Presidential Forecast - 9/29 - 5 weeks to go

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After the first debate, after the failed bailout, before the VP debate, Obama increases his projection by 8 EVs, and now leads 294-244 with major movement in many swing states. Of interest is the very low number of McCain-Lean states. (On the map only MO and WV qualify). McCain's consolidated his base, moving some marginal red states all the way to Strong. But at the same time, the light red swing states of FL, OH and NC made major movement into the Tossup category.

NH/NV/OH/VA all qualify as tipping point states. We should note that the tipping point state has always been a pure or mostly pure Tossup, which means that a small move towards McCain could still give him a road to victory.

Map changes: Towards Obama: IN, NC: ML->T.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

We have made a small change in the algorithms. Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. This will prevent the isolated movement of a TX or NY to Lean in 1 projection from affecting the overall number. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: ME (Obama), MT, AR, GA, LA, ND (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, PA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	NBC	EVs
Date		9/29.	9/24.	9/29.	9/29.	9/29.	9/28.	9/29.	9/29.	9/29.
Obama-Strong (O)		269	195	175	171	200	160	168	153	157
Obama-Lean (OL)		42	74	75	78	55	80	54	70	55
Tossup (T)		64	84	125	126	83	98	138	141	152
McCain-Lean (ML)		0	27	5	5	26	75	26	22	14
McCain-Strong (M)		163	158	158	158	174	125	152	152	160
Obama Total		311	269	250	249	255	240	222	223	212
McCain Total		163	185	163	163	200	200	178	174	174
Obama Est.		329	302	299	297	291	282	284	284	279
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	68
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	72
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	93
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	103
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	115
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	146
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	150
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	153
Maine	4	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	157
Iowa	7	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	164
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	179
Oregon	7	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	186
Washington	11	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL	197
New Mexico	5	O	O	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	OL	202
Pennsylvania	21	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	T	223
Michigan	17	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	T	240
Minnesota	10	O	OL	T	T	O	T	OL	T	OL	250
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	OL	T	OL	T	OL	T	T	260
Colorado	9	O	OL	T	OL	T	T	T	T	T	269
Nevada	5	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	274
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	278
Ohio	20	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	298
Virginia	13	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	311
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	338
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	T	T	353
Indiana	11	T	ML	T	T	ML	ML	T	ML	T	364
Missouri	11	T	ML	T	T	M	ML	T	T	ML	375
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M
Montana	3	M	M	M	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
Arkansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	ML	M
Georgia	15	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M
N. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alaska	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Arizona	10	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	NBC	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.