few weeks to make a decision, but if he doesn’t want to pull his name, the State GOP doesn’t seem able to make him. And even if they did, who would they run? A Republican who would have lost to Stevens in the primary? Sarah Palin with her pending legal problems? Key words “abuse of power” “firing/not firing” “child custody battle” “sister”.

Expect a lot of the professional pollsters to suddenly move those “Republican Lean” and “Toss-up” ratings.

The second side is the money that Stevens PAC has doled out.
"Stevens' Northern Lights PAC has doled out almost $145,000 to GOP candidates this cycle, including $10,000 checks to Republicans Elizabeth Dole, Pat Roberts and Gordon Smith, all running for re-election against credible challengers this year, as well as smaller checks to John Sununu, Roger Wicker, Mike Johanns, Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn. The PAC also handed a $5,000 check to John McCain's presidential campaign."
Don’t campaigns normally give back money from criminals? Oh, sorry, “an indictment is not a conviction.”

Remember, Stevens still has his supporters.
"Another Republican, Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, said, "I have known Ted Stevens for 28 years, and I have always found him to be impeccably honest."