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In this already amazing political year, the fates are potentially aligning for the most amazing event of all: A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. 538 has the details:
As you may have noticed from our scenario chart, the probability of a tie has increased dramatically in recent days and now stands at 3.2 percent.To remind everyone what happens, from the 12th amendment to the Constitution:
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However, there is one specific scenario that is driving this outcome. That is the scenario wherein Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire. Of the 320 times that our simulation ended in a tie, this particular scenario was responsible 294 times. Indeed, we presently have Obama winning precisely the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, so all that would be needed to make a tie occur is to flip New Hampshire back to McCain, and entirely reasonable possibility.
the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;So, how would that go? Currently, Dems lead in 26 states, 3 are tied, and the GOP leads in 21 states.
So can we assume Obama will then win? Well, first, remember that it's the incoming House that picks the President. With Democrats looking to increase their majority in the House, this should only move in Obama's favor. (But a true state-by-state analysis is needed. If anyone knows of one, leave it in the comments).
But in a tied EV election, and if McCain has a clear victory in the popular vote, there will be great pressure on some Democratic congressmen in heavy GOP states to switch their votes. Will any succumb?
Let's see.... looking at national or state popular vote totals that mean nothing legally. Politicians with special voting powers being asked to vote the way their state voted, not the way they would want to vote. Sound familiar to anyone?
Update: Good analysis of the House in the comments. But the most interesting thing is about the VP, who is picked by the Senate. That's a slam dunk for Biden. So maybe we'll end up with McCain-Biden? (Or, according to Palin, that should be Biden-McCain!).
UUbuntu 33p · 860 weeks ago
269-269 means an Obama victory, albeit one that will cause much whining and complaining from the MSM if McCain wins the popular vote.
davidfromsd 6p · 860 weeks ago
Susie · 860 weeks ago
Mike in Maryland · 860 weeks ago
Here's the main points I posted at 538.com early yesterday:
The most likely changes in delegations that could affect the current 27-21-2 balance:
- If Young (R) in Alaska loses to Berkowitz, Alaska goes to the D column. Currently considered a toss-up.
- Kirkpatrick is favored in Arizona CD-1 - if she wins, Arizona goes to the D column.
- No clear favorite in New Mexico CD-1 - If Heinrich wins, NM goes to the D column, if White wins, NM stays in the R column.
- No clear favorite in Kansas CD-2 - If Boyda wins, KS stays in the tie column, if Jenkins wins, KS goes to the R column.
Other races that are considered close enough to pay attention to should not change any state's current ratio of Ds vs Rs.
That means Arizona is a likely add to the D column
Alaska is a toss-up on change.
If the R wins in New Mexico, the state stays R, if the D wins, the state delegation changes to D.
If the R wins in Kansas, the state goes R, if the D wins in KS, the state delegation stays tied.
The currently predicted House delegations (by state) next January look a lot better for Obama than for McCain.
Mike
tmess2 70p · 860 weeks ago
First, the states with small delegations (especially those close to even or even) could easily flip. For example, currently both Nevada and New Mexico are 2-1 Republican. In both states, there is a seat that could possibly turn Democrat, that would flip those states. You could add Alaska to that list. In addition, you have tied states like Arizona where either party flipping a seat would flip the state.
Second, you have the single seat states. In a multi-seat state, most voters will not know who won the district and the sheer number of representatives will make it harder to pressure enough to change the state result. In a single seat state, it is pretty clear who the voters of the district supported with the increased pressure that would come from clearly bucking the voters (North Dakota and South Dakota anyone).
tmess2 70p · 860 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 860 weeks ago
tmess2 70p · 860 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago
Roehl 38p · 860 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago
Eric Riback · 860 weeks ago
26376 66p · 860 weeks ago
I think the faithless elector is more likely. Faithless elector could also create McCain/Biden or Obama/Palin; note that the election goes to the House and Senate _separately_ and only if there is no majority for the respective ballots. That is to say, if neither candidate for President receives 270, the election goes to the House, and if neither candidate for VP receives 270, that election goes to the Senate. I doubt you'd see faithlessness at 270-268 like there was with DC in 2000, but it could happen, and 269-268 still goes to the House. (See the Election of 1824: Adams 86, Jackson 99; Adams wins.)
tmess2 70p · 860 weeks ago
Dan_upstate_NY 23p · 860 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 860 weeks ago
tmess2 70p · 860 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago
Has number crunching on a tie scenario, including, hello,ladies, welcome President Pelosi, which I would certainly take.
There's a link there to a comments blog where someone figured out their take on the chances of vote switching, also.
Chad_Nielson 57p · 860 weeks ago