Tuesday, September 23, 2008

House Forecast - 9/23 - Looking for double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.1 (+9.1) [was 244.6 (+8.6)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with three districts moving the other way. The Cook Report is our first forecast to project a double-digit seat gain in the House.

Three Republican seats were added to the chart: ID-1, MD-1 and NE-2. DocJess wrote about ID-1 earlier today. One Republican district, PA-6, was taken off the chart.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentCookSSPCrystal BallRothCQ....
Date

9/189/228/229/239/21
Dem

1199144
Dem-Lean

132018624
Tossup

2716202815
Rep-Lean

1417141222
Rep

6910116
Dem-Prediction

37.736.436.235.235.1
Dem (not shown)

209209209209209
House Projection

246.7245.4245.2244.2244.1
Dem-Gain

10.79.49.28.28.1

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDLDDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
IL 11 (Open)
RDLTDLTDL
AK AL (Young)
RTTTDDL
NJ 3 (Open)
RTDLTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTRLTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTTRLTT
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
CT 4 (Shays)
RTRLTRLT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTRLRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RTRLRLTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RRLRLTTRL
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTRLRLTRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTRLRLRLRL
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTRLRLRLRL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
PA 3 (English)
RRLRLRLRLRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLRRTRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRRLRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRLRLRLR
MO 9 (Open)
RRLRLRRRL
NV 2 (Heller)
RRLRRLRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRLRRL
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRRR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRRR
CA 4 (Open)
RRRRRRL
MD 1 (Open)
RRLRRRR
NE 2 (Terry)
RRLRRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DTDLTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DTDLTTT
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLDLTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTDTDL
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DTDLDLTDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DTDLDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLTDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLTDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DTDLDLDDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDDLDLDLDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDDLDLDDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
GA 12 (Barrow)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


CookSSPCrystal BallRothCQ....































































































Click for Notes and Graph



The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.