House Forecast - 9/23 - Looking for double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.1 (+9.1) [was 244.6 (+8.6)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with three districts moving the other way. The Cook Report is our first forecast to project a double-digit seat gain in the House.

Three Republican seats were added to the chart: ID-1, MD-1 and NE-2. DocJess wrote about ID-1 earlier today. One Republican district, PA-6, was taken off the chart.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State	Current	Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....
Date		9/18	9/22	8/22	9/23	9/21
Dem		11	9	9	14	4
Dem-Lean		13	20	18	6	24
Tossup		27	16	20	28	15
Rep-Lean		14	17	14	12	22
Rep		6	9	10	11	6
Dem-Prediction		37.7	36.4	36.2	35.2	35.1
Dem (not shown)		209	209	209	209	209
House Projection		246.7	245.4	245.2	244.2	244.1
Dem-Gain		10.7	9.4	9.2	8.2	8.1
NY 13 (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D
NY 25 (Open)	R	D	D	DL	D	DL
VA 11 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 1 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
IL 11 (Open)	R	DL	T	DL	T	DL
AK AL (Young)	R	T	T	T	D	DL
NJ 3 (Open)	R	T	DL	T	T	T
MN 3 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NJ 7 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NM 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NV 3 (Porter)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 15 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 16 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
CO 4 (Musgrave)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
LA 4 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
NC 8 (Hayes)	R	T	RL	T	T	T
WA 8 (Reichert)	R	T	T	RL	T	T
AL 2 (Open)	R	T	T	T	RL	RL
CT 4 (Shays)	R	T	RL	T	RL	T
MI 7 (Wahlberg)	R	T	T	T	RL	RL
FL 24 (Feeney)	R	T	RL	RL	T	RL
NY 26 (Open)	R	RL	RL	T	T	RL
NY 29 (Kuhl)	R	T	RL	RL	T	RL
IL 10 (Kirk)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
NM 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
OH 1 (Chabot)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MO 6 (Graves)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
PA 3 (English)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
FL 8 (Keller)	R	RL	R	R	T	RL
OH 2 (Schmidt)	R	R	RL	RL	RL	RL
VA 2 (Drake)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	R
MO 9 (Open)	R	RL	RL	R	R	RL
NV 2 (Heller)	R	RL	R	RL	R	RL
FL 13 (Buchanan)	R	R	R	RL	R	RL
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
ID 1 (Sali)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
CA 4 (Open)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
MD 1 (Open)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
NE 2 (Terry)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
WV 2 (Moore Capito)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
WY AL (Open)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
TX 22 (Lampson)	D	T	T	T	RL	T
LA 6 (Cazayoux)	D	T	T	T	T	T
AL 5 (Open)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
KS 2 (Boyda)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
FL 16 (Mahoney)	D	DL	DL	T	T	T
PA 11 (Kanjorski)	D	T	T	D	T	DL
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)	D	T	DL	DL	T	DL
PA 10 (Carney)	D	T	DL	DL	T	DL
CA 11 (McNerney)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
GA 8 (Marshall)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
WI 8 (Kagen)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
MS 1 (Childers)	D	T	DL	DL	D	DL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 8 (Giffords)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
PA 4 (Altmire)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IL 14 (Foster)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
IN 9 (Hill)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
OR 5 (Open)	D	D	DL	DL	DL	DL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)	D	D	DL	DL	D	DL
CT 5 (Murphy)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
GA 12 (Barrow)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
MN 1 (Walz)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
		Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....

Click for Notes and Graph



The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.