John Chancellor, Dan Rather and Oreo

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What do John Chancellor, Dan Rather and our own Oreo have in common? Take a look:

In 1964, NBC reporter John Chancellor was ejected from the floor of the 1964 Republican Convention:

Senator Barry Goldwater's conservative supporters were increasingly unfriendly to television reporters, and during a demonstration by delegates, guards ejected Mr. Chancellor for blocking the aisles.

"I've been promised bail, ladies and gentlemen, by my office," he said on the air. His sign-off was, "This is John Chancellor, somewhere in custody." - NY Times.

In 1968, Dan Rather was essentially assaulted on the floor of the 1968 Democratic Convention.

Some classic lines:
Rather: "Unless you intend to arrest me, don't push me"
Walter Cronkite: "I think we got a bunch of thugs here, Dan"

And today, our own Oreo, attending a media briefing at Invesco Field, was rudely escorted by an security guard out of the building. Well, actually, he wasn't rudely escorted anywhere. He had wandered to an entrance he wasn't supposed to be at, was scolded for being in the wrong place, and directed to the proper entrance.

But hey, that's good enough for us. Chancellor, Rather, and Oreo. Just some intrepid reporters trying to do a thankless job in the face of overbearing security. Or something like that...

Senate Forecast - July 31 - Baked Alaska II

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DCW Senate Forecast: 56.1 (up from 55.9). More Alaska movement, from EV.Com, CQ and Crystal Ball. The Forecast has broken 56 for the first time!

The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State	Current	EV .com	538 .com	Crystal Ball	Cook	CQ	Open Left	SSP	Roth	....
Date		7/31.	7/28.	7/29.	7/31.	7/31.	7/29.	7/29.	7/30.
Dem-Strong		13	15	12	12	12	13	13	12
Dem-Lean		4	2	5	3	5	4	3	2
Tossup		2	1	1	5	1	0	1	4
Rep-Lean		4	3	4	2	3	4	4	2
Rep-Strong		12	14	13	13	14	14	14	15
Dem '08 Projection		18	18	17	17	17	17	17	16
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Dem Senate Projection		57	57	56	56	56	56	56	55
Dem-Gain		6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4
AK (Stevens)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T	T
CO (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	DL	DL	T
GA (Chambliss)	R	RL	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
KY (McConnell)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R	RL	R	R
LA (Landrieu)	D	DL	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T
ME (Collins)	R	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R	R
MN (Coleman)	R	RL	R	RL	T	RL	RL	RL	T
MS (Wicker)	R	T	T	T	T	T	RL	RL	RL
NC (Dole)	R	R	R	RL	RL	R	R	RL	R
NH (Sununu)	R	D	D	DL	T	DL	D	DL	DL
NJ (Lautenberg)	D	DL	D	D	D	D	DL	D	D
NM (Open)	R	D	D	DL	DL	DL	D	D	DL
OR (Smith)	R	T	RL	RL	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Here are the seats that span 3 categories:

• KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
• LA (Landrieu): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
• MN : 538 at Rep-Strong.
  
• NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
  

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

The DemConWatch Denver Daisy Challenge

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We wrote about the NY Times story which declared that the Denver Daisy was extremely hard to grow and was basically an embarrassment for the town and Mayor Hickenlooper.

The plight of the yellow flower was raised at a city meeting this week by municipal officials who said their own efforts to grow the flower had failed miserably.

“It’s like having a cake, and you can’t light the candles,” Councilman Charlie Brown said. “I’ve been a gardener for 40 years, and all I’ve got is a bare spot.”

After a comment by Steve Jones from the Denver Marketing Office refuting the daisy's demise we've decided to try our hand at gardening.

From Wash Park to the 16th Street Mall, almost 7,000 Denver Daisies are blooming in parks throughout the city. Some residents have found the germination process difficult, but the daisy is getting a lot of bad press that is, for the most part, based on the opinion and experience of one person rather than factual data.

And he also gave us some gardening tips:

The critical thing is to keep the soil moist throughout the germination process. That doesn't mean to make it into mud or a soup. It does mean, however, that you can't let the soil go bone-dry in the 100-degree Denver heat one day and not expect it to wipe out the seed. Some gardeners I know have started the seeds in small pots and then transferred the seedlings into the ground. I'm not a gardener, but they've told me that's a normal means of growing from seed.

Over the coming weeks we will do some Mythbusting of our own. Is the Denver Daisy a Dud?
Mr. Jones is going to send us some seeds and we're going to work our magic. Stay tuned!

And in case you're wondering, the picture above is from Denver's beautiful Washington Park (Wash Park for us locals). Click on the image to see it in full size.

NBC to broadcast all 4 nights of the convention

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The last few conventions the broadcast networks have been covering just 3 nights of each convention. NBC has always has the best excuse, saying viewers could always watch full coverage on MSNBC. Well, NBC has stepped up (at least a little) to its public responsibility, and will broadcast an hour all 4 nights:

"NBC Nightly News" anchor Brian Williams leads the network's four nights of coverage from each convention, while MSNBC's Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews anchor coverage on cable. Tom Brokaw, who has covered every presidential election since 1968, will contribute unparalleled reporting and analysis on both the NBC network and on MSNBC throughout both conventions.

and in a nice touch

Luke Russert joins NBC News in his first assignment for Decision 2008 as correspondent at large for the conventions, focusing on youth issues. Luke Russert recently graduated from Boston College with a double major in History and Communications. Since March of 2006, he has co-hosted the critically acclaimed sports radio talk show "60/20 Sports" with political pundit James Carville on XM Satellite Radio. On "60/20 Sports" he has interviewed the likes of former President Clinton, former President George Bush, Bill Russell, Cal Ripken Jr. and Lance Armstrong. Luke is the son of the late Tim Russert and of Vanity Fair writer Maureen Orth.

It will be interesting to see if the two other major broadcast news networks, ABC and CBS, follow NBC's lead.

DNC Orientation Video Courtesy of Westword

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In advance of next month's Democratic National Convention, Adam Cayton-Holland, Westword's resident fake drunk cowboy, and his friends at Wrist Deep Productions, have put together a handy DNC Orientation Video. It should probably used by the city to help make conventioneers, GOP spies, and business-savvy strippers feel welcome.

Are You Excited?

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Earlier this week, Gallup came out with two polls that seemingly contradicted one another. In the poll of "registered voters", Obama came out ahead, and in the poll of "likely voters", McCain came out ahead.

The difference between a registered voter and a likely voter is the poll respondent's answer to the question: "Are you planning on voting in November?" or some variation of that question. If someone says "YES! I wouldn't miss it. This is the most important thing I'm going to do this year", they're a likely voter. OK, that's over the top: the truth is, it's multiple choice: some variation of likely, unlikely, unsure. Sometimes the poll will then push for a lean to likely or unlikely.

