Monday, September 29, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/29 - 5 weeks to go

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After the first debate, after the failed bailout, before the VP debate, Obama increases his projection by 8 EVs, and now leads 294-244 with major movement in many swing states. Of interest is the very low number of McCain-Lean states. (On the map only MO and WV qualify). McCain's consolidated his base, moving some marginal red states all the way to Strong. But at the same time, the light red swing states of FL, OH and NC made major movement into the Tossup category.

NH/NV/OH/VA all qualify as tipping point states. We should note that the tipping point state has always been a pure or mostly pure Tossup, which means that a small move towards McCain could still give him a road to victory.

Map changes: Towards Obama: IN, NC: ML->T.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

We have made a small change in the algorithms. Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. This will prevent the isolated movement of a TX or NY to Lean in 1 projection from affecting the overall number. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: ME (Obama), MT, AR, GA, LA, ND (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, PA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBCEVs
Date

9/29.9/24.9/29.9/29.9/29.9/28.9/29.9/29.9/29.
Obama-Strong (O)

269195175171200160168153157
Obama-Lean (OL)

427475785580547055
Tossup (T)

64841251268398138141152
McCain-Lean (ML)

027552675262214
McCain-Strong (M)

163158158158174125152152160
Obama Total

311269250249255240222223212
McCain Total

163185163163200200178174174
Obama Est.

329302299297291282284284279

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOOLOOOLOOLO157
Iowa
7OOOLOOOLOLOLOL164
New Jersey
15OOOOLOOLOLOLOL179
Oregon
7OOLOOOLOOLOLOL186
Washington
11OOOLOLOOLOOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLTOLOLOLOL202
Pennsylvania
21OOLOLOLOLOLTOLT223
Michigan
17OOLOLOLOLOLTTT240
Minnesota
10OOLTTOTOLTOL250
Wisconsin
10OOLOLTOLTOLTT260
Colorado
9OOLTOLTTTTT269
Nevada
5OLTTTTTTTT274
NH
4OLTTTTTTTT278
Ohio
20OLTTTTTTTT298
Virginia
13OLTTTTTTTT311
Florida
27TTTTTTTTT338
N. Carolina
15TTTTMLMLMLTT353
Indiana
11TMLTTMLMLTMLT364
Missouri
11TMLTTMMLTTML375
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMLMMLMLMLM
Montana
3MMMMMMLMLMML
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMMLM
Georgia
15MMMMMMLMMM
Louisiana
9MMMMMMLMMM
N. Dakota
3MMMMMMMLMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBC....






















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.