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On the day before what will hopefully be the first debate, Obama increases by projection by 2 EVs, and now leads 286-252, led by movement in Colorado and North Carolina.
OpenLeft has Obama exactly at 269, and is concerned about which state will put him over. The most obvious state, NH, is polling dead even this week.
(Friday morning update: CNN updated their map this morning, moving MI to Obama-Lean. This is not reflected in the numbers below).
We have a new tipping point state, VA.
Map changes: Towards Obama: CO: T->OL. Towards McCain: MT: ML->M.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, WV, WI.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538 .com | Open Left | FHQ | RCP | CNN | RM | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | NBC | EVs |
| Date | 9/25. | 9/24. | 9/25. | 9/25. | 9/19. | 9/25. | 9/25. | 9/22. | 9/22. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 248 | 195 | 157 | 164 | 160 | 193 | 168 | 157 | 157 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 34 | 74 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 43 | 45 | 76 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 29 | 84 | 153 | 136 | 115 | 56 | 143 | 147 | 78 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 64 | 27 | 14 | 16 | 75 | 53 | 35 | 49 | 67 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 163 | 158 | 149 | 158 | 125 | 174 | 149 | 140 | 160 | ||
| Obama Total | 282 | 269 | 222 | 228 | 223 | 255 | 211 | 202 | 233 | ||
| McCain Total | 227 | 185 | 163 | 174 | 200 | 227 | 184 | 189 | 227 | ||
| Obama Est. | 308 | 302 | 288 | 286 | 283 | 281 | 281 | 276 | 270 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 68 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 72 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 93 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 103 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 115 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 146 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 150 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 153 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | 157 |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | 172 |
| Iowa | 7 | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | 179 |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | 190 |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | 197 |
| New Mexico | 5 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | 202 |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | OL | OL | T | T | O | T | T | OL | 212 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | OL | 233 |
| Colorado | 9 | O | OL | T | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | 242 |
| Michigan | 17 | O | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | 259 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | T | 269 |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 282 |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 287 |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 291 |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | ML | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | 338 |
| Indiana | 11 | ML | ML | T | T | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | 349 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | ML | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | 364 |
| Missouri | 11 | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | M | ML | T | ML | 375 |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | T | ML | M | 380 |
| Montana | 3 | M | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | ML | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| 538 .com | Open Left | FHQ | RCP | CNN | RM | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | NBC | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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Chad_Nielson 57p · 859 weeks ago
dem · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Roehl 38p · 859 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 859 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago
mindlessmissy 49p · 859 weeks ago
Lol ... jk ...
uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago
Think about this: Virginia and North Carolina have more electoral votes when combined than Ohio. They have more than Florida. They have more than New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire combined.
The decision to go for a wide map is paying dividends. It would be depressing right now to be depending on Ohio or Florida. Obama gave himself lots of ways to win, and didn't put all his eggs in one basket.
Chad_Nielson 57p · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 859 weeks ago
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...
Goodin' good ;)
Leah 85p · 859 weeks ago
Very important!!!
Please read:
http://www.truthout.org/article/rfk-jr-and-mike-p...
.
SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago
1) If there is not a "perfect match" between government databases a registration will be rejected
2) Color copies of your driver's license have to be included with your absentee ballot
I'll take them one at a time.
#1 is in explicit contradiction with this official document meant to help implement the Help American Vote Act:
http://www.eac.gov/election/docs/statewide_regist...
I'll quote from the relevant section: "States should avoid proffering protocols that automatically reject all
registration applications that do not result in a perfect match with a verification database, as such procedures may be impractical, unrealistic and result in the rejection of a large number of eligible voters. "
It's inaccurate to say that HAVA requires a "perfect match."
As far as #2, here's the requirements from the same document:
"2. Verification of voter registration. Generally, Section 303(a) of HAVA requires that
registration applications include either a valid driver’s license number or, if none, the last four
digits of a social security number. States are prohibited from accepting or processing
registration applications that do not have this information (with the exception of individuals who
do not possess either identifier). Moreover, HAVA requires States to match information
received on voter registration forms against driver's license and social security databases for the
purpose of verifying the accuracy of the information received from all new voter registrants.
Under Section 303(b), such validation provides an exemption to the voter identification
requirement for first-time registrants by mail if the information matches. States must take steps
to ensure that this matching or verification process is accomplished promptly and performed in a
uniform and non-discriminatory manner. Ultimately, States are required to determine if the
information provided in a registration application meets the above verification requirements
pursuant to State law. "
So if you provide your driver's license NUMBER or, if you don't have a license, the last four digits of your social security number, then you don't have to include a copy of your driver's license.
The transcript you linked to is already all over the web, but the information appears to be wrong. I don't doubt there's isolated instance of attempted voter suppression, but suggesting that it will be on this scale ends up spreading vile and confusing rumors.
Matt 75p · 858 weeks ago