Then, the pollster weights the responses in extrapolating the polls out. They give less weight to people in certain demographics who tend not to vote. Therefore, since young people vote at a lower percentage than other age groups, the pollsters often consider that they won't necessarily vote in November.

In one of the NY Times op-ed pieces yesterday, they talked about the potential affect of third party candidates on the November 2008 outcome.

The NY Times raised an interesting point yesterday. They talked in an op-ed piece about the potential effect of third party candidates on the November outcome. One of the factors that they looked at in terms of whether actual voters stick with their candidate relates to the enthusiasm of a candidate's supporters.

I believe that the single thing that will turn "registered voters" into "likely voters" is enthusiasm. I've never actually seen any research on this point, but intuitively, it makes logical sense.

The Times looked at the enthusiasm gap over the last three elections.
If you look at the table, you'll see that no matter what the poll number, the person with the higher enthusiasm "quotient" won the election over the last three cycles. So, two poll questions:

Online Surveys & Market Research

Online Surveys & Market Research

Remember Katherine Harris?

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Sure you do. After she was done with the statewide Presidential vote, she decided to run for Congress, and ended up representing the Florida-13th for two terms.

In 2006, she decided to run for the Senate, and Vern Buchanan (R) mostly self-financed a run against Christine Jennings (D). He “won” by 369 votes. There was an issue of 18,000 “missing” votes, a recount, court cases, and finally a finding that allowed Buchanan to keep the seat.

The 2006 Jennings-Buchanan election actually had input to the 2008 primary season. You may recall that Florida decided to hold their primary a little before the proposed DNC date. The legislation passed the Florida Legislature with support from Florida Democrats. One of the major reasons was that the full bill also included provisions to ensure that all elections have paper trails, to preclude another wholesale theft of 18,000 votes. So here it is, July 2008, and Jennings and Buchanan are having a rematch. I could talk about money, polling and demographics, but why not go straight to the crime?

Vern Buchanan owns car dealerships. According to the Sarasota Herald Tribune:

Two former executives for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan's auto dealerships said they were pressured to donate to Buchanan's 2006 congressional campaign and were offered cash and gifts as inducements, which would violate federal campaign laws.

They actually filed/are filing civil suits, but the upshot here is that if the allegations are true, we’re talking felony.

DNCC CEO Daughtry answers on-line questions

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Democratic National Convention CEO Leah D. Daughtry held an online discussion at Washintonpost.com. Here are some highlights:

Franconia, Va.: Is the convention later this year than in years past? Does it always come after the Summer Olympics, or is it usually before them?

Another question about timing -- were the dates chosen to coincide with the I Have a Dream speech anniversary, or was that simply a bonus once the time was picked?

Leah D. Daughtry: There is no rule to the scheduling of the Conventions -- other than an informal understanding that the Party that holds the White House holds its Convention last.

We actually chose our dates back in 2005 when we were preparing to solicit bids from cities to host the convention. And the fact that they align with Dr. King's historic speech is just a happy coincidence.

------------------------------------------

New Orleans, La.: Do you and your RNC convention counterpart Maria Cino ever meet and compare notes, and possibly discuss particular issues, or do the two of you keep totally apart?

Leah D. Daughtry: I have had the wonderful opportunity to meet Maria Cino, the CEO of the Republican Convention. And we've actually kept in touch fairly regularly over this last year. She is a wonderful woman and a consummate professional.

------------------------------------------

Dunn Loring, Va.: Has the Obama campaign begun coordinating with the DNC committee yet, after not informing it of his plans to accept the nomination at the stadium?

Leah D. Daughtry: We work in close coordination with the Obama team, and have ever since the Senator became the presumptive nominee.

Regarding our decision to move to Invesco on Thursday night, this was a decision that the DNCC and the Obama campaign made jointly after many, many meetings and discussions. We were only able to even suggest and consider such a move because of the wonderful headstart and ongoing progress we'd made in our planning. Without that, such a move wouldn't have been possible.

Obama aide: Clinton to speak on Tuesday. Will she be Keynote?

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As we noted yesterday, the tea leaves are pointing to Hillary Clinton speaking to the convention on Tuesday night. Now comes some unofficial confirmation:

Hillary Clinton has agreed to speak on Day 2 of the Democratic convention to commemorate the 88th anniversary of women's right to vote - a move seen by delegates as another sign she won't be on Barack Obama's ticket, the Daily News learned.

A top Obama aide told party leaders in a conference call last night that Clinton has accepted the offer to be the featured prime-time Tuesday night speaker, a high-profile slot that some of Clinton's own people have floated in recent days. Aug. 26 is the anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment, which granted women the right to vote in 1920.

That historical tidbit was shared by Obama aide Jennifer Koch, one of Obama's deputy political directors for the Northeast, in a conference call last night night with a group of Massachusetts delegates, among them DNC Rules Committee co-chair James Roosevelt.

Koch added that Obama's vice presidential nominee - whomever that turns out to be - will likely speak Monday and Wednesday evening as part of the traditional build-up to Obama accepting the nomination on Thursday night.
...
Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, had no immediate comment on when or in what context Clinton might be addressing the convention, in keeping with a general policy on the planned Denver pow-wow. "We are not talking about any convention decisions," he told The News.
...
"For me, Barack Obama is the nominee and we all have to get together, because this is not going to be an easy election," said Bickford, a longtime Clinton supporter. "Having her be the keynote on one night is enough for me."

The article is headlined:"Hillary Clinton agrees to Denver keynote", but there's really no confirmation of that in the article.

And the VP speaking Monday and Wednesday? He or she had better be a great speaker...

Update: CNN has confirmed:

Sen. Hillary Clinton has agreed to speak on the second night of next month's Democratic convention, headlining on the 88th anniversary of the day women earned the right to vote, sources say.

Two sources close to Clinton said the former presidential candidate will speak August 26 with all female U.S. senators on stage with her.

"Tuesday night is Hillary night," said one supporter.

Dueling Conventions

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We've digressed before over to St. Paul in the first week of September. The GOP has reserved 16,000 hotel rooms to host what they claim will be 45,000 attendees. I'm not sure whether that means they will be encouraging unmarried (to each other) attendees to share rooms, or whether even they realize their attendance expectations are wildly optimistic.

We know about the Senators that don't "have time" to attend, like Liddy Dole, and the Senators who won't be allowed to come, like Chuck Grassley. They can't get the projected number of volunteers. And it seems that there are more than 7,000 potential attendees that have committed to being elsewhere. No, not at the beach for that one last shot at summer, nor home getting their kids ready for the first day of school. Rather, across town at the Ron Paul "Rally for the Republic". Tickets went on sale, and they have put a counter up on the site, and the last time I looked, they were up to 7,390 attendees. The Paul site says that it is a "clear call to the Republican Party to return to its roots." I know we like to talk here about the professional polls, but gee-whiz, when the party faithful won't show up....perhaps this is a sign the pollsters have missed.

