Presidential Forecast - 9/22 - Welcome to Fall

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On the first day of fall, Obama consolidates his recent gains, improving by 7 EVs to lead 284-254, an increase of 8 EVs from our last forecast. Notably, for the first time in 2 weeks, all of the projections now have Obama in the lead.

We have a new tipping point state, NH.

Map changes: Towards Obama: WI: T->OL.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT. NH, NM, NC, PA, WV, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	538 .com	Open Left	FHQ	CNN	RCP	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	RM	NBC	EVs
Date		9/22.	9/22.	9/22.	9/19.	9/22.	9/22.	9/22.	9/19.	9/22.
Obama-Strong (O)		260	189	157	160	164	157	153	193	157
Obama-Lean (OL)		26	59	65	63	55	45	45	66	76
Tossup (T)		25	97	156	115	130	147	156	32	78
McCain-Lean (ML)		72	47	19	75	26	49	38	58	67
McCain-Strong (M)		155	146	141	125	163	140	146	189	160
Obama Total		286	248	222	223	219	202	198	259	233
McCain Total		227	193	160	200	189	189	184	247	227
Obama Est.		312	294	291	283	278.2	276	275	273	270
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	68
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	72
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	93
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	103
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	115
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	146
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	150
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	153
Maine	4	O	OL	O	OL	O	O	T	O	O	157
Iowa	7	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	164
New Jersey	15	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	179
Oregon	7	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	186
Washington	11	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	197
New Mexico	5	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	202
Minnesota	10	O	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	O	OL	212
Michigan	17	O	OL	T	T	OL	T	T	OL	T	229
Pennsylvania	21	O	T	T	OL	T	T	T	OL	OL	250
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	OL	T	260
Colorado	9	OL	O	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	269
NH	4	OL	ML	T	T	T	T	T	OL	T	273
Virginia	13	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	286
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	291
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	311
Florida	27	ML	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	338
Indiana	11	ML	T	T	ML	T	ML	T	ML	ML	349
Missouri	11	ML	ML	T	ML	ML	T	ML	M	ML	360
N. Carolina	15	ML	ML	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	375
Montana	3	ML	ML	T	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML	378
W. Virginia	5	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	T	M	M
Louisiana	9	M	ML	M	ML	M	ML	ML	M	M
Arkansas	6	M	M	M	ML	M	ML	M	M	M
Alaska	3	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
Georgia	15	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M
N. Dakota	3	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Arizona	10	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		538 .com	Open Left	FHQ	CNN	RCP	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	RM	NBC	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.