Monday, September 22, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/22 - Welcome to Fall

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On the first day of fall, Obama consolidates his recent gains, improving by 7 EVs to lead 284-254, an increase of 8 EVs from our last forecast. Notably, for the first time in 2 weeks, all of the projections now have Obama in the lead.

We have a new tipping point state, NH.

Map changes: Towards Obama: WI: T->OL.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT. NH, NM, NC, PA, WV, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftFHQCNNRCPElect. Proj.EV.
com
RMNBCEVs
Date

9/22.9/22.9/22.9/19.9/22.9/22.9/22.9/19.9/22.
Obama-Strong (O)

260189157160164157153193157
Obama-Lean (OL)

265965635545456676
Tossup (T)

25971561151301471563278
McCain-Lean (ML)

724719752649385867
McCain-Strong (M)

155146141125163140146189160
Obama Total

286248222223219202198259233
McCain Total

227193160200189189184247227
Obama Est.

312294291283278.2276275273270

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOLOOLOOTOO157
Iowa
7OOOLOLOOLOLOLOL164
New Jersey
15OOOLOLOLOLOLOOL179
Oregon
7OOLOLOOLOLOLOLOL186
Washington
11OOLOLOLOLOLOLOOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLOLOLOLTOL202
Minnesota
10OOLOLTTTTOOL212
Michigan
17OOLTTOLTTOLT229
Pennsylvania
21OTTOLTTTOLOL250
Wisconsin
10OOLOLTTTTOLT260
Colorado
9OLOTTTTTTT269
NH
4OLMLTTTTTOLT273
Virginia
13OLTTTTTTTT286
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT291
Ohio
20TTTTTTTMLT311
Florida
27MLTTTTTTMLML338
Indiana
11MLTTMLTMLTMLML349
Missouri
11MLMLTMLMLTMLMML360
N. Carolina
15MLMLTMLMLMLMLMML375
Montana
3MLMLTMLMMLMLMML378
W. Virginia
5MLMLMLMLMMLTMM
Louisiana
9MMLMMLMMLMLMM
Arkansas
6MMMMLMMLMMM
Alaska
3MMMLMMMMMM
Georgia
15MMMMLMMMMM
N. Dakota
3MMMLMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftFHQCNNRCPElect. Proj.EV.
com
RMNBC....




















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.