Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Collision

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

George Stephanopolous contends that if John McCain does not support the bail out bill, than it will die.

[I]t's not a free vote for him, Charlie. Everything I've heard today backs up (others are reporting) that if (McCain), that he goes no, this package would likely fail, and then he would bare the consequences for that. That is a huge political gamble. Which is why the administration is betting that, in the end, McCain will be for this package. But McCain's aides say he has not made up his mind, and one (aide) told me that McCain is determined to, quote, "be the champion of the little guy here."
The implications of this are huge as well as fascinating, if George is correct.

Think of the permutations of McCain's decision on the Fed plan itself, as well as the Democratic oversight provisions. If McCain votes with the Dems for oversight, and against the full $700 billion dollar package, what does that do to his base?

If he votes for the package, and against oversight, what does that do to any Main Street appeal he has?

If he votes for the $150 billion compromise the Democrats are floating, what does that do to the people funding and running his campaign?

You get the idea -- use the comments. While I have questions, I have no answers, and am looking forward to reading yours.

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wow, sounds like I need to have lots of wine and popcorn for Friday night.

also sounds like he needs to decide one way or another, by Friday.

I'm trying to avoid schadenfreude (or however you spell it, my German classes were a loooonng time ago)
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And to help him make this very difficult decision, he is consulting today with the former head of Merrill Lynch. The question is not what McCain thinks is best, it's what his political advisers will tell him to do. Now running for President -- John McPuppet.
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To borrow a line right now, what we do about the current mess is above my pay grade. I usually have an opinion on macroeconomic stuff, and I do play in the stock market, but 700 billion is an awe-inspiring figure, as is the possibility of a total collapse of our financial system.

So OK--this comes down to which candidate I trust more on this issue. No way I trust McCain--if I don't understand this well enough to form an opinion, I bet he doesn't either. Obama, while the financial system is not his passion, has shown signs that he knows something about it, and he certainly has the temperament to get good information and then make an informed decision, rather than a panic move (see: vice-presidential choices).

This really is a big deal--potentially even bigger than the election itself, because if this goes wrong we do have a chance of triggering a world-wide depression. And we can't wait until January to take whatever action needs to be done. This isn't posturing, this isn't the candidates showing how they would behave in a crisis; this is the real deal. Neither may be President yet, but what they do in the next week matters almost as much as if they were.
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