Tuesday, September 30, 2008

House Forecast - 9/30 - Almost at double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.8 (+9.8) [was 245.1 (+9.1)]. Fifteen districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with four districts moving the other way. Note that in 2006, Cook and CQ moved 10 and 13 seats, respectively, between 10/1 and election day, (and underestimated the final numbers by 6 seats), so there could still be plenty of movement to come.

One Republican seat, KY-2, was added to the chart, with SSP and Rothenberg both moving it to Rep-Lean. And one Dem seat, GA-12, was moved off the list, as it is now unanimous Dem-Strong.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentSSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....
Date

9/299/259/249/309/29
Dem

575101
Dem-Lean

201318623
Tossup

1827193115
Rep-Lean

1914181122
Rep

678107
Dem-Prediction

33.833.732.532.531.3
Dem (not shown)

213213213213213
House Projection

246.8246.7245.5245.5244.3
Dem-Gain

10.810.79.59.58.3

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDLDDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
AK AL (Young)
RTTDLDDL
IL 11 (Open)
RTDLDLTDL
NJ 3 (Open)
RDLTTTT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTTTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTTRL
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RTTRLTRL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RRLTRLTT
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RRLTRLTRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLTRTRL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRLTRL
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RRLTRLRLRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
PA 3 (English)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 9 (Open)
RRLRLRLRRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRLRRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRLRLRLR
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRRLR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRLRR
MD 1 (Open)
RRLRLRLRR
NV 2 (Heller)
RRRLRLRRL
CA 4 (Open)
RRLRRRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRLRRL
KY 2 (Open)
RRLRRRLR
NE 2 (Terry)
RRRLRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DDLTTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DDLTTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTTTDL
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLDLTTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DDLTDLTDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DDLTDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLTDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLTDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DDLTDLDDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDLDDLDDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDLDDDLDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


SSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....

































































































Click for Notes and Graph


The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Comments (6)

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Matt...this has absolutely nothing to do with this posting. Just wanted to let Karen Anne know that thanks to her suggestion and after much prodding on my part ... my 84 year old Mom has finally agreed to casting an absentee ballot, as long as I do all the ground work so to speak. So thanks to Karen Anne(if you read this) for giving me the motivation to push the issue and count one more vote for Obama in N.C.!
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"Note that in 2006, Cook and CQ moved 10 and 13 seats, respectively, between 10/1 and election day, (and underestimated the final numbers by 6 seats)." I like reading references about the "accuracy" of forecasts from prior elections. It helps to provide perspective. Is there a way to provide additional info like that when you post your projections in the future? For example, what would the projections have looked like in 2006 using your methodology both today and on election day? (Did you have more forecasts than Cook and CQ?) Thanks for the great site. Charles.
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 858 weeks ago

i notice that wikipedia shows 235 dems 199 gop and 1 vacant in the current house, yet you show the adds based on the dems having 236. where is the vacant seat? and why do you not count that first seat as an add?
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1 reply · active 858 weeks ago
The open seat is OH-11. I don't include it because its a guaranteed Dem win. It was Dem before, and it will be Dem again on 11/18 after the Special Election. So I just assume it's Dem now.
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Mike in Maryland's avatar

Mike in Maryland · 858 weeks ago

There also have been three special elections in the past few months that turned R seats into D seats - Bill Foster in IL-14 after Hastert resigned; Don Cazayoux in LA-6 after Baker resigned; and Travis Childers in MS-1 after Wicker was named Senator after Trott resigned.

Mike
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 858 weeks ago

Thanks!
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