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There are 435 House races this year, and the vast majority of them are “gimmes”. That is, we already know, with 99% certainty, who is going to win in 345 races. Bear in mind that the Congressional primary process has not ended, and you can never count on situations like the NY-13th. There are primaries scheduled through September, and potential run-offs later than that. So something odd could happen.
We’re going to cover those races we assume to be competitive. Before we do, please note the following states have no competitive races, and all seats in all districts are safely in Democratic hands: Hawaii, Massachusetts, North Dakota, South Dakota and Vermont. Other states with no presumed movement include Iowa (3D – 2R), Tennessee (5D – 4R), and finally on the Republican side, Delaware (R1) and Nebraska (3R).
I’m starting today with California, because when I first posted about the House races, I received more mail about those races than any others. (Hat tip to Ralph, Joe, Marc, Steve and Stanley.) The map is from 2004. The only party shift in 2006 was the 11th, which switched to Democratic. (Just east of the San Francisco Bay area).
There are 53 House Districts in California, the largest number in the country. Of these, 33 are safely Democratic, and 18 will be held by the Republicans. This leaves the 4th (currently R) and the 11th (D).
In the 4th, we have the incumbent, John Doolittle, who decided against running for a 10th term back in January. He had only garnered 49% of the vote against Charlie Brown in 2006, who received 46%, and who is again this year the Democratic candidate. Doolittle decided against running again because of his close relationship with Jack Abramoff. The initial challenge to Charlie Brown came from Republicans Doug Ose and Tom McClintock, the former being far more moderate than the latter. In match-up polls the night before the June 3rd primary, Brown was leading Ose 38/34 and McClintock 42/40. McClintock won the primary 53-39. Brown has a great money advantage, with almost $500,000 cash on hand (mid-May) and practically no debt. McClintock has under $100,000, and debt greater than his cash on hand.
This will be one of those interesting races where we will see how a far-right conservative does in California. While a lot of the land area of California is red, it’s a moderate red (think the Guvernator).
Over in the 11th, there is a better chance that the district will stay blue than that the 4th will remain red. Jerry McNerney captured this seat in 2006 with 53% of the vote, having lost the race in 2004 with only 39% of the vote. Competition on the Republican side is Dean Andal. McNerney leads the money race with over $1.1 million to Andal’s half a million. In addition, McNerney is an incumbent. Plus, he’s got a good voting record, hardly ever misses votes, and is a PhD engineer.
And finally, Andal may end up indicted for violations of California’s open government laws.
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Benjamin · 871 weeks ago
And the Gubernator is actually the very good example of that. Most people in the rest of the country have no idea but Schwarzenegger is HATED by the Republican base here because he is considered too moderate. He has ZERO traction with Republican members of the State House and Senate anymore. And he is not even that popular with the rest of the electorate (40% approval). The only reason he won the governorship, besides his name recognition, is the fact he was able to bypass the primaries thanks to the recall. Otherwise he would never have gone through. The reason Republicans keep losing statewide races is because their base is VERY conservative here and the moderates that would be electable statewide end up losing the primaries (see Richard Riordan).
Heck. Tom McClintock was the nominee for Lt Governor in 2006 and ran in the recall and came up third. So be careful of not assuming that California blue hue means anything in terms of the type of Republicans you find here.
They are as red as you will find in some of the most conservative parts of the country. Problem for them is that they are demographically overwhelmed statewide by a sea of light blue voters and pockets of very populated deep blue voters.
Peter Zenger · 871 weeks ago
I wouldn't count Jim Esch out in the NE-02. The district is getting tired of Lee Terry, and with Obama on the top of the ticket the large democratic african american population of north Omaha will be at the polls in force. This could be the year for Terry to experience defeat.
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
What I know is that Terry won by almost 10 points 2 years ago, and has a huge war chest. Esch has already contributed $5k to his own campaign, and even though he won't completely self-fund, it's usually not a winning situation.
Perhaps there may be something to the Obama coattails, and will keep my eyes open for good news on the NE-2 race.