Probably that means that people who actually have committed to attending won't have to share hotel rooms, if even the pictures insinuate that perhaps they want to....

Your Senate Forecast

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The new Senate forecast is up, and suddenly the professionals are moving Alaska. But why should they have all the fun? How many Senate seats do YOU think we're going to win? Please use the comments section to list your picks.

Online Surveys & Market Research

Senate Forecast - July 30 - Baked Alaska

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DCW Senate Forecast: 55.9 (up from 55.8), highlighted by OpenLeft, SSP Cook and Rothenberg all moving Alaska in the Democrat's direction.

The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DCW Senate Forecast
State	Current	538 .com	EV .com	Open Left	Crystal Ball	Cook	CQ	SSP	Roth	....
Date		7/28	7/19	7/29	6/18	7/17	7/29	7/29	7/30
Dem-Strong		15	13	13	12	12	12	13	12
Dem-Lean		2	2	4	4	2	3	3	2
Tossup		1	4	0	2	6	4	1	4
Rep-Lean		3	4	4	4	2	2	4	2
Rep-Strong		14	12	14	13	13	14	14	15
Dem-Prediction		18	17	17	17	17	17	17	16
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Senate Projection		57	56	56	56	56	56	56	55
Dem-Gain		6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
AK (Stevens)	R	DL	T	DL	T	T	DL	T	T
CO (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	T	T	DL	T
GA (Chambliss)	R	R	RL	R	R	R	R	R	R
KY (McConnell)	R	RL	T	RL	R	R	R	R	R
LA (Landrieu)	D	D	T	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T
ME (Collins)	R	R	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
MN (Coleman)	R	R	RL	RL	RL	T	T	RL	T
MS (Wicker)	R	T	T	RL	T	T	T	RL	RL
NC (Dole)	R	R	R	R	RL	RL	R	RL	R
NH (Sununu)	R	D	D	D	DL	T	T	DL	DL
NJ (Lautenberg)	D	D	DL	DL	D	D	D	D	D
NM (Open)	R	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
OR (Smith)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	T	RL	RL	RL
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Here are the seats that span 3 categories:

• CO - Two projections have it as strong D, 3 as Tossup. Udall is up by 9 or more points in all polls since June.
  
• KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
• LA (Landrieu) (NEW): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
• MN (NEW): 538 at Rep-Strong.
  
• MS (Wicker): Rothenberg has it as a "Clear Advantage" for Wicker, but Rasmussen's poll out on 6/24 shows Wicker with a 1 point lead.
  
• NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
  

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

Retro Veepstakes!

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I know that most of us are in awe of Discovery channel's SHARK WEEK! right now (and really, who isn't?) but there are two other bits which also caught my attention this week.

The first is the gushing over recent Vice Presidential prospects floated in the media, which while they are all great public servants - I'm just not fired-up or ready-to-go for any of them. The other thing I caught was an old UCLA recap on ESPN Classic.

Which got me thinking...Classic Veepstakes!

Politico offers a decent Op-Ed on the ups-and-downs of selecting a runningmate during the presidential campaign, and the only three tasks a veep candidate has: a good announcement, a good convention speech and a good debate. I sure miss the days when Vice Presidential nominees were made to have a little fun (or be made fun of, as in Dan Quayle's case - God bless 'em).

So here's a gem from the 1988 campaign. RIP, Lloyd Bentsen.



And here's one of my favorites from Al Gore's glory days in 1992:



I would have added a wonderful clip of John Edwards from 2004, but alas - he was never given the chance to offer up such good deeds in that campaign.

Presidential Forecast - 7/29 - The Dog Days

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Obama leads 303-235, no change over the last two forecasts. With Rasmussen moving Ohio from Obama-Lean to Tossup, and 538 moving it the exact opposite way, there's not much in the way of trends.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. NC moves from Tossup to McCain.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Note: Only 3 states have shifted categories on the consensus map and not shifted back:
6/18 FL: McCain -> Tossup
7/6 MT: McCain -> Tossup
7/9 NM: Tossup -> Obama

Of special note is NC, which has shifted 4 times between McCain and Tossup.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	538 .com	RCP	RM	CNN	NBC	.…
Date		7/29.	7/29.	7/29.	7/27.	7/29.	7/29.	7/22.	7/24.	7/9.
Obama-Strong (O)		236	190	197	175	238	153	210	153	168
Obama-Lean (OL)		28	70	49	47	55	85	63	68	42
Tossup (T)		102	107	118	159	21	137	38	128	139
McCain-Lean (ML)		85	95	91	66	70	64	62	64	53
McCain-Strong (M)		87	76	83	91	154	99	165	125	136
Obama Total		264	260	246	222	293	238	273	221	210
McCain Total		172	171	174	157	224	163	227	189	189
Obama Est.		326	319	313	305	303	302	292	284	282
Texas	34	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M	M
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	T	T
Pennsylvania	21	O	OL	OL	T	O	OL	OL	OL	T
Ohio	20	T	T	ML	T	OL	T	T	T	T
Michigan	17	OL	OL	T	T	OL	T	OL	T	T
Georgia	15	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	M	ML	ML
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL
N. Carolina	15	ML	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	ML	ML
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Indiana	11	T	ML	T	T	ML	T	M	ML	ML
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	T	T
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	O
Arizona	10	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Minnesota	10	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL	O	T	OL
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	O	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	OL	T	OL	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M
Iowa	7	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL	T	T
Oregon	7	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	T	T
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	O
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	OL	T	OL	T	T
Alaska	3	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M	ML
Delaware	3	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	O	O	O
Montana	3	T	T	OL	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	ML	T	T	ML	ML	ML	M	ML
S. Dakota	3	M	ML	T	M	ML	M	ML	M	ML
		Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	538 .com	RCP	RM	CNN	NBC	.…

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Here are the states that span 3 categories.

• Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
• Iowa: Two at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup. Only July poll shows Obama up by 10.
  
• Minnesota : 4 at Obama-Strong, CNN at Tossup
  
• Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 4 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
  
• New Mexico (NEW): 1 Projection at Obama-Strong, 3 at Tossup. This used to be on the 3 category list, but spanning Obama-Lean to McCain-Lean.
  
• North Dakota - CNN at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
• Ohio (NEW): EV.com at McCain-Lean, 538 at Obama-Lean, everyone else at Tossup
  
• Pennsylvania: OpenLeft at Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
  
• South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
• South Dakota: EV.com at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong
  

We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Do I hear 60 calling?

