Presidential Forecast - 7/25 - Mixed messages

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Obama leads 303-235, even with the our previous forecast. McCain gains in MN, MI and OH, Obama in PA and FL. (Initial post had it as 304-224, but there were errors as noted in the comments).

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. MI moves from Obama to Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	RCP	538 .com	RM	CNN	NBC	.…
Date		7/24.	7/24.	7/25.	7/23.	7/25.	7/25.	7/22.	7/24.	7/9.
Obama-Strong (O)		210	200	197	175	153	231	210	153	168
Obama-Lean (OL)		54	60	49	47	85	42	63	68	42
Tossup (T)		117	107	118	167	137	38	38	128	139
McCain-Lean (ML)		70	98	91	58	64	73	62	64	53
McCain-Strong (M)		87	73	83	91	99	154	165	125	136
Obama Total		264	260	246	222	238	273	273	221	210
McCain Total		157	171	174	149	163	227	227	189	189
Obama Est.		326	321	313	308	302	297	292	284	282
Texas	34	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T
Pennsylvania	21	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	O	OL	OL	T
Ohio	20	T	T	ML	T	T	T	T	T	T
Michigan	17	OL	OL	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Georgia	15	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Indiana	11	T	ML	T	T	T	ML	M	ML	ML
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O
Arizona	10	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Minnesota	10	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	O	T	OL
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	ML	ML	T	M	M	M	M	M
Iowa	7	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T
Oregon	7	O	O	OL	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Mississippi	6	M	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Alaska	3	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML
Delaware	3	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	O	O	O
Montana	3	T	T	OL	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	M	T	T	ML	ML	ML	M	ML
S. Dakota	3	M	ML	T	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
		Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	RCP	538 .com	RM	CNN	NBC	.…

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Here are the states that span 3 categories.

• Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
• Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
• Minnesota (NEW): 5 at Obama-Strong, 1 at Tossup
  
• Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
  
• New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
  
• North Dakota - 2 at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
• Pennsylvania (NEW): 1 Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
  
• South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
• South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 4 McCain-Strong
  

We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.