Democratic Convention Watch: The week ahead

Sunday, September 21, 2008

The week ahead

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Sorry for the light posting this weekend. Here are some things to look for this week as we head into the debate on Friday:

Have the tracking polls stabilized at a 3-4 point Obama lead?
Will the non-tracking national polls show a similar race?
When will the state polls follow the national polls? For this to happen, PA, WI, MN should all be at 5 pts or more for Obama. All 3 states were solidly Obama-Lean or better before the conventions, but they're not right now.
Both Obama and McCain wanted the first debate to be about foreign policy. Absent any gaffes or external events, will this debate be the last hurrah for foreign policy in this election, with the last few weeks focused on the economy? Which, of course, is good for Obama.
Watch the expectations game this week for the VP debate. Here's what I think: The structured format set up for the VP debate will really help Palin, and with Biden gaffe-prone and having to watch every word he says for fear of being called sexist, I think Palin has a definite advantage heading into the Oct 2 event. (Oh, and McCain's an excellent debater also - and the first debate is on McCain's foreign policy turf - as long as Obama holds his own it's a big victory for him).

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Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago

Too bad the VP debate got that structured, a mistake on our part.

I am no longer worried about sexism charges. AnimalKiller has been waving around guns, etc., so what's she going to do and have any credibility, get out her hanky?

As long as Biden stays away from the tempting target of her lousy family life, he should be okay.

Persnally, I have a fondness for people who speak their minds.

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SLCScott 74p · 860 weeks ago

I agree with Karen Anne about the VP debate.

As for the first Presidential debate, I think the McCain campaign has succeeded in putting the expectations on their candidate, which is a good thing for us! McCain has been positioning himself as a dynamic maverick, an agent of "real change." Obama now seems steady and almost boring. That shows how a month can be an eternity in politics!

As long as Obama doesn't sigh or look at his watch, that means he should be fine. McCain, on the other hand, has put himself in a difficult spot. Even before 2004, when he sometimes deserved the label maverick, he never was a "throw the bums out" type populist maverick, and I don't think he can sustain that in a debate without appearing either mean or like he's flailing around looking for ideas.

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tmess2 70p · 859 weeks ago

The key for Obama in the debates is to do a little better at sound bites. If he can get one or two good sound bites in, those will be what makes the news in the days after the debates. Even better if they can be things that get under McCain's skin without being blatant about it.

Obama has one built in advantage going into these debates which is that they are, for the most parts, tests of the new guy. McCain really can't win the election based on his performance in these debates, he can only lose the eletion. Obama can either win or lose the election based on his performance.

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Karen Anne · 859 weeks ago

Let's hope his debate training partners are working on soundbites. That's what seems to work. Time for the fireside chats once he is elected.

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SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago

Obama has gotten better at sound bites as time goes on. He's also gotten better at the related skill of the knee-jerk answer. (When confronted with a complicated hypothetical scenario about American being attacked, the proper first response is "I will do whatever it takes to defend the American people." THEN think about the question that was actually asked.)

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