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With Ted Stevens, it was always a case of which came first, the election or the indictment. But when I wrote this past Sunday

"Remember, Stevens won his last election with 72% of the vote, and has been there longer than a lot of people have been alive (since 1968) – and don’t forget, there’s an indictment coming."

I had no idea we were T-H-I-S close.

The indictment presents two interesting sides. First, the Alaska primary is not until 26 August, and one must withdraw one’s name 45 days before the primary date, or stay on the ballot. So Stevens stays. Now, Stevens has almost $1.5 million cash on hand, and if you add all 6 of his other competitors together, they don’t have half a million. In fact, in total, they have $71,298 cash on hand as of 30 June.

If he wins the primary, Stevens can withdraw from the general up to 45 days before Election Day, giving him a few weeks to make a decision, but if he doesn’t want to pull his name, the State GOP doesn’t seem able to make him. And even if they did, who would they run? A Republican who would have lost to Stevens in the primary? Sarah Palin with her pending legal problems? Key words “abuse of power” “firing/not firing” “child custody battle” “sister”.

Expect a lot of the professional pollsters to suddenly move those “Republican Lean” and “Toss-up” ratings.

The second side is the money that Stevens PAC has doled out.

"Stevens' Northern Lights PAC has doled out almost $145,000 to GOP candidates this cycle, including $10,000 checks to Republicans Elizabeth Dole, Pat Roberts and Gordon Smith, all running for re-election against credible challengers this year, as well as smaller checks to John Sununu, Roger Wicker, Mike Johanns, Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn. The PAC also handed a $5,000 check to John McCain's presidential campaign."

Don’t campaigns normally give back money from criminals? Oh, sorry, “an indictment is not a conviction.”

Remember, Stevens still has his supporters.

"Another Republican, Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, said, "I have known Ted Stevens for 28 years, and I have always found him to be impeccably honest."

Another GOP Senator blows off convention

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Is the nomination of John McCain for President that toxic an event for GOP Senators? Last week we noted that Stevens and Collins were skipping St. Paul. And now another one is now citing "scheduling conflicts":

WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina won't be attending the Republican national convention, which begins over Labor Day weekend.
...
"She's got a busy week scheduled in North Carolina," Hallaway said. "When there are breaks in the Senate schedule, she spends as much time as possible in North Carolina."
...
Her absence from the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., is a notable one. Dole is a bona-fide GOP rock star, the type of speaker who could rally the faithful at the daily state delegation breakfasts.

In addition, she's a former presidential candidate herself, running briefly in 2000, and the wife of popular former U.S. Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, who was the party's standard bearer in 1996. The co-chair of the GOP platform committee is her fellow North Carolina senator, Richard Burr.

Elizabeth Dole had a prime-time television speaking role at the last GOP convention in New York City, where she praised President Bush and talked in support of traditional marriage, freedom of religion and the sanctity of life. - McClatchy

Veepstakes Part 27A

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Another day, another rumour. "They" say Kaine or Bayh for Obama, Romney or Pawlenty for McCain. But the real question is: who goes first?

Online Surveys & Market Research

Senator Ted Stevens Indicted

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This just in from the tubes!

Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) has just been indicted on 7 counts.

Alaska Senator Ted Stevens was indicted by a U.S. grand jury in Washington on charges of hiding hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts he received.

Stevens, a Republican, was charged with seven counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms from 1999 to 2006 about gifts and renovations on his house.

Stevens ``knowingly and willfully engaged in a scheme to conceal'' his receipt of ``hundreds of thousands of dollars'' of gifts from Veco Corp., an oil-field engineering firm, and its chief executive officer, the indictment said.

The gifts included improvements on a home in Alaska, new vehicles, furniture and a professional Viking gas grill, according to the court papers. - Bloomberg

Convention schedule taking form

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Update:
Tuesday Official Convention Schedule
Monday Official Convention Schedule
Complete 4-day Convention schedule
2008 Democratic Convention Speeches

Latest Democratic Convention News and Notes

----------------------------------------------------------------
The below information is from late July.
Hints are starting to come out about some specifics of the convention schedule.

First, as we noted yesterday, Terry McAuliffe hinted that Hillary Clinton would speak on Tuesday.

Now, comes some unofficial confirmation as CBS news announces their convention coverage plans:

Based on the preliminary schedules for the conventions, CBS News plans three hours of live coverage in prime time, anchored by Couric, for each convention, including the acceptance speeches: Tuesday, Aug. 26, through Thursday, Aug. 28 (10:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT each night) from each site in Denver and Tuesday, Sept. 2, through Thursday, Sept. 4 (10:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT each night) from St. Paul.

If Clinton speaks on Tuesday, it's likely the Keynote speaker will be on Monday, without broadcast network coverage. Of course, the Keynote speaker is no longer a big event at a political convention. I mean, who can even name the keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic Convention?

With Obama speaking on Thursday, we only have the following major events to be scheduled:

• Presidential nominating speeches and Roll Call. One reporter on a sunday talk show suggested they schedule this for the morning. That's unlikely, but I wonder if the don't schedule it to end at 6:30 EST on Wednesday, so that they have a great convention demonstration celebrating the nomination of Obama just as the network news shows go on the air.
• VP nominating speech. A Roll Call is unlikely.
• VP speech - Wednesday night? I don't think this has ever been done before. Or, the more usual, Thursday night, as a warm-up act. A little research shows the VP speech for the Dems has been given on Wednesday since 1996. It was on Thursday in 1992 and earlier.
  
• U2?
• Bruce?
  

You May Not Have Heard...

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From the New York Daily News:

Retired Army Lt. Col. Allen West thought he'd left behind the specters of Iraq when he decided to run for Congress in Florida. But a recent interview request lead him to suspect he was a target for kidnapping.

West's combat instincts flared a few days ago when his campaign office got a call from a young woman who identified herself as a booker for the Al Jazeera network's English-language channel.

"She told my staff that she wanted to talk about the perceived uptick in violence in Afghanistan," West tells us. "I found that strange, since I haven't been in Afghanistan in eight months. There are a lot of other people better qualified to speak to that subject.

"But my b.s. flag really went up when they said they wanted my address, to pick me up at night. They said they would send a car but wouldn't tell me where it was going.

"I don't know if it was a kidnapping attempt," says West, who is challenging first-term Democratic Rep. Ron Klein in the Sunshine State. "But I am not going to entrust Al Jazeera with my life. I said, ‘Cancel the interview!'"

You can't even make this stuff up.

