Thursday, September 25, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/25 - Pre-Debate Edition

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

On the day before what will hopefully be the first debate, Obama increases by projection by 2 EVs, and now leads 286-252, led by movement in Colorado and North Carolina. OpenLeft has Obama exactly at 269, and is concerned about which state will put him over. The most obvious state, NH, is polling dead even this week.

(Friday morning update: CNN updated their map this morning, moving MI to Obama-Lean. This is not reflected in the numbers below).

We have a new tipping point state, VA.

Map changes: Towards Obama: CO: T->OL. Towards McCain: MT: ML->M.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, WV, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftFHQRCPCNNRMEV.
com
Elect. Proj.NBCEVs
Date

9/25.9/24.9/25.9/25.9/19.9/25.9/25.9/22.9/22.
Obama-Strong (O)

248195157164160193168157157
Obama-Lean (OL)

347465646362434576
Tossup (T)

29841531361155614314778
McCain-Lean (ML)

642714167553354967
McCain-Strong (M)

163158149158125174149140160
Obama Total

282269222228223255211202233
McCain Total

227185163174200227184189227
Obama Est.

308302288286283281281276270

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOOOOLOOLOO157
New Jersey
15OOOLOLOLOOOLOL172
Iowa
7OOOLOOLOLOLOLOL179
Washington
11OOOLOLOLOOLOLOL190
Oregon
7OOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLOLTOLOLOL202
Minnesota
10OOLOLTTOTTOL212
Pennsylvania
21OLOLTTOLOLTTOL233
Colorado
9OOLTOLTTOLTT242
Michigan
17OOLTOLTOLTTT259
Wisconsin
10OOLOLTTOLTTT269
Virginia
13OLTTTTTTTT282
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT287
NH
4TTTTTTTTT291
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTT311
Florida
27MLTTTTMLTTML338
Indiana
11MLMLTTMLMLTMLML349
N. Carolina
15MLTTTMLMLMLMLML364
Missouri
11MLMLTMLMLMMLTML375
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMLMLMTMLM380
Montana
3MMMLMMLMMMLML
Louisiana
9MMMMMLMMLMLM
Arkansas
6MMMMMLMMMLM
Alaska
3MMMLMMMMMM
Georgia
15MMMMMLMMMM
N. Dakota
3MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftFHQRCPCNNRMEV.
com
Elect. Proj.NBC....





















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Comments (21)

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Has anyone actually seen NBC's Map? there is something definitely cooky about the damn thing. I relied almost completely on MSNBC for the primary coverage but got some political overdose and threw up and had to sit out for a couple months. I can't believe all the wierd stuff that has happened to their site since then.
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think missouri is going to have to be put in toss put in toss up. a new survey usa poll has mccain ahead by 2, with in margin of error. and a research 2000 poll has him only ahead by 1 pt.
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CNN moved MI to Obama-Lean this morning. Link in the post.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Anyone have a link to CNN's current chart that works? The link in the post doesn't show their map.
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Holy living crap, we could plausibly end up at 269.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago

i think the word is possibly, not plausibly, in reality, there is little chance that obama goes below 273, and i think the odds are better for a 300+ than an unter 275 EV total, but yeah, good to have control of both houses just in case:)
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Matt - THANK YOU for the EV update ;)
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago

Hey! RCP just moved Obama to 301!!!!!
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3 replies · active less than 1 minute ago
Yeah ? Well 538 has him at 325 ... So there ...

Lol ... jk ...
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago

actually mindle, it is big they are both catching a trend, i bet matt will have a composite at or near 300 on the next update. people are finally paying attention, and they are scared, not of terrorists, or at least not of arab terrorists, but of the thugs in the GOP and their buddies, and they see McCain offers NO hope, NO change, NO matter his rhetoric!
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Current composite is 291. NBC, Election Projection and CNN have not updated since last Monday, so they don't yet reflect any movement this week.
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Not really. Their number without Tossups is 301. Their number in our calculations is 291.
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While there's general movement to Obama, the movement in Virginia and North Carolina is remarkable. Based on polling alone, North Carolina has to be considered a toss-up now--it's the projections that account for history that still consider it a McCain lean. Virginia is approaching Obama lean status, although it's not quite there yet.

Think about this: Virginia and North Carolina have more electoral votes when combined than Ohio. They have more than Florida. They have more than New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire combined.

The decision to go for a wide map is paying dividends. It would be depressing right now to be depending on Ohio or Florida. Obama gave himself lots of ways to win, and didn't put all his eggs in one basket.
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You really should change the cnn link above. it links to a july article saying that minnesota and Wisconsin are both double digit wins. It is kind of depressing to see how they have fallen from grace
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
it's been fixed. They have a new page for there map, and all links have been updated.
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For those of ya'll that missed these jumps in the dem. voter registration - here is the link again:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...

Goodin' good ;)
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Here's a bit of BAD news...
Very important!!!
Please read:
http://www.truthout.org/article/rfk-jr-and-mike-p...

.
Reply
1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
I read the post and followed it up a little bit further. I tentatively conclude that it is at least partially sensationalism. There are two main claims in it:

1) If there is not a "perfect match" between government databases a registration will be rejected

2) Color copies of your driver's license have to be included with your absentee ballot

I'll take them one at a time.

#1 is in explicit contradiction with this official document meant to help implement the Help American Vote Act:

http://www.eac.gov/election/docs/statewide_regist...

I'll quote from the relevant section: "States should avoid proffering protocols that automatically reject all
registration applications that do not result in a perfect match with a verification database, as such procedures may be impractical, unrealistic and result in the rejection of a large number of eligible voters. "

It's inaccurate to say that HAVA requires a "perfect match."

As far as #2, here's the requirements from the same document:

"2. Verification of voter registration. Generally, Section 303(a) of HAVA requires that
registration applications include either a valid driver’s license number or, if none, the last four
digits of a social security number. States are prohibited from accepting or processing
registration applications that do not have this information (with the exception of individuals who
do not possess either identifier). Moreover, HAVA requires States to match information
received on voter registration forms against driver's license and social security databases for the
purpose of verifying the accuracy of the information received from all new voter registrants.
Under Section 303(b), such validation provides an exemption to the voter identification
requirement for first-time registrants by mail if the information matches. States must take steps
to ensure that this matching or verification process is accomplished promptly and performed in a
uniform and non-discriminatory manner. Ultimately, States are required to determine if the
information provided in a registration application meets the above verification requirements
pursuant to State law. "

So if you provide your driver's license NUMBER or, if you don't have a license, the last four digits of your social security number, then you don't have to include a copy of your driver's license.

The transcript you linked to is already all over the web, but the information appears to be wrong. I don't doubt there's isolated instance of attempted voter suppression, but suggesting that it will be on this scale ends up spreading vile and confusing rumors.
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new forecast is up.
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