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When people think “New York”, they think “True Blue”, but as you can see from the map, we’ve got a little way to go. Below is a list of the current conditions:
NY-01: Tim Bishop – SAFE
NY-02: Steve Israel -- SAFE
NY-03: Pete King -- SAFE
NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy -- SAFE
NY-05: Gary Ackerman – SAFE
NY-06: Gregory Meeks -- SAFE
NY-07: Joseph Crowley – SAFE
NY-08: Jerrold Nadler – SAFE
NY-09: Anthony Weiner – SAFE
NY-10: Edolphus Towns – SAFE
NY-11: Yvette Clarke – SAFE
NY-12: Nydia Velazquez – SAFE
NY-13: Vito Fossella (retiring) v. currently unknown opponent – INCREDIBLY likely pick-up
NY-14: Carolyn Maloney – SAFE
NY-15: Charlie Rangel – SAFE
NY-16: Jose Serrano – SAFE
NY-17: Eliot Engel – SAFE
NY-18: Nita Lowey – SAFE
NY-19: John Hall – SAFE
NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand vs. 3 self-funders
NY-21: Michael McNulty (retiring) – SAFE
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey – SAFE
NY-23: John McHugh -- SAFE
NY-24: Michael Arcuri vs. Richard Hanna
NY-25: Jim Walsh (retiring) race will be Dan Maffei (D) vs. unknown Republican
NY-26: Tom Reynolds (retiring) – complete toss-up due to lack of known candidates
NY-27: Brian Higgins -- SAFE
NY-28: Louise Slaughter – SAFE
NY-29: Randy Kuhl vs. Eric Massa
This is not the year that New York will attain a 100% Democratic delegation since the 3rd and 23rd as such safe Republican seats. Still, 27 out of 29 would not be a bad thing from the Democratic perspective, and it is entirely possible. Remember as we go through this that the filing date for the NY Congressional primary will be 17 July, and the primary will be held on 9 September. Therefore, in a couple weeks there may well be some people running unopposed. Once the filings have occurred, the information will be updated.
And so, numerically by district, we first have Vito Fossella and chances are looking slim for a viable candidate to run against him.
The NY-20th is thought by the professionals to be a Democratic Lean, but it seems unlikely that Gillibrand won’t hold her seat. Her four potential challengers are all self-funding to some degree. They are: Sandy Treadwell (self-funding at 56%), choice of the local Republicans, Richard Wager (40%), Michael Rocque (4%) and John Wallace (94%). Treadwell is the likely candidate, and there will be a problem, since he doesn’t live in the district. Small point, sure, but that “legal residency” thing is pretty important in one’s ability to represent one’s geographic constituents.
Despite McNulty’s retirement, and a number of both Democratic and Republican candidates for the primary, the NY-21 seat will stay safely Democratic.
Over in the NY-24, Michael Arcuri won by 9 points in 2006, and while he has a supposed candidate in Richard Hanna, Hanna has made no financial filings. Hanna, however, has spent some money on advertising, but that has triggered an FEC complaint.
Jim Walsh is retiring from the NY-25th, and Dan Maffei (D) will run unopposed in the Democratic Primary, while 5 Republicans will be running on the other side. Only one of them has filed any financial forms, all dwarfed by Maffei’s close to $700,000.
In NY-26, we also have a retiring Republican, and a bunch of competitors. There is conflicting information in the sources I use, so I’ll have full data out after the 17th when all the primary and quarterlies are in.
Finally, we have NY-29, where there will be a rematch of 2006, where Kuhl(R) beat Massa(D) by 3 points. However, this year, Massa is far better funded, and his position as retired Navy will be more important. Netroots is much stronger in 2008 than it was in 2006 so I expect that info about Kuhl drinking and pulling a shotgun on his wife will get MUCH better play this year when it happens again.
For those of you who think that John Hall is in trouble this year, and that it’s a contested race, well, remember, he was part of “Still the One”, and his financials ROCK!