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DCW House Forecast: 245.1 (+9.1) [was 244.6 (+8.6)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with three districts moving the other way. The Cook Report is our first forecast to project a double-digit seat gain in the House.
Three Republican seats were added to the chart: ID-1, MD-1 and NE-2. DocJess wrote about ID-1 earlier today. One Republican district, PA-6, was taken off the chart.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... |
| Date | 9/18 | 9/22 | 8/22 | 9/23 | 9/21 | ||
| Dem | 11 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 4 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 13 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 24 | ||
| Tossup | 27 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 15 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 14 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 22 | ||
| Rep | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 6 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 37.7 | 36.4 | 36.2 | 35.2 | 35.1 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | ||
| House Projection | 246.7 | 245.4 | 245.2 | 244.2 | 244.1 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 10.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | ||
| NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | D | D | DL | D | DL | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | T | DL | T | DL | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | T | D | DL | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | RL | T | RL | T | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | RL | RL | T | T | RL | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | RL | R | R | T | RL | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | R | RL | |
| NV 2 (Heller) | R | RL | R | RL | R | RL | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | RL | R | RL | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| ID 1 (Sali) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| MD 1 (Open) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| NE 2 (Terry) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| WY AL (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | T | D | T | DL | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | T | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | D | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| GA 12 (Barrow) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... | ||
Click for Notes and Graph
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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