Union workers at non-union Pepsi Center

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One of the concerns about holding the convention in Denver was that the Pepsi Center was a non-union facility. But the DNC seems to made a significant effort to use union labor at the convention. Here's a list of some of the unions involved:

• IATSE Local 7: The Denver Theatrical Stage Employees Union will handle decorating, display and rigging work, and other tasks it typically performs under contract with the Colorado Convention Center.
• Teamsters Local 17: A Teamsters affiliate will transport some of the heavier freight (requiring forklifts, for instance) to and from the loading docks.
• International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers: Members will be handling some of the wiring and other work.
• Construction Building and Construction Trades Council: Carpenters under this umbrella group will provide labor for contractors and subcontractors involved with transforming the Pepsi Center.
• UniteHere: This union already had a presence, with about 200 members who work at the Aramark concessions throughout the complex. - Rocky Mountain News
  

The balloon question

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The burning question about Thursday night at the Democratic Convention: Will there be a balloon drop after Obama's speech?

An emphasis on environmental friendliness, combined with an outdoor venue, could poke a needle in the traditional balloon drop at the Democratic National Convention this year
...

While acknowledging that balloons are as much a part of political conventions as ballots, Andrea Robinson, the director of Sustainability and Greening for the Denver event, has been using her own compost pile to test the industry claim that the balloons are biodegradable. Meanwhile, managing balloons simply as litter could be a problem, with the convention's climactic fourth day scheduled for Denver's outdoor pro football stadium.

"We've not made a decision yet on balloons," said convention spokesman Damon Young.-Minneapolis/St. Paul Star Tribune.

Of course, one hopes that any balloon drop goes better than it did in 2004:

Clinton at the Convention?

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Terry McAuliffe told Morning Joe that Hillary will likely speak at the convention on Tuesday night.

Last week, Terry told a Virginia audience that Tim Kaine would be Obama's best choice as running mate.

A 9 Point Bounce?

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Is this the bounce we've been waiting for? Start of a trend or outlier?

Online Surveys & Market Research

Convention headaches

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The LA Times pulls varied issues together and decides holding conventions is hard:

Municipal leaders were jubilant when they won the right to hold this year's event. But the convention is raising questions about whether this perennial booster town has bitten off more than it can chew.

The host committee is as much as $10 million short in fundraising, and financial difficulties have forced it to cancel two dozen parties for delegates. Denver officials are scrambling to deal with the logistical challenges of Barack Obama's acceptance speech being held at an outdoor stadium instead of in the arena where the rest of the convention will take place. Even special daisies that the city bred partly to show off for the convention are failing to sprout.
...
Local political leaders and the host committee insist everything is fine, and that any bumps along the way will be overshadowed by the attention showered on the city next month.
...
[Denver Mayor John] Hickenlooper referred to the event as the "blasted convention" and compared it to a summer he spent painting a house for which he was never paid. "If we'd known back then what we know now, we'd never have done it," he said, before quickly adding, "and what an incredible shame that would have been."

Last month the host committee said it was $10 million short of its $40-million target, but it now refuses to discuss fundraising totals.

Given that the Obama campaign increased convention costs by moving the last night to Invesco, I would certainly expect them to help close the money gap.

Sunday with the Senators – Late July Edition

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Alaska – Mark Begich (D) is still besting Ted Stevens (R),and with leaners, has crossed the all important 50% mark, at 52/44.

Remember, Stevens won his last election with 72% of the vote, and has been there longer than a lot of people have been alive (since 1968) – and don’t forget, there’s an indictment coming.

Louisiana – John Kennedy (R) has decided to campaign with David Vitter (R), current junior senator from Louisiana. If you don’t remember Vitter, think back, and think “DC Madam” and the only member of Congress whose phone number showed up on her client roster, and you’re right back with David. He cried, he begged forgiveness. Will it play in Louisiana?

Meanwhile, Mary Landrieu (D) will be attending a fund raiser in her honour chaired by Mike Bloomberg (I). It’s this Tuesday, and tickets start at $1,000.

Kennedy will be pushing “MORE DRILLING” Whether this will play in a week when there came a 12 mile (420,000 gallon) oil spill just off the coast is anybody’s guess. My guess is “no”.



Maine – Susan Collins (R) is still holding a 10 point lead (50/40) over Tom Allen (D). There are some who would say this is really good, but this is actually down from previous polling, showing Collins up by 25%. I don’t know, trend lines and all that.

Minnesota – While the current polls don’t look great for Al Franken (D), he has finally responded to Norm Coleman’s attacks on Franken’s previous career. You may remember that Franken used to be a comic. He said lots of funny things, and some things that some people considered “over the line”, from an “it’s too dirty to be funny” perspective. Here is Franken’s response; the polls over the next several weeks will hold a better idea of how things are playing out there.



North Carolina – It might seem to have been a good week for Liddy Dole (R) since the newest poll has her up 47/38/2 over Kay Hagan (D) and Chris Cole (L) However, that’s down from the 12 point lead she had a week earlier and below the RCP average. Ads will be going up from the DNC soon, and then we’ll have a better idea of how things are going.

Oregon – Don’t say I didn’t warn you. The newest poll shows a dead heat at 46 each for Jeff Merkley (D) and Gordon Smith (R).

Virginia – A bad, bad week for Jim Gilmore (R). . Gilmore has a problem with lies and their ramifications in his quarterly financial disclosure filings.

Protest groups and ACLU back in court next week

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The ongoing debate between convention protest groups and the city of Denver over protest rules continues in federal court next week:

A fenced-in area for demonstrators at the Democratic National Convention amounts to putting the proverbial "soapbox in the town square" inside a "caged pen" on the "outskirts of town."

Or so the American Civil Liberties Union and a host of protest groups plan to argue in federal court next week.

Not so, the City and County of Denver and the U.S. Secret Service plan to assert.

"To be clear, this so-called 'demonstration zone' is not an isolated area to which the city will confine demonstrators," lawyers for Denver argued in a brief filed on the eve of next Tuesday's trial to settle lingering First Amendment issues raised by protest groups and the ACLU.
...
And the recently announced plans to move the last day of the convention across Interstate 25 to Invesco Field at Mile High further complicate the question, as the ACLU and the protest groups expect to raise the same issues there that they did at the Pepsi Center. - Rocky Mountain News

Denver one-ups the Boston Tea Party

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And look what stumbled into the ol' e-mail box, not surprisingly, at 2:00 a.m in the morning. Yes, Maker's Mark is getting in on the action:

As you know, we're card-carrying members of the cocktail party, and we couldn't resist the opportunity to have some fun this political season. So starting this weekend, folks in metro Denver and Minneapolis will find red-white-and-blue wax-dipped bottles in their local liquor stores. These bottles were created to help celebrate the upcoming political conventions in each city. As for the rest of us, no need to fret. We'll have more red, white and blue bottles out this September.

Both 750 and liter sized bottles will be available in each of the wax versions (some with blue on top, others with red on top).

So if you're a Democrat punch-drunk over the thought of victory this year, or a Republican trying to convince someone, anyone, that you've got any kind of plan for America, well, this one's for you.

