Democratic Convention Watch: North Carolina on my mind

Sunday, September 21, 2008

North Carolina on my mind

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North Carolina
Public Policy Polling (D)
9/17-19/08; 1,060 LV, 3%

President (9/9 in parens)
Obama 46 (44), McCain 46 (48), Barr 5 (4)

Senate:
Hagan 46 (43), Dole 41 (42), Cole 6 (6)

North Carolina is massive icing on the cake for Obama. In the latest Prez Forecast NC would get him to 378 EVs.

But a Senate win here, and against Liddy Dole, would be sweet.

Comments (4)

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Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago

378 assumes all the states between the blue ones and NC would also fall into place...

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Chad_Nielson 57p · 860 weeks ago

I think it is fair to assume that if Obama's popularity grows enough to win a deeply red state (at least by this particular table it is deeply red anyway) then he will probably win most if not all of the states in between.

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SLCScott 74p · 860 weeks ago

Not this time. It's not quite a straight red/blue battle. Virginia, for example, seemed remarkably immune to the Palin bounce that swept through many other states.

It's very easy for me to imagine Obama winning N. Carolina without winning Montana, Missouri, Indiana, or Florida. That brings the win down to 326. It's possible to envision a North Carolina win without Nevada or Ohio, bringing it down to 301. But that's about as far as my brain stretches--there's no world in which Obama wins North Carolina without winning Virginia, Iowa, and the Gore states. So North Carolina won't decide the election, but it would sure be yummy frosting.

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