WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Last night we noted some things to look for this week. 24 hours later, we already have some answers. Let's take a look:
- Have the tracking polls stabilized at a 3-4 point Obama lead?
- Will the non-tracking national polls show a similar race?
Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN-9/19-21)
- When will the state polls follow the national polls? For this to happen, PA, WI, MN should all be at 5 pts or more for Obama. All 3 states were solidly Obama-Lean or better before the conventions, but they're not right now.
WI:
Obama 50, McCain 45 (ARG-9/18-21)
MN:
Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 48, McCain 47 (ARG 9/18-9/20)
(average lead of 4.5 points)
PA:
Obama 48, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC-9/16-18)
(average lead of 2.5 points, but note that both surveys ended 4 days ago).
A good start at firming up the Obama-Lean states.
And in honor of both Meatloaf and the closing of Yankee Stadium:
bob · 859 weeks ago
Demcon fan
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
And supposedly, Rizzuto had no idea about the underlying meaning of his bridge in Paradise.
SLCScott 74p · 859 weeks ago
This is GREAT for the electoral map. If Obama can flip Virginia, Ohio doesn't matter. New Hampshire doesn't matter. Even Colorado doesn't matter. It's pretty much game over at that point.
The bottom line is that the map is very broad right now. There are a dozen ways to win, which means we really have to work in all of these toss-up and lean states!
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Peter Zenger 62p · 859 weeks ago
bob · 859 weeks ago
Bob
Karen Anne · 859 weeks ago