And for the rest of you good citizens still reeling from a housing crisis, stagnant wages or if you're just one of those people feeling that "the country is on the wrong track," (which is 74% of you as of last week), you'll get a chance to drown your sorrows in September!

Presidential Forecast - 7/25 - Mixed messages

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Obama leads 303-235, even with the our previous forecast. McCain gains in MN, MI and OH, Obama in PA and FL. (Initial post had it as 304-224, but there were errors as noted in the comments).

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. MI moves from Obama to Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	RCP	538 .com	RM	CNN	NBC	.…
Date		7/24.	7/24.	7/25.	7/23.	7/25.	7/25.	7/22.	7/24.	7/9.
Obama-Strong (O)		210	200	197	175	153	231	210	153	168
Obama-Lean (OL)		54	60	49	47	85	42	63	68	42
Tossup (T)		117	107	118	167	137	38	38	128	139
McCain-Lean (ML)		70	98	91	58	64	73	62	64	53
McCain-Strong (M)		87	73	83	91	99	154	165	125	136
Obama Total		264	260	246	222	238	273	273	221	210
McCain Total		157	171	174	149	163	227	227	189	189
Obama Est.		326	321	313	308	302	297	292	284	282
Texas	34	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T
Pennsylvania	21	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	O	OL	OL	T
Ohio	20	T	T	ML	T	T	T	T	T	T
Michigan	17	OL	OL	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Georgia	15	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Indiana	11	T	ML	T	T	T	ML	M	ML	ML
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O
Arizona	10	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Minnesota	10	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	O	T	OL
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	ML	ML	T	M	M	M	M	M
Iowa	7	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T
Oregon	7	O	O	OL	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Mississippi	6	M	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	T	OL	OL	T	T
Alaska	3	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML
Delaware	3	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	O	O	O
Montana	3	T	T	OL	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	M	T	T	ML	ML	ML	M	ML
S. Dakota	3	M	ML	T	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
		Open Left	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	FHQ	RCP	538 .com	RM	CNN	NBC	.…

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Here are the states that span 3 categories.

• Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
• Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
• Minnesota (NEW): 5 at Obama-Strong, 1 at Tossup
  
• Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
  
• New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
  
• North Dakota - 2 at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
• Pennsylvania (NEW): 1 Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
  
• South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
• South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 4 McCain-Strong
  

We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

John McCain's Bad Week

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This video sums up McCain's week (month?) perfectly

Wisconsin Democratic Party ousts McCain backing delegate

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As expected, Debra Bartoshevich will not be traveling to Denver next month.

Bartoshevich vowed to vote for McCain after Obama won the primaries.

Wisconsin Democrats on Friday ousted a delegate to their national convention for saying she would vote for Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain in November.

Embarrassed by a defection in their ranks, the Wisconsin Democratic Party's administrative committee voted 23-0 to strip Debra Bartoshevich of her status as a delegate to the Denver convention next month.

Bartoshevich was elected by party activists as a pledged delegate for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton from the 1st Congressional District in southeastern Wisconsin. But after Clinton dropped out of the race, Bartoshevich told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel she would support McCain over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama. - Strib

Marilyn Nemeth of Racine will take her place in Denver. Nemeth is a Clinton delegate

Convention News

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Not everyone is excited for the convention... Utah congressman Jim Matheson has announced that he won't be making the trip to Denver next month.

Utah's top-ranking Democrat will skip the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Denver next month.

Rep. Jim Matheson tells The Salt Lake Tribune that the event will mostly be pageantry because Barack Obama has effectively secured the party's nomination for president. - Local News 8

Matheson has also skipped the last two conventions.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson may have to miss the convention

A slow moving legislative session could cause Gov. Bill Richardson to skip the Democratic National Convention next month.

Richardson said Thursday he wouldn't attend the presidential nominating convention if the Legislature was still meeting in a special session.

"I'll stay here. This is my priority," Richardson said at a news conference. - Las Cruces Sun-News

While there are a couple possible no-shows from the Democratic side, the Republicans are saying no thanks en masse.

Nine of 12 targeted Republicans running in the most competitive Senate races this fall are either skipping the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., or have not decided whether to attend.

Among those who will not attend are Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is not close to presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is a McCain loyalist. Stevens and Collins will use the convention week to focus on their campaigns.

Also sending regrets is former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado, running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard. - CongressDaily

Springsteen Watch: From the RMN:

Brown told me that (NJ Governor) Corzine has asked Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi to come to the DNC. No word on whether they've accepted the invite.

We've Come a long way... The Colorado Independent has a great article focusing on racial issues during Denver's 1908 Democratic National Convention

A hundred years ago, Denver hosted its first Democratic National Convention, an event that put the city on the national map. But unbeknownst to many convention-goers at the time — and more than likely to attendees at the upcoming DNC — Denver was also at the center of a heated debate among the nation's black political activists, a debate that helped launch the migration of African-American voters from their traditional home in the Republican party to the Democratic party.

And finally... Matt points out this interesting coincidence. The song Please Come to Boston, originally released by Dave Loggins in 1974, mentions 3 cities: Los Angeles, Boston and Denver. The last 3 Democratic National Conventions? Los Angeles, Boston and Denver. One of the first things I learned about Matt is that he has a memory like a steel trap.

Here's Kenny Chesney's version:

Invesco ticket holders have to prove they can get there

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Great article today from the Rocky Mountain News that gives us some more info on tickets.

People who get tickets to see Barack Obama at Invesco Field will be required to show they can get there and plan to attend the event themselves, officials said Thursday.

Jenny Backus, Obama's senior adviser to the convention, said with thousands of people wanting to go, the Obama campaign wants to make sure all tickets get used by the people who requested them.

"When we distribute the tickets, one of the only prerequisites for tickets is — since they're free — is that you have to tell us how you're going to get there," she said. "You need to give us a plan on how you're going to get there and you'll have to check back in with us a couple of times along the way."

If people can't show they will be at Invesco to hear Obama accept the Democratic presidential nomination, their tickets will be cycled back into the pool and redistributed to someone else.

Backus said "when they are coming through the state party offices, we want to make sure people are going to use the tickets, and we have different ways we can check that." But she said it won't be specific — like asking people to provide airline tickets.

She also said the stadium will be mostly filled with locals.

"Rest assured, a great majority of the people in that stadium will be from Colorado and Denver and the surrounding region — bordering states in the mountain region," she said.

The DNCC will be announcing the ticket distribution early next week.

One month to go...

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When I started working on DemConWatch in early December it seemed like August would never come. Now we're one month away from the opening gavel of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado.

We've built up a great team with the additions of DocJess and Mr. Super and will continue to bring you all the latest news on the convention and the upcoming elections.

