Presidential Forecast - 9/20 - Cross-currents

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Obama makes a nice comeback, 278-260, an increase of 8 EVs from our last forecast. But the gain is mostly from one source, 538.com, which increased from 258 to 306.5 EVs, moving from our worst projection to our best. 538 is basically following the national polls, where Obama has moved from a 2 pt deficit to a 3 pt lead, on average, in the last few days. But Open Left, who just 3 days ago was basically in sync with 538, now differs by almost 40 EVs. Why?

Obama's national poll surge has not--repeat, not--resulted in a clear electoral college lead. There has been enough state polling over the past few days that it would have been picked up by now. - Open Left

Except that we've seen consistently that state polls seem to lag 1-2 weeks behind the national polls. I would expect the state polls to start being more favorable to Obama next week, assuming his national lead holds.

Which leads me to the following conclusion: I think the projections which include some "special sauce", especially NBC and CNN, are beginning to show their value by not bouncing all over the place. CNN especially has shown the most consistency, being at 273 in June, moving slowly up to 291 after the Democratic convention, and has since moved back down to 283. Sure, they were maddening when they were showing NM as McCain-Lean when the polls were clearly showing otherwise. But there is something to be said that they have had 7 states always as Tossups throughout: CO, FL, MI, NV, NH, OH, VA.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: WI: OL-> T. Towards Obama: FL: ML->T; MI, NM: T->OL; NC: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT, NM, NC, OH, PA, WV, WI - 12 states, the highest number since we've been tracking this.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	538 .com	FHQ	CNN	EV. com	RM	NBC	Open Left	RCP	Elect. Proj.	EVs
Date		9/20.	9/19.	9/19.	9/20.	9/19.	9/15.	9/19.	9/20.	9/15.
Obama-Strong (O)		260	157	160	153	193	172	164	157	154
Obama-Lean (OL)		33	65	63	62	66	61	55	45	43
Tossup (T)		45	156	115	139	32	78	85	120	141
McCain-Lean (ML)		30	11	75	38	58	67	88	59	26
McCain-Strong (M)		170	149	125	146	189	160	146	157	174
Obama Total		293	222	223	215	259	233	219	202	197
McCain Total		200	160	200	184	247	227	234	216	200
Obama Est.		307	289	283	280	273	273	268	265	264
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	69
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	90
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	100
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	112
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	143
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	147
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	150
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	153
Maine	4	O	O	OL	T	O	O	O	O	O	157
New Jersey	15	O	OL	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL	OL	172
Iowa	7	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	179
Oregon	7	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	186
Washington	11	O	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	197
New Mexico	5	O	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	T	202
Minnesota	10	O	OL	T	T	O	OL	T	T	T	212
Michigan	17	O	T	T	OL	OL	T	OL	T	T	229
Pennsylvania	21	O	T	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T	T	250
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	T	T	OL	T	T	T	T	260
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	OL	T	T	T	T	264
Colorado	9	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	273
Ohio	20	OL	T	T	T	ML	T	T	T	T	293
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	T	298
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	T	311
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	T	338
Indiana	11	ML	T	ML	T	ML	ML	T	T	M	349
Missouri	11	ML	T	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	ML	360
Montana	3	ML	T	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M	363
N. Carolina	15	M	T	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M	378
W. Virginia	5	ML	ML	ML	T	M	M	ML	M	ML
Louisiana	9	M	M	ML	ML	M	M	ML	M	M
N. Dakota	3	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Alaska	3	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Arizona	10	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
Arkansas	6	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
Georgia	15	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		538 .com	FHQ	CNN	EV. com	RM	NBC	Open Left	RCP	Elect. Proj.	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.