Friday, September 19, 2008

Overtime?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

In this already amazing political year, the fates are potentially aligning for the most amazing event of all: A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. 538 has the details:

As you may have noticed from our scenario chart, the probability of a tie has increased dramatically in recent days and now stands at 3.2 percent.
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However, there is one specific scenario that is driving this outcome. That is the scenario wherein Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire. Of the 320 times that our simulation ended in a tie, this particular scenario was responsible 294 times. Indeed, we presently have Obama winning precisely the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, so all that would be needed to make a tie occur is to flip New Hampshire back to McCain, and entirely reasonable possibility.
To remind everyone what happens, from the 12th amendment to the Constitution:
the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;
So, how would that go? Currently, Dems lead in 26 states, 3 are tied, and the GOP leads in 21 states.

So can we assume Obama will then win? Well, first, remember that it's the incoming House that picks the President. With Democrats looking to increase their majority in the House, this should only move in Obama's favor. (But a true state-by-state analysis is needed. If anyone knows of one, leave it in the comments).

But in a tied EV election, and if McCain has a clear victory in the popular vote, there will be great pressure on some Democratic congressmen in heavy GOP states to switch their votes. Will any succumb?

Let's see.... looking at national or state popular vote totals that mean nothing legally. Politicians with special voting powers being asked to vote the way their state voted, not the way they would want to vote. Sound familiar to anyone?

Update: Good analysis of the House in the comments. But the most interesting thing is about the VP, who is picked by the Senate. That's a slam dunk for Biden. So maybe we'll end up with McCain-Biden? (Or, according to Palin, that should be Biden-McCain!).

Comments (19)

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If the election is tied 269-269 and the majority of states are Democratic-Party-controlled, then Obama will win. Period. The popular vote won't matter, and the will of the voters in individual states won't matter. No state delegation would -- or should -- dare to go against the candidate of their party. If they did, they would be shunned from all congressional power. It won't happen.

269-269 means an Obama victory, albeit one that will cause much whining and complaining from the MSM if McCain wins the popular vote.
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lol yea and we can give one right back to the republicans for 2000 fiasco in florida, they had the republican led state tip the results, memories!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! bush anyone???
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I don't buy this theory! Obama will do better than that!!
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Mike in Maryland's avatar

Mike in Maryland · 860 weeks ago

Mississippi currently has a 3-1 Dem-Rep delegation. So the current breakdown is a 27-21-2 split.

Here's the main points I posted at 538.com early yesterday:

The most likely changes in delegations that could affect the current 27-21-2 balance:

- If Young (R) in Alaska loses to Berkowitz, Alaska goes to the D column. Currently considered a toss-up.

- Kirkpatrick is favored in Arizona CD-1 - if she wins, Arizona goes to the D column.

- No clear favorite in New Mexico CD-1 - If Heinrich wins, NM goes to the D column, if White wins, NM stays in the R column.

- No clear favorite in Kansas CD-2 - If Boyda wins, KS stays in the tie column, if Jenkins wins, KS goes to the R column.

Other races that are considered close enough to pay attention to should not change any state's current ratio of Ds vs Rs.

That means Arizona is a likely add to the D column

Alaska is a toss-up on change.

If the R wins in New Mexico, the state stays R, if the D wins, the state delegation changes to D.

If the R wins in Kansas, the state goes R, if the D wins in KS, the state delegation stays tied.

The currently predicted House delegations (by state) next January look a lot better for Obama than for McCain.

Mike
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A short hand analysis (think I have seen larger on several of the other sites like Green Papers, 538, and electoral vote) is that there are two areas to look.

First, the states with small delegations (especially those close to even or even) could easily flip. For example, currently both Nevada and New Mexico are 2-1 Republican. In both states, there is a seat that could possibly turn Democrat, that would flip those states. You could add Alaska to that list. In addition, you have tied states like Arizona where either party flipping a seat would flip the state.

Second, you have the single seat states. In a multi-seat state, most voters will not know who won the district and the sheer number of representatives will make it harder to pressure enough to change the state result. In a single seat state, it is pretty clear who the voters of the district supported with the increased pressure that would come from clearly bucking the voters (North Dakota and South Dakota anyone).
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The more interesting fact is that, while the House chooses by State the President, the Senate with each Senator getting one vote chooses the VP. I do not think Palin would have a prayer of a chance in the Senate regardless of the popular vote -- either nationally or in the state.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
So we might get a McCain-Biden administration? (or as Palin might say, a Biden-McCain administration?)
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In theory, it still takes the leading ticket not getting to 270 for either President or Vice-President.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago

If the Supreme(not) Court could give the election to Bush, the House can give the election to Obama. As much as I want Obama to have a nice tidy landslide, there is a certain appealing poetic justice in this scenario.
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I would take a closer look at the electors who could flip their votes long before anyone in Congress can.
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago

I am still betting a 300 plus EV win and a 4 point pop margin. i dont think it will be close, look at ALL the trends! I know the DCW composite is still showing it very close, but i bet the next update will show us back at 280 or better.
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Eric Riback's avatar

Eric Riback · 860 weeks ago

Any chance that Maine or Kansas, who apportion their EVs will split? Any chance that there would be an unfaithful elector (legally they can vote for whomever they want)? By the way, the Senate votes for VP in this case.
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5 replies · active less than 1 minute ago
It's Maine or Nebraska. I haven't seen any polling data on NE-02 in a long time.

I think the faithless elector is more likely. Faithless elector could also create McCain/Biden or Obama/Palin; note that the election goes to the House and Senate _separately_ and only if there is no majority for the respective ballots. That is to say, if neither candidate for President receives 270, the election goes to the House, and if neither candidate for VP receives 270, that election goes to the Senate. I doubt you'd see faithlessness at 270-268 like there was with DC in 2000, but it could happen, and 269-268 still goes to the House. (See the Election of 1824: Adams 86, Jackson 99; Adams wins.)
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If you did have a faithless elector at 269-269 (assuming that they aren't flipping to the other ticket and instead vote for a protest candidate like Ron Paul or Mitt Romney), the House gets to pick between the top three Presidential candidates so the protest candidate would get added to the mix.
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NE-02 is definitely up for grabs. Obama has at least one field office there, as well as fifteen staffers on the ground...
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I would just love to see a poll there. It's hard to think he'll pick that EV up if we have a tie overall, and the national vote is close, but it would be great if he did.
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I haven't seen a poll by district in either Maine or Nebraska, but one of the sites in the projection (think Open Left) does compare the Congressional Districts by their PVI difference from the state as a whole. At the present time, the margin in Nebraska and Maine are both wide enough to suggest that there will be a sweep. However, as all of us have discussed for the past two months, the field operation does not necessarily show in the poll numbers.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/like-kissi...

Has number crunching on a tie scenario, including, hello,ladies, welcome President Pelosi, which I would certainly take.

There's a link there to a comments blog where someone figured out their take on the chances of vote switching, also.
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I think faith in some of these conservative democrats is unfounded. I have never felt sold out by the dems in congress as I did when the house with a huge majority of dems voted for offshore drilling. I hate to say it but the dems in congress as a whole are spineless and have shown time and time again that they WILL CAVE under pressure to vote for just about anything. Lets just hope this 269-269 thing does not happen.
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