What we're working on:

• DCW Convention Calendar - The most comprehensive calendar of Democratic National Convention events from official meetings to concerts to protests.
• Presidential Forecast - A compilation of various sources' projections which gives you a big picture of where the Presidential election stands
• Senate Forecast - A compilation of various sources' projections which gives you a big picture of where the Senate elections stands
• House Forecast - A compilation of various sources' projections which gives you a big picture of where the Senate elections stands

Another thing we're excited to bring you is posts by delegates preparing for the convention. We'll follow them all the way up to and during the convention.

Friday morning graphic blogging with Ed Stein of the Rocky Mountain News

WE'VE MOVED! DemConWatch is now at http://www.demconwatchblog.com

(Click image for larger view)

This is the fourth in Ed Stein's graphic blog series leading up to the convention.

House Forecast - July 24

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DCW House Forecast: 242.7 (+6.7) [was 242.3 (+6.3)]. SSP had the largest set of changes since the last House Forecast, moving 10 seats in the Democratic direction, (and 1 seat in the Republican direction). The other highlight was the addition of a seat to the chart for the first time - FL-25, which SSP moved from R to RL. The addition of Republican seats and the removal of Democratic seats will further shift the playing field into red territory, and increase the potential for larger Democratic gains. (Six Democratic seats are barely hanging on to the chart).

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Rep. first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

Update: And, of course, right after we post, CQPolitics updates 14 seats, 12 in the Democrats direction. A quick glance says CQ's estimate will go up to 7.1, and knock IL-8 and NY-19 off the board!

DCW House Forecast
State	Current	Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	CQ	Rothenberg	....
Date		7/24	7/22	7/14	7/18	7/4
Dem		7	8	10	3	6
Dem-Lean		16	21	16	24	15
Tossup		27	12	18	13	25
Rep-Lean		10	18	10	21	8
Rep		7	8	13	6	13
Dem-Prediction		35.3	34.4	33.8	32.9	32.1
Dem (not shown)		209	209	209	209	209
House Projection		244.3	243.4	242.8	241.9	241.1
Dem-Gain		8.3	7.4	6.8	5.9	5.1
IL 11 (Open)	R	DL	T	D	D	DL
NY 13 (Open)	R	DL	DL	D	D	T
NY 25 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
VA 11 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	DL	T
AK AL (Young)	R	T	T	T	T	T
MN 3 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NJ 3 (Open)	R	T	DL	T	RL	T
NJ 7 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NM 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 15 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
Oh 16 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NC 8 (Hayes)	R	T	RL	T	T	T
NY 26 (Open)	R	T	T	T	RL	T
WA 8 (Reichert)	R	T	T	RL	T	T
CO 4 (Musgrave)	R	T	RL	T	RL	T
LA 4 (Open)	R	T	RL	T	RL	T
IL 10 (Kirk)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	T
MI 7 (Wahlberg)	R	T	RL	T	RL	RL
NY 29 (Kuhl)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	T
CT 4 (Shays)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
NV 3 (Porter)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
OH 1 (Chabot)	R	T	RL	RL	RL	RL
AL 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	R
FL 24 (Feeney)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
MO 6 (Graves)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL
OH 2 (Schmidt)	R	R	RL	RL	RL	RL
NM 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
FL 13 (Buchanan)	R	R	R	RL	RL	R
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
PA 3 (English)	R	RL	R	R	RL	R
VA 2 (Drake)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R
CA 4 (Open)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)	R	R	RL	R	R	R
FL 8 (Keller)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
MO 9 (Open)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
PA 6 (Gerlach)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
WV 2 (Moore Capito)	R	RL	R	R	R	R
WY AL (Cubin)	R	R	R	R	RL	R
LA 6 (Cazayoux)	D	T	T	T	T	T
AL 5 (Open)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
KS 2 (Boyda)	D	T	DL	T	T	T
TX 22 (Lampson)	D	T	T	T	DL	T
FL 16 (Mahoney)	D	DL	DL	T	T	T
CA 11 (McNerney)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
PA 10 (Carney)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	T
GA 8 (Marshall)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	T
MS 1 (Childers)	D	T	DL	DL	DL	DL
OR 5 (Open)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 8 (Giffords)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IN 9 (Hill)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
PA 4 (Altmire)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
WI 8 (Kagen)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IL 14 (Foster)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	D
PA 11 (Kanjorski)	D	DL	D	D	DL	DL
MN 1 (Walz)	D	D	D	D	DL	DL
CT 5 (Murphy)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
GA 12 (Barrow)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
IL 8 (Bean)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
KS 3 (Moore)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
NY 19 (Hall)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
TX 23 (Rodriguez)	D	D	D	D	DL	D
		Cook	SSP	Crystal Ball	CQ	Rothenberg	....

The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Obama's Berlin Speech

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In case you missed it... here is Obama's speech from Berlin.

Thank you to the citizens of Berlin and to the people of Germany. Let me thank Chancellor Merkel and Foreign Minister Steinmeier for welcoming me earlier today. Thank you Mayor Wowereit, the Berlin Senate, the police, and most of all thank you for this welcome.

I come to Berlin as so many of my countrymen have come before. Tonight, I speak to you not as a candidate for President, but as a citizen – a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world.

I know that I don’t look like the Americans who’ve previously spoken in this great city. The journey that led me here is improbable. My mother was born in the heartland of America, but my father grew up herding goats in Kenya. His father – my grandfather – was a cook, a domestic servant to the British.

At the height of the Cold War, my father decided, like so many others in the forgotten corners of the world, that his yearning – his dream – required the freedom and opportunity promised by the West. And so he wrote letter after letter to universities all across America until somebody, somewhere answered his prayer for a better life.

That is why I’m here. And you are here because you too know that yearning. This city, of all cities, knows the dream of freedom. And you know that the only reason we stand here tonight is because men and women from both of our nations came together to work, and struggle, and sacrifice for that better life.

Ours is a partnership that truly began sixty years ago this summer, on the day when the first American plane touched down at Templehof.

On that day, much of this continent still lay in ruin. The rubble of this city had yet to be built into a wall. The Soviet shadow had swept across Eastern Europe, while in the West, America, Britain, and France took stock of their losses, and pondered how the world might be remade.

This is where the two sides met. And on the twenty-fourth of June, 1948, the Communists chose to blockade the western part of the city. They cut off food and supplies to more than two million Germans in an effort to extinguish the last flame of freedom in Berlin.

The size of our forces was no match for the much larger Soviet Army. And yet retreat would have allowed Communism to march across Europe. Where the last war had ended, another World War could have easily begun. All that stood in the way was Berlin.

And that’s when the airlift began – when the largest and most unlikely rescue in history brought food and hope to the people of this city.

The odds were stacked against success. In the winter, a heavy fog filled the sky above, and many planes were forced to turn back without dropping off the needed supplies. The streets where we stand were filled with hungry families who had no comfort from the cold.

