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After the first debate, after the failed bailout, before the VP debate, Obama increases his projection by 8 EVs, and now leads 294-244 with major movement in many swing states. Of interest is the very low number of McCain-Lean states.
(On the map only MO and WV qualify). McCain's consolidated his base, moving some marginal red states all the way to Strong. But at the same time, the light red swing states of FL, OH and NC made major movement into the Tossup category.
NH/NV/OH/VA all qualify as tipping point states. We should note that the tipping point state has always been a pure or mostly pure Tossup, which means that a small move towards McCain could still give him a road to victory.
Map changes: Towards Obama: IN, NC: ML->T.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
We have made a small change in the algorithms. Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. This will prevent the isolated movement of a TX or NY to Lean in 1 projection from affecting the overall number. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: ME (Obama), MT, AR, GA, LA, ND (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, PA, WI.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538 .com | Open Left | EV. com | RCP | RM | CNN | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | NBC | EVs |
| Date | 9/29. | 9/24. | 9/29. | 9/29. | 9/29. | 9/28. | 9/29. | 9/29. | 9/29. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 269 | 195 | 175 | 171 | 200 | 160 | 168 | 153 | 157 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 42 | 74 | 75 | 78 | 55 | 80 | 54 | 70 | 55 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 64 | 84 | 125 | 126 | 83 | 98 | 138 | 141 | 152 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 0 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 75 | 26 | 22 | 14 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 163 | 158 | 158 | 158 | 174 | 125 | 152 | 152 | 160 | ||
| Obama Total | 311 | 269 | 250 | 249 | 255 | 240 | 222 | 223 | 212 | ||
| McCain Total | 163 | 185 | 163 | 163 | 200 | 200 | 178 | 174 | 174 | ||
| Obama Est. | 329 | 302 | 299 | 297 | 291 | 282 | 284 | 284 | 279 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 68 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 72 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 93 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 103 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 115 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 146 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 150 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 153 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | 157 |
| Iowa | 7 | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | 164 |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | 179 |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | 186 |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | O | OL | OL | 197 |
| New Mexico | 5 | O | O | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | OL | 202 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | T | 223 |
| Michigan | 17 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | 240 |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | OL | T | T | O | T | OL | T | OL | 250 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | T | 260 |
| Colorado | 9 | O | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | 269 |
| Nevada | 5 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 274 |
| NH | 4 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 278 |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 298 |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 338 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | T | 353 |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | T | T | ML | ML | T | ML | T | 364 |
| Missouri | 11 | T | ML | T | T | M | ML | T | T | ML | 375 |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Montana | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | ML | M | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| 538 .com | Open Left | EV. com | RCP | RM | CNN | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | NBC | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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