Tuesday, September 23, 2008

House Forecast - 9/23 - Looking for double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.1 (+9.1) [was 244.6 (+8.6)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with three districts moving the other way. The Cook Report is our first forecast to project a double-digit seat gain in the House.

Three Republican seats were added to the chart: ID-1, MD-1 and NE-2. DocJess wrote about ID-1 earlier today. One Republican district, PA-6, was taken off the chart.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentCookSSPCrystal BallRothCQ....
Date

9/189/228/229/239/21
Dem

1199144
Dem-Lean

132018624
Tossup

2716202815
Rep-Lean

1417141222
Rep

6910116
Dem-Prediction

37.736.436.235.235.1
Dem (not shown)

209209209209209
House Projection

246.7245.4245.2244.2244.1
Dem-Gain

10.79.49.28.28.1

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDLDDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
IL 11 (Open)
RDLTDLTDL
AK AL (Young)
RTTTDDL
NJ 3 (Open)
RTDLTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTRLTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTTRLTT
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
CT 4 (Shays)
RTRLTRLT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTRLRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RTRLRLTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RRLRLTTRL
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTRLRLTRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTRLRLRLRL
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTRLRLRLRL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
PA 3 (English)
RRLRLRLRLRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLRRTRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRRLRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRLRLRLR
MO 9 (Open)
RRLRLRRRL
NV 2 (Heller)
RRLRRLRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRLRRL
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRRR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRRR
CA 4 (Open)
RRRRRRL
MD 1 (Open)
RRLRRRR
NE 2 (Terry)
RRLRRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DTDLTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DTDLTTT
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLDLTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTDTDL
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DTDLDLTDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DTDLDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLTDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLTDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DTDLDLDDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDDLDLDLDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDDLDLDDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
GA 12 (Barrow)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


CookSSPCrystal BallRothCQ....































































































Click for Notes and Graph



The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Comments (6)

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NE-02 is the first Nebraska or Maine district to make the chart. Given the strong power of incumbency in the House in general, should this be a sign that Obama is closer in NE-02, or is something else driving this race?
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2 replies · active less than 1 minute ago
Cook's description is behind a firewall, but CQ also moved the race from Safe to Favored, and here is what they said:

Esch’s inclusion on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list will give him access to more campaign cash, and he’ll probably will wind up spending more than the $420,000 that his 2006 campaign laid out. And the Terry campaign this week aired a television advertisement that attacks Esch on energy policy — something it probably would not have done if it thought Esch wasn’t at least a potential threat.

My comment: Sounds like its driven by the DCCC committing to spend money in the race. If the Obama campaign is also working the district, the DCCC figures maybe they'll get lucky?
Reply
To quote another Nebraskan, it is time to "Git Er Done!"

Jim Esch is a great guy and will be a true voice for change in Washington. Lee Terry has overstayed his welcome. As the Obama campaign mobilizes to secure one of Nebraska's electoral college votes, this will clearly help Esch win this race.
Reply
If New Mexico-1 is Wilson's old seat, I think the projections are being way too pessimistic. Wilson could barely hold it with the money edge and with the incumbent factor.

Given the divisions of Kansas Republicans, Boyda is probably a little bit safer than current projections.
Reply
Too bad you posted this tonight. SSP is rolling out a ton of ratings changes in the morning! :)
Reply
uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 859 weeks ago

Wow! if Obama has coattails, and if the DCCC keeps spending the money, there are really nearly 20 seats to be gained!!! (say to MI7) of course we could loses a couple of the Dems and miss on a couple of the barely Rep leans, but the idea that we might 255 and leave them with only 180 is exciting!
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