But in the darkest hours, the people of Berlin kept the flame of hope burning. The people of Berlin refused to give up. And on one fall day, hundreds of thousands of Berliners came here, to the Tiergarten, and heard the city’s mayor implore the world not to give up on freedom. “There is only one possibility,” he said. “For us to stand together united until this battle is won…The people of Berlin have spoken. We have done our duty, and we will keep on doing our duty. People of the world: now do your duty…People of the world, look at Berlin!”

People of the world – look at Berlin!

Look at Berlin, where Germans and Americans learned to work together and trust each other less than three years after facing each other on the field of battle.

Look at Berlin, where the determination of a people met the generosity of the Marshall Plan and created a German miracle; where a victory over tyranny gave rise to NATO, the greatest alliance ever formed to defend our common security.

Look at Berlin, where the bullet holes in the buildings and the somber stones and pillars near the Brandenburg Gate insist that we never forget our common humanity.

People of the world – look at Berlin, where a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one.

Sixty years after the airlift, we are called upon again. History has led us to a new crossroad, with new promise and new peril. When you, the German people, tore down that wall – a wall that divided East and West; freedom and tyranny; fear and hope – walls came tumbling down around the world. From Kiev to Cape Town, prison camps were closed, and the doors of democracy were opened. Markets opened too, and the spread of information and technology reduced barriers to opportunity and prosperity. While the 20th century taught us that we share a common destiny, the 21st has revealed a world more intertwined than at any time in human history.

The fall of the Berlin Wall brought new hope. But that very closeness has given rise to new dangers – dangers that cannot be contained within the borders of a country or by the distance of an ocean.

The terrorists of September 11th plotted in Hamburg and trained in Kandahar and Karachi before killing thousands from all over the globe on American soil.

As we speak, cars in Boston and factories in Beijing are melting the ice caps in the Arctic, shrinking coastlines in the Atlantic, and bringing drought to farms from Kansas to Kenya.

Poorly secured nuclear material in the former Soviet Union, or secrets from a scientist in Pakistan could help build a bomb that detonates in Paris. The poppies in Afghanistan become the heroin in Berlin. The poverty and violence in Somalia breeds the terror of tomorrow. The genocide in Darfur shames the conscience of us all.

In this new world, such dangerous currents have swept along faster than our efforts to contain them. That is why we cannot afford to be divided. No one nation, no matter how large or powerful, can defeat such challenges alone. None of us can deny these threats, or escape responsibility in meeting them. Yet, in the absence of Soviet tanks and a terrible wall, it has become easy to forget this truth. And if we’re honest with each other, we know that sometimes, on both sides of the Atlantic, we have drifted apart, and forgotten our shared destiny.

In Europe, the view that America is part of what has gone wrong in our world, rather than a force to help make it right, has become all too common. In America, there are voices that deride and deny the importance of Europe’s role in our security and our future. Both views miss the truth – that Europeans today are bearing new burdens and taking more responsibility in critical parts of the world; and that just as American bases built in the last century still help to defend the security of this continent, so does our country still sacrifice greatly for freedom around the globe.

Yes, there have been differences between America and Europe. No doubt, there will be differences in the future. But the burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together. A change of leadership in Washington will not lift this burden. In this new century, Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more – not less. Partnership and cooperation among nations is not a choice; it is the one way, the only way, to protect our common security and advance our common humanity.

That is why the greatest danger of all is to allow new walls to divide us from one another.

The walls between old allies on either side of the Atlantic cannot stand. The walls between the countries with the most and those with the least cannot stand. The walls between races and tribes; natives and immigrants; Christian and Muslim and Jew cannot stand. These now are the walls we must tear down.

We know they have fallen before. After centuries of strife, the people of Europe have formed a Union of promise and prosperity. Here, at the base of a column built to mark victory in war, we meet in the center of a Europe at peace. Not only have walls come down in Berlin, but they have come down in Belfast, where Protestant and Catholic found a way to live together; in the Balkans, where our Atlantic alliance ended wars and brought savage war criminals to justice; and in South Africa, where the struggle of a courageous people defeated apartheid.

So history reminds us that walls can be torn down. But the task is never easy. True partnership and true progress requires constant work and sustained sacrifice. They require sharing the burdens of development and diplomacy; of progress and peace. They require allies who will listen to each other, learn from each other and, most of all, trust each other.

That is why America cannot turn inward. That is why Europe cannot turn inward. America has no better partner than Europe. Now is the time to build new bridges across the globe as strong as the one that bound us across the Atlantic. Now is the time to join together, through constant cooperation, strong institutions, shared sacrifice, and a global commitment to progress, to meet the challenges of the 21st century. It was this spirit that led airlift planes to appear in the sky above our heads, and people to assemble where we stand today. And this is the moment when our nations – and all nations – must summon that spirit anew.

This is the moment when we must defeat terror and dry up the well of extremism that supports it. This threat is real and we cannot shrink from our responsibility to combat it. If we could create NATO to face down the Soviet Union, we can join in a new and global partnership to dismantle the networks that have struck in Madrid and Amman; in London and Bali; in Washington and New York. If we could win a battle of ideas against the communists, we can stand with the vast majority of Muslims who reject the extremism that leads to hate instead of hope.

This is the moment when we must renew our resolve to rout the terrorists who threaten our security in Afghanistan, and the traffickers who sell drugs on your streets. No one welcomes war. I recognize the enormous difficulties in Afghanistan. But my country and yours have a stake in seeing that NATO’s first mission beyond Europe’s borders is a success. For the people of Afghanistan, and for our shared security, the work must be done. America cannot do this alone. The Afghan people need our troops and your troops; our support and your support to defeat the Taliban and al Qaeda, to develop their economy, and to help them rebuild their nation. We have too much at stake to turn back now.

This is the moment when we must renew the goal of a world without nuclear weapons. The two superpowers that faced each other across the wall of this city came too close too often to destroying all we have built and all that we love. With that wall gone, we need not stand idly by and watch the further spread of the deadly atom. It is time to secure all loose nuclear materials; to stop the spread of nuclear weapons; and to reduce the arsenals from another era. This is the moment to begin the work of seeking the peace of a world without nuclear weapons.

This is the moment when every nation in Europe must have the chance to choose its own tomorrow free from the shadows of yesterday. In this century, we need a strong European Union that deepens the security and prosperity of this continent, while extending a hand abroad. In this century – in this city of all cities – we must reject the Cold War mind-set of the past, and resolve to work with Russia when we can, to stand up for our values when we must, and to seek a partnership that extends across this entire continent.

This is the moment when we must build on the wealth that open markets have created, and share its benefits more equitably. Trade has been a cornerstone of our growth and global development. But we will not be able to sustain this growth if it favors the few, and not the many. Together, we must forge trade that truly rewards the work that creates wealth, with meaningful p