Democratic Convention Watch: The week ahead

Monday, September 22, 2008

The week ahead - an update

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Last night we noted some things to look for this week. 24 hours later, we already have some answers. Let's take a look:

Have the tracking polls stabilized at a 3-4 point Obama lead?

So far, yes. Today's tracking poll average: Obama 48, McCain 44.

Will the non-tracking national polls show a similar race?

Only 1 non-tracking poll released today, but it's right on:

Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN-9/19-21)

When will the state polls follow the national polls? For this to happen, PA, WI, MN should all be at 5 pts or more for Obama. All 3 states were solidly Obama-Lean or better before the conventions, but they're not right now.

Well, we're in definite Meatloaf territory: 2 out of 3 ain't bad:

WI:

Obama 50, McCain 45 (ARG-9/18-21)

MN:

Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 48, McCain 47 (ARG 9/18-9/20)
(average lead of 4.5 points)

PA:

Obama 48, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC-9/16-18)
(average lead of 2.5 points, but note that both surveys ended 4 days ago).

A good start at firming up the Obama-Lean states.

And in honor of both Meatloaf and the closing of Yankee Stadium:

Comments (7)

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bob · 859 weeks ago

Matt. Here's some trivia for ya! Not only was this song my first exposure to Meatloaf when I was "almost" 17 and had just moved to western NC(Hillary land in the primaries) and offered by my brother who was 13 years older and a Vietnam vet, but Meatloaf himself holds the deed to a house not 2 miles from my house which is cared for by the mother of my daughters best friend in abscence, along with his dogs. Ironically, both the Mom that does this along with her hubby and kids are all NJ republicans and Yankees fans! Hopefully my daughter and I can infiltrate the republican thing, but being hardcore RedSox fans(I grew up about an hour from Boston)...that fight is probably a mute one!! Good luck next year in the baseball world, even the best have off years...goes both ways.

Demcon fan

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Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago

hey, I'll gladly take this Yankees off-year if Obama wins. That's a tradeoff I'll make any day.

And supposedly, Rizzuto had no idea about the underlying meaning of his bridge in Paradise.

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SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago

The events of the last month do seem to have rearranged the landscape some. Virginia is looking very good, while Ohio's not so good. Pennsylvania is not as good as it was, but is still Obama territory. Michigan, meanwhile, is firming up.

This is GREAT for the electoral map. If Obama can flip Virginia, Ohio doesn't matter. New Hampshire doesn't matter. Even Colorado doesn't matter. It's pretty much game over at that point.

The bottom line is that the map is very broad right now. There are a dozen ways to win, which means we really have to work in all of these toss-up and lean states!

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Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago

I don't trust VA - not sure why - maybe just the history. I think CO will be the key. If he gets that, he gets to 269. (assumes PA/MI/WI). Then its either NH or NV to push him over the top. (And he wins even without them - but who wants to go though that mess).

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Peter Zenger 62p · 859 weeks ago

If it is that close, there is also the chance for the Nebraska-02 to push him over.

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bob · 859 weeks ago

Didn't mention that my entire family are Obama supporters. Wanted to make that clear so as not to be taken as a plant. My son and I all but wore out our computers hitting the refresh button at the end of the primaries and scrolling constantly to see who switched to Obama when! He (at age 15) is an active member of the Democratic Party knocking on doors and such and I've spent the last week "gently" trying to explain to my 84 year old mother who prefers Obama why her vote still matters. Just that I've posted here several times and get the feeling because of my interest in trying to see all sides of the picture and writing as such don't seem to get any kind of response. I fear it's due to bias toward those who consider all facts, even if they've already made up there mind. While we're on the subject of late 70's and early 80's music, maybe we should be wary of the "Point of No Return" as well...Kansas, for those who don't remember. 538 is quoted here quite often, Nate is a prime example of nuetral...let's follow a good lesson.

Bob

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