House Forecast - 9/30 - Almost at double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.8 (+9.8) [was 245.1 (+9.1)]. Fifteen districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with four districts moving the other way. Note that in 2006, Cook and CQ moved 10 and 13 seats, respectively, between 10/1 and election day, (and underestimated the final numbers by 6 seats), so there could still be plenty of movement to come.

One Republican seat, KY-2, was added to the chart, with SSP and Rothenberg both moving it to Rep-Lean. And one Dem seat, GA-12, was moved off the list, as it is now unanimous Dem-Strong.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State	Current	SSP	Cook	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....
Date		9/29	9/25	9/24	9/30	9/29
Dem		5	7	5	10	1
Dem-Lean		20	13	18	6	23
Tossup		18	27	19	31	15
Rep-Lean		19	14	18	11	22
Rep		6	7	8	10	7
Dem-Prediction		33.8	33.7	32.5	32.5	31.3
Dem (not shown)		213	213	213	213	213
House Projection		246.8	246.7	245.5	245.5	244.3
Dem-Gain		10.8	10.7	9.5	9.5	8.3
NY 13 (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D
NY 25 (Open)	R	D	D	DL	D	DL
VA 11 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 1 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
AK AL (Young)	R	T	T	DL	D	DL
IL 11 (Open)	R	T	DL	DL	T	DL
NJ 3 (Open)	R	DL	T	T	T	T
CT 4 (Shays)	R	T	T	T	T	T
MN 3 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NJ 7 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NM 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NV 3 (Porter)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 15 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 16 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
WA 8 (Reichert)	R	T	T	T	T	T
CO 4 (Musgrave)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
LA 4 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
MI 7 (Wahlberg)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
AL 2 (Open)	R	T	T	T	RL	RL
FL 24 (Feeney)	R	T	T	RL	T	RL
NC 8 (Hayes)	R	RL	T	RL	T	T
NY 29 (Kuhl)	R	RL	T	RL	T	RL
FL 8 (Keller)	R	RL	T	R	T	RL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
NM 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
NY 26 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
OH 1 (Chabot)	R	RL	T	RL	RL	RL
IL 10 (Kirk)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MO 6 (Graves)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
PA 3 (English)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MO 9 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	RL
OH 2 (Schmidt)	R	RL	R	RL	RL	RL
VA 2 (Drake)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	R
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	R
ID 1 (Sali)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
MD 1 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
NV 2 (Heller)	R	R	RL	RL	R	RL
CA 4 (Open)	R	RL	R	R	R	RL
FL 13 (Buchanan)	R	R	R	RL	R	RL
KY 2 (Open)	R	RL	R	R	RL	R
NE 2 (Terry)	R	R	RL	R	R	R
WV 2 (Moore Capito)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
WY AL (Open)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
TX 22 (Lampson)	D	T	T	T	RL	T
LA 6 (Cazayoux)	D	T	T	T	T	T
AL 5 (Open)	D	DL	T	T	T	T
KS 2 (Boyda)	D	DL	T	T	T	T
PA 11 (Kanjorski)	D	T	T	T	T	DL
FL 16 (Mahoney)	D	DL	DL	T	T	T
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)	D	DL	T	DL	T	DL
PA 10 (Carney)	D	DL	T	DL	T	DL
CA 11 (McNerney)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
GA 8 (Marshall)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
WI 8 (Kagen)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
MS 1 (Childers)	D	DL	T	DL	D	DL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 8 (Giffords)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
PA 4 (Altmire)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IL 14 (Foster)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
IN 9 (Hill)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)	D	DL	D	DL	D	DL
OR 5 (Open)	D	DL	D	D	DL	DL
CT 5 (Murphy)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
MN 1 (Walz)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
		SSP	Cook	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....

Click for Notes and Graph


The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.