Saturday, September 27, 2008

Senate Forecast - September 27

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Senate Forecast: 56.5, up 0.1 from the previous forecast. Movement in NC and OR bring 58-59 seats more easily within Democratic grasp, even as a longshot like GA moves out of reach.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), OK (Inhofe), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection. The right column counts the "road to 60".

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State
CurrentCQEV
.com
538
.com
CookSSPCrystal BallOpen LeftRoth....
Date

9/26.9/26.9/20.9/25.9/17.7/29.9/19.9/14.
Dem-Strong

1313151213121113
Dem-Lean

43234562
Tossup

24162124
Rep-Lean

32312422
Rep-Strong

1313141314131414
Dem '08 Projection

17.817.817.717.617.617.317.217.0
Dem '10/'12 Seats

3939393939393939
Dem Senate Projection

56.856.856.756.656.656.356.256.0
Dem-Gain

5.85.85.75.65.65.35.25.0

VA (Open)
RDDDDDDDD52
NJ (Lautenberg)
DDDLDDDDDLD
NM (Open)
RDDDDLDDLDLD53
LA (Landrieu)
DDLDDDLDLDLDLT
AK (Stevens)
RDLDLDLDLDLDLDLDL54
NH (Sununu)
RDLTDTDLDLDLDL55
CO (Open)
RDLDLDLTDLDLDLT56
NC (Dole)
RTTRLTTRLRLT57
OR (Smith)
RRLTRLTTRLTT58
MN (Coleman)
RRLTTTRLRLTRL59
MS (Wicker)
RTRLRLTRLTRLRL60
ME (Collins)
RRLRRRLRRLRR61
KY (McConnell)
RRRLRRRRRR62
GA (Chambliss)
RRRRRRRRR63











































Click for Notes and Graph

Here are the seats that span 3 categories: LA, NH

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.