Monday, July 14, 2008

House Forecast - July 14

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This is the DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web for the 2008 House elections. Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

DCW House Forecast: 242.3 (+6.3) [was 241.7 (+5.7)]. The biggest change was in everybody's favorite congressional district, NY-13, with Cook, CQ and SSP all moving it in a Dem direction. The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Rep. first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.


DCW House Tracker
State
CurrentCookCrystal BallCQSSPRothenberg....
Date

7/36/127/97/117/4
Dem

89486
Dem-Lean

1616231915
Tossup

2519131325
Rep-Lean

111021138
Rep

61251312
Dem-Prediction

35.5
33.333.132.332.1
Dem (not shown)

209209209209209
House Projection

244.5242.3242.1241.3241.1
Dem-Gain

8.5
6.36.15.35.1

IL 11 (Open)
RDLDDDLDL
NY 25 (Open)
RDLTDLDLDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
NY 13 (Open)
RDLTDDLT
AZ 1 (Open)
RTTDLTT
AK AL (Young)
RTTTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
Oh 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTTTRLT
NJ 3 (Open)
RTTRLTT
NY 26 (Open)
RTTRLTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTRLRLT
LA 4 (Open)
RTTRLRLT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTRLTRLT
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTRLRLRLT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTRLRLRL
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTRLRLRLT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTRLRLRLRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTRLRLRLRL
NV 3 (Porter)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRRLRLRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRRLRLRLRL
AL 2 (Open)
RRLRLRLRR
FL 24 (Feeney)
RRLRRLRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRLRLRR
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRRR
PA 3 (English)
RRLRRLRR
CA 4 (Open)
RRRRLRR
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLRRRR
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLRRRR
MO 9 (Open)
RRRRLRR
PA 6 (Gerlach)
RRRRLRR
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRLRRRR
WY AL (Cubin)
RRRRLRR
AL 5 (Open)
DTTTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DTTTDLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTDLTTT
TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTDLTT
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLTTDLT
CA 11 (McNerney)
DTDLDLDLT
PA 10 (Carney)
DTDLDLDLT
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLDLT
MS 1 (Childers)
DTDLDLDLDL
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DDLDLDLDLT
OR 5 (Open)
DDLDLTDLDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDLD
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDLDDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDLDD
GA 12 (Barrow)
DDDDLDD
IL 8 (Bean)
DDDDLDD
KS 3 (Moore)
DDDDDDL
NY 19 (Hall)
DDDDLDD
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDLDD


CookCrystal BallCQSSPRothenberg....





























































































































The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.