Sunday, July 06, 2008

Framing the House - New York

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

When people think “New York”, they think “True Blue”, but as you can see from the map, we’ve got a little way to go. Below is a list of the current conditions:

NY-01: Tim Bishop – SAFE

NY-02: Steve Israel -- SAFE

NY-03: Pete King -- SAFE

NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy -- SAFE

NY-05: Gary Ackerman – SAFE

NY-06: Gregory Meeks -- SAFE

NY-07: Joseph Crowley – SAFE

NY-08: Jerrold Nadler – SAFE

NY-09: Anthony Weiner – SAFE

NY-10: Edolphus Towns – SAFE

NY-11: Yvette Clarke – SAFE

NY-12: Nydia Velazquez – SAFE

NY-13: Vito Fossella (retiring) v. currently unknown opponent – INCREDIBLY likely pick-up

NY-14: Carolyn Maloney – SAFE

NY-15: Charlie Rangel – SAFE

NY-16: Jose Serrano – SAFE

NY-17: Eliot Engel – SAFE

NY-18: Nita Lowey – SAFE

NY-19: John Hall – SAFE

NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand vs. 3 self-funders

NY-21: Michael McNulty (retiring) – SAFE

NY-22: Maurice Hinchey – SAFE

NY-23: John McHugh -- SAFE

NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna

NY-25: Jim Walsh (retiring) race will be Dan Maffei (D) vs. unknown Republican

NY-26: Tom Reynolds (retiring) – complete toss-up due to lack of known candidates

NY-27: Brian Higgins -- SAFE

NY-28: Louise Slaughter – SAFE

NY-29: Randy Kuhl vs. Eric Massa

This is not the year that New York will attain a 100% Democratic delegation since the 3rd and 23rd as such safe Republican seats. Still, 27 out of 29 would not be a bad thing from the Democratic perspective, and it is entirely possible. Remember as we go through this that the filing date for the NY Congressional primary will be 17 July, and the primary will be held on 9 September. Therefore, in a couple weeks there may well be some people running unopposed. Once the filings have occurred, the information will be updated.

And so, numerically by district, we first have Vito Fossella and chances are looking slim for a viable candidate to run against him.

The NY-20th is thought by the professionals to be a Democratic Lean, but it seems unlikely that Gillibrand won’t hold her seat. Her four potential challengers are all self-funding to some degree. They are: Sandy Treadwell (self-funding at 56%), choice of the local Republicans, Richard Wager (40%), Michael Rocque (4%) and John Wallace (94%). Treadwell is the likely candidate, and there will be a problem, since he doesn’t live in the district. Small point, sure, but that “legal residency” thing is pretty important in one’s ability to represent one’s geographic constituents.

Despite McNulty’s retirement, and a number of both Democratic and Republican candidates for the primary, the NY-21 seat will stay safely Democratic.

Over in the NY-24, Michael Arcuri won by 9 points in 2006, and while he has a supposed candidate in Richard Hanna, Hanna has made no financial filings. Hanna, however, has spent some money on advertising, but that has triggered an FEC complaint.

Jim Walsh is retiring from the NY-25th, and Dan Maffei (D) will run unopposed in the Democratic Primary, while 5 Republicans will be running on the other side. Only one of them has filed any financial forms, all dwarfed by Maffei’s close to $700,000.

In NY-26, we also have a retiring Republican, and a bunch of competitors. There is conflicting information in the sources I use, so I’ll have full data out after the 17th when all the primary and quarterlies are in.

Finally, we have NY-29, where there will be a rematch of 2006, where Kuhl(R) beat Massa(D) by 3 points. However, this year, Massa is far better funded, and his position as retired Navy will be more important. Netroots is much stronger in 2008 than it was in 2006 so I expect that info about Kuhl drinking and pulling a shotgun on his wife will get MUCH better play this year when it happens again.

For those of you who think that John Hall is in trouble this year, and that it’s a contested race, well, remember, he was part of “Still the One”, and his financials ROCK!