WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
DCW House Forecast: 245.1 (+9.1) [was 244.6 (+8.6)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with three districts moving the other way. The Cook Report is our first forecast to project a double-digit seat gain in the House.
Three Republican seats were added to the chart: ID-1, MD-1 and NE-2. DocJess wrote about ID-1 earlier today. One Republican district, PA-6, was taken off the chart.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
DCW House Forecast | |||||||
State | Current | Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... |
Date | 9/18 | 9/22 | 8/22 | 9/23 | 9/21 | ||
Dem | 11 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 4 | ||
Dem-Lean | 13 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 24 | ||
Tossup | 27 | 16 | 20 | 28 | 15 | ||
Rep-Lean | 14 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 22 | ||
Rep | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 6 | ||
Dem-Prediction | 37.7 | 36.4 | 36.2 | 35.2 | 35.1 | ||
Dem (not shown) | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | ||
House Projection | 246.7 | 245.4 | 245.2 | 244.2 | 244.1 | ||
Dem-Gain | 10.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | ||
NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
NY 25 (Open) | R | D | D | DL | D | DL | |
VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
AZ 1 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | T | DL | T | DL | |
AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | T | D | DL | |
NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
OH 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | RL | T | RL | T | |
MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
FL 24 (Feeney) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
NY 26 (Open) | R | RL | RL | T | T | RL | |
NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
NM 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | T | RL | |
OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
PA 3 (English) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
FL 8 (Keller) | R | RL | R | R | T | RL | |
OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | |
MO 9 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | R | RL | |
NV 2 (Heller) | R | RL | R | RL | R | RL | |
FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | RL | R | RL | |
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
ID 1 (Sali) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
CA 4 (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
MD 1 (Open) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
NE 2 (Terry) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
WY AL (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | RL | T | |
LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
AL 5 (Open) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | T | D | T | DL | |
NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
CA 11 (McNerney) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
MS 1 (Childers) | D | T | DL | DL | D | DL | |
AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
OR 5 (Open) | D | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | D | DL | DL | D | DL | |
CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
GA 12 (Barrow) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... |
Click for Notes and Graph

The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
26376 66p · 859 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 859 weeks ago
Esch’s inclusion on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list will give him access to more campaign cash, and he’ll probably will wind up spending more than the $420,000 that his 2006 campaign laid out. And the Terry campaign this week aired a television advertisement that attacks Esch on energy policy — something it probably would not have done if it thought Esch wasn’t at least a potential threat.
My comment: Sounds like its driven by the DCCC committing to spend money in the race. If the Obama campaign is also working the district, the DCCC figures maybe they'll get lucky?
Peter Zenger 62p · 859 weeks ago
Jim Esch is a great guy and will be a true voice for change in Washington. Lee Terry has overstayed his welcome. As the Obama campaign mobilizes to secure one of Nebraska's electoral college votes, this will clearly help Esch win this race.
tmess2 70p · 859 weeks ago
Given the divisions of Kansas Republicans, Boyda is probably a little bit safer than current projections.
James L · 859 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago