Thursday, September 25, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/25 - Pre-Debate Edition

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On the day before what will hopefully be the first debate, Obama increases by projection by 2 EVs, and now leads 286-252, led by movement in Colorado and North Carolina. OpenLeft has Obama exactly at 269, and is concerned about which state will put him over. The most obvious state, NH, is polling dead even this week.

(Friday morning update: CNN updated their map this morning, moving MI to Obama-Lean. This is not reflected in the numbers below).

We have a new tipping point state, VA.

Map changes: Towards Obama: CO: T->OL. Towards McCain: MT: ML->M.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, WV, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftFHQRCPCNNRMEV.
com
Elect. Proj.NBCEVs
Date

9/25.9/24.9/25.9/25.9/19.9/25.9/25.9/22.9/22.
Obama-Strong (O)

248195157164160193168157157
Obama-Lean (OL)

347465646362434576
Tossup (T)

29841531361155614314778
McCain-Lean (ML)

642714167553354967
McCain-Strong (M)

163158149158125174149140160
Obama Total

282269222228223255211202233
McCain Total

227185163174200227184189227
Obama Est.

308302288286283281281276270

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOOOOLOOLOO157
New Jersey
15OOOLOLOLOOOLOL172
Iowa
7OOOLOOLOLOLOLOL179
Washington
11OOOLOLOLOOLOLOL190
Oregon
7OOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLOLTOLOLOL202
Minnesota
10OOLOLTTOTTOL212
Pennsylvania
21OLOLTTOLOLTTOL233
Colorado
9OOLTOLTTOLTT242
Michigan
17OOLTOLTOLTTT259
Wisconsin
10OOLOLTTOLTTT269
Virginia
13OLTTTTTTTT282
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT287
NH
4TTTTTTTTT291
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTT311
Florida
27MLTTTTMLTTML338
Indiana
11MLMLTTMLMLTMLML349
N. Carolina
15MLTTTMLMLMLMLML364
Missouri
11MLMLTMLMLMMLTML375
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMLMLMTMLM380
Montana
3MMMLMMLMMMLML
Louisiana
9MMMMMLMMLMLM
Arkansas
6MMMMMLMMMLM
Alaska
3MMMLMMMMMM
Georgia
15MMMMMLMMMM
N. Dakota
3MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftFHQRCPCNNRMEV.
com
Elect. Proj.NBC....





















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.