Saturday, July 26, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 7/25 - Mixed messages

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Obama leads 303-235, even with the our previous forecast. McCain gains in MN, MI and OH, Obama in PA and FL. (Initial post had it as 304-224, but there were errors as noted in the comments).

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. MI moves from Obama to Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsOpen LeftElect. Proj.EV.
com
FHQRCP538
.com
RMCNNNBC.…
Date

7/24.7/24.7/25.7/23.7/25.7/25.7/22.7/24.7/9.
Obama-Strong (O)

210200197175153231210153168
Obama-Lean (OL)

546049478542636842
Tossup (T)

1171071181671373838128139
McCain-Lean (ML)

709891586473626453
McCain-Strong (M)

8773839199154165125136
Obama Total

264260246222238273273221210
McCain Total

157171174149163227227189189
Obama Est.

326321313308302297292284282

Texas
34MLMLMLMLMLMMMM
Florida
27TTTTTMLMLTT
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLTOLOOLOLT
Ohio
20TTMLTTTTTT
Michigan
17OLOLTTTOLOLTT
Georgia
15MLMLMLMLMLMMMLML
New Jersey
15OOOOLOLOOOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTTTTMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTTTTTT
Indiana
11TMLTTTMLMMLML
Missouri
11TTTTTMLMLTT
Washington
11OOOOOLOOOLO
Arizona
10MLMLMMMMMMM
Minnesota
10OOOLOOLOOTOL
Wisconsin
10OOLOOLOLOOOLOL
Colorado
9TTTTTOLOLTT
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMLM
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLTMMMMM
Iowa
7OLOLOOLOLOLOLTT
Oregon
7OOOLOLOLOOOLOL
Arkansas
6MMLMMMMMMLM
Mississippi
6MMLMLMLMLMMMM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLOLTOLOLTT
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMMMMMLM
Maine
4OOOOOLOOOLO
NH
4OLTTTTOLOLTT
Alaska
3MLMMLMLMLMMMML
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOO
Montana
3TTOLTMLMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMTTMLMLMLMML
S. Dakota
3MMLTMMMLMLMML


Open LeftElect. Proj.EV.
com
FHQRCP538
.com
RMCNNNBC.…






















































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Here are the states that span 3 categories.

  • Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
  • Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
  • Minnesota (NEW): 5 at Obama-Strong, 1 at Tossup
  • Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
  • New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
  • North Dakota - 2 at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
  • Pennsylvania (NEW): 1 Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
  • South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
  • South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 4 McCain-Strong
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.