Saturday, September 20, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/20 - Cross-currents

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Obama makes a nice comeback, 278-260, an increase of 8 EVs from our last forecast. But the gain is mostly from one source, 538.com, which increased from 258 to 306.5 EVs, moving from our worst projection to our best. 538 is basically following the national polls, where Obama has moved from a 2 pt deficit to a 3 pt lead, on average, in the last few days. But Open Left, who just 3 days ago was basically in sync with 538, now differs by almost 40 EVs. Why?

Obama's national poll surge has not--repeat, not--resulted in a clear electoral college lead. There has been enough state polling over the past few days that it would have been picked up by now. - Open Left
Except that we've seen consistently that state polls seem to lag 1-2 weeks behind the national polls. I would expect the state polls to start being more favorable to Obama next week, assuming his national lead holds.

Which leads me to the following conclusion: I think the projections which include some "special sauce", especially NBC and CNN, are beginning to show their value by not bouncing all over the place. CNN especially has shown the most consistency, being at 273 in June, moving slowly up to 291 after the Democratic convention, and has since moved back down to 283. Sure, they were maddening when they were showing NM as McCain-Lean when the polls were clearly showing otherwise. But there is something to be said that they have had 7 states always as Tossups throughout: CO, FL, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: WI: OL-> T. Towards Obama: FL: ML->T; MI, NM: T->OL; NC: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT, NM, NC, OH, PA, WV, WI - 12 states, the highest number since we've been tracking this.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
FHQCNNEV.
com
RMNBCOpen LeftRCPElect. Proj.EVs
Date

9/20.9/19.9/19.9/20.9/19.9/15.9/19.9/20.9/15.
Obama-Strong (O)

260157160153193172164157154
Obama-Lean (OL)

336563626661554543
Tossup (T)

45156115139327885120141
McCain-Lean (ML)

301175385867885926
McCain-Strong (M)

170149125146189160146157174
Obama Total

293222223215259233219202197
McCain Total

200160200184247227234216200
Obama Est.

307289283280273273268265264

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO69
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO90
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO100
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO112
New York
31OOOOOOOOO143
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO147
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO150
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOOL153
Maine
4OOOLTOOOOO157
New Jersey
15OOLOLOLOOOLOLOL172
Iowa
7OOLOLOLOLOLOOLOL179
Oregon
7OOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL186
Washington
11OOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOLOLOLTOLOLOLT202
Minnesota
10OOLTTOOLTTT212
Michigan
17OTTOLOLTOLTT229
Pennsylvania
21OTOLTOLOLTTT250
Wisconsin
10OOLTTOLTTTT260
NH
4OLTTTOLTTTT264
Colorado
9OLTTTTTTTT273
Ohio
20OLTTTMLTTTT293
Nevada
5TTTTTTMLTT298
Virginia
13TTTTTTMLTT311
Florida
27TTTTMLMLMLMLT338
Indiana
11MLTMLTMLMLTTM349
Missouri
11MLTMLMLMMLMLMLML360
Montana
3MLTMLMLMMLMLMLM363
N. Carolina
15MTMLMLMMLMLMLM378
W. Virginia
5MLMLMLTMMMLMML
Louisiana
9MMMLMLMMMLMM
N. Dakota
3MMLMMMMMMLM
Alaska
3MMLMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMML
Arkansas
6MMMLMMMMMM
Georgia
15MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
FHQCNNEV.
com
RMNBCOpen LeftRCPElect. Proj.....


















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.