Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Minnesota and Colorado - In state convention bounce?

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Minnesota is clearly running redder right now than expected, with Obama averaging a 2.5 point lead over the last 6 polls.

Colorado is clearly running bluer right now than expected, with Obama averaging a 7 point lead over the last three polls.

Could this be a longer lasting in-state convention bounce for each party?

And if so, will it last? We certainly know that the Obama campaign used the Invesco speech as an organizing tool, which should hopefully bring some long-lasting effects. It's worth keeping an eye on these two states to see if either reverts to their historical norm.

Posted by Matt at 8:16 AM

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SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago

Maybe it's a convention effect, but Minnesota is tricky to poll. Why? Because you can register the same day you vote. So when pollsters ask "are you registered to vote?" as a screen, they cut out some people who are fully intending to vote, and more of those are probably Obama voters than not. A lot of pollsters tweak their screens as we get closer to the date, and that may create the illusion of movement in a state like Minnesota.

I think the race has tightened a little there, but it's also tightened a little in WIsconsin and Pennsylvania, and slid from a toss-up a touch toward McCain in Ohio. (Very recently this has stabilized in all these states.) I don't think Minnesota is any different from that swath of states.

The great news for Obama is that Michigan has been heading strongly in Obama's direction. That state looked a little dicey for a long time, but not any more. Good job, Michiganders!
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