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Obama leads 303-235, even with the our previous forecast. McCain gains in MN, MI and OH, Obama in PA and FL. (Initial post had it as 304-224, but there were errors as noted in the comments).
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. MI moves from Obama to Tossup.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | FHQ | RCP | 538 .com | RM | CNN | NBC | .… |
| Date | 7/24. | 7/24. | 7/25. | 7/23. | 7/25. | 7/25. | 7/22. | 7/24. | 7/9. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 210 | 200 | 197 | 175 | 153 | 231 | 210 | 153 | 168 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 54 | 60 | 49 | 47 | 85 | 42 | 63 | 68 | 42 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 117 | 107 | 118 | 167 | 137 | 38 | 38 | 128 | 139 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 70 | 98 | 91 | 58 | 64 | 73 | 62 | 64 | 53 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 87 | 73 | 83 | 91 | 99 | 154 | 165 | 125 | 136 | ||
| Obama Total | 264 | 260 | 246 | 222 | 238 | 273 | 273 | 221 | 210 | ||
| McCain Total | 157 | 171 | 174 | 149 | 163 | 227 | 227 | 189 | 189 | ||
| Obama Est. | 326 | 321 | 313 | 308 | 302 | 297 | 292 | 284 | 282 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | O | OL | OL | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | ML | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | OL | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | T | T | T | ML | M | ML | ML | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | T | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | T | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | OL | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | T | T | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | ML | T | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Open Left | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | FHQ | RCP | 538 .com | RM | CNN | NBC | .… | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
- Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
- Minnesota (NEW): 5 at Obama-Strong, 1 at Tossup
- Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.- North Dakota - 2 at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
- Pennsylvania (NEW): 1 Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
- South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
- South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 4 McCain-Strong
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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