Monday, September 22, 2008

The week ahead - an update

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

Last night we noted some things to look for this week. 24 hours later, we already have some answers. Let's take a look:

  • Have the tracking polls stabilized at a 3-4 point Obama lead?
So far, yes. Today's tracking poll average: Obama 48, McCain 44.
  • Will the non-tracking national polls show a similar race?
Only 1 non-tracking poll released today, but it's right on:

Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN-9/19-21)
  • When will the state polls follow the national polls? For this to happen, PA, WI, MN should all be at 5 pts or more for Obama. All 3 states were solidly Obama-Lean or better before the conventions, but they're not right now.
Well, we're in definite Meatloaf territory: 2 out of 3 ain't bad:


Obama 50, McCain 45 (ARG-9/18-21)


Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 48, McCain 47 (ARG 9/18-9/20)
(average lead of 4.5 points)


Obama 48, McCain 45 (Rasmussen 9/18)
Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC-9/16-18)
(average lead of 2.5 points, but note that both surveys ended 4 days ago).

A good start at firming up the Obama-Lean states.

And in honor of both Meatloaf and the closing of Yankee Stadium: