Sunday, September 21, 2008

The week ahead

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

Sorry for the light posting this weekend. Here are some things to look for this week as we head into the debate on Friday:

  • Have the tracking polls stabilized at a 3-4 point Obama lead?
  • Will the non-tracking national polls show a similar race?
  • When will the state polls follow the national polls? For this to happen, PA, WI, MN should all be at 5 pts or more for Obama. All 3 states were solidly Obama-Lean or better before the conventions, but they're not right now.
  • Both Obama and McCain wanted the first debate to be about foreign policy. Absent any gaffes or external events, will this debate be the last hurrah for foreign policy in this election, with the last few weeks focused on the economy? Which, of course, is good for Obama.
  • Watch the expectations game this week for the VP debate. Here's what I think: The structured format set up for the VP debate will really help Palin, and with Biden gaffe-prone and having to watch every word he says for fear of being called sexist, I think Palin has a definite advantage heading into the Oct 2 event. (Oh, and McCain's an excellent debater also - and the first debate is on McCain's foreign policy turf - as long as Obama holds his own it's a big victory for him).