House Forecast - 9/30 - Almost at double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.8 (+9.8) [was 245.1 (+9.1)]. Fifteen districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with four districts moving the other way. Note that in 2006, Cook and CQ moved 10 and 13 seats, respectively, between 10/1 and election day, (and underestimated the final numbers by 6 seats), so there could still be plenty of movement to come.

One Republican seat, KY-2, was added to the chart, with SSP and Rothenberg both moving it to Rep-Lean. And one Dem seat, GA-12, was moved off the list, as it is now unanimous Dem-Strong.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State	Current	SSP	Cook	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....
Date		9/29	9/25	9/24	9/30	9/29
Dem		5	7	5	10	1
Dem-Lean		20	13	18	6	23
Tossup		18	27	19	31	15
Rep-Lean		19	14	18	11	22
Rep		6	7	8	10	7
Dem-Prediction		33.8	33.7	32.5	32.5	31.3
Dem (not shown)		213	213	213	213	213
House Projection		246.8	246.7	245.5	245.5	244.3
Dem-Gain		10.8	10.7	9.5	9.5	8.3
NY 13 (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D
NY 25 (Open)	R	D	D	DL	D	DL
VA 11 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 1 (Open)	R	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
AK AL (Young)	R	T	T	DL	D	DL
IL 11 (Open)	R	T	DL	DL	T	DL
NJ 3 (Open)	R	DL	T	T	T	T
CT 4 (Shays)	R	T	T	T	T	T
MN 3 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NJ 7 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NM 1 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
NV 3 (Porter)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 15 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
OH 16 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	T
WA 8 (Reichert)	R	T	T	T	T	T
CO 4 (Musgrave)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
LA 4 (Open)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
MI 7 (Wahlberg)	R	T	T	T	T	RL
AL 2 (Open)	R	T	T	T	RL	RL
FL 24 (Feeney)	R	T	T	RL	T	RL
NC 8 (Hayes)	R	RL	T	RL	T	T
NY 29 (Kuhl)	R	RL	T	RL	T	RL
FL 8 (Keller)	R	RL	T	R	T	RL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
NM 2 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
NY 26 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	T	RL
OH 1 (Chabot)	R	RL	T	RL	RL	RL
IL 10 (Kirk)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MO 6 (Graves)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
PA 3 (English)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL
MO 9 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	RL
OH 2 (Schmidt)	R	RL	R	RL	RL	RL
VA 2 (Drake)	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	R
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	R
ID 1 (Sali)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
MD 1 (Open)	R	RL	RL	RL	R	R
NV 2 (Heller)	R	R	RL	RL	R	RL
CA 4 (Open)	R	RL	R	R	R	RL
FL 13 (Buchanan)	R	R	R	RL	R	RL
KY 2 (Open)	R	RL	R	R	RL	R
NE 2 (Terry)	R	R	RL	R	R	R
WV 2 (Moore Capito)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
WY AL (Open)	R	R	R	R	R	RL
TX 22 (Lampson)	D	T	T	T	RL	T
LA 6 (Cazayoux)	D	T	T	T	T	T
AL 5 (Open)	D	DL	T	T	T	T
KS 2 (Boyda)	D	DL	T	T	T	T
PA 11 (Kanjorski)	D	T	T	T	T	DL
FL 16 (Mahoney)	D	DL	DL	T	T	T
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)	D	DL	T	DL	T	DL
PA 10 (Carney)	D	DL	T	DL	T	DL
CA 11 (McNerney)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
GA 8 (Marshall)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
WI 8 (Kagen)	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL
MS 1 (Childers)	D	DL	T	DL	D	DL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
AZ 8 (Giffords)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
PA 4 (Altmire)	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
IL 14 (Foster)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
IN 9 (Hill)	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)	D	DL	D	DL	D	DL
OR 5 (Open)	D	DL	D	D	DL	DL
CT 5 (Murphy)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
MN 1 (Walz)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)	D	D	D	D	D	DL
		SSP	Cook	Crystal Ball	Roth	CQ	....

Click for Notes and Graph


The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Personal Confusion

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Talking Points Memo has a clip from Fox News this morning which TPM claims shows McShame willing to suspend his campaign again. I watched the clip, and didn't quite hear that, but maybe I'm confused.

The thing that interested me was HOW MUCH McCain sounded like Sarah Palin.

Geography

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I take a lot of grief from people who disagree with me that all Americans should be able to name all fifty states and their capitols. But I think it matters that people know what's where.

You may remember that John McShame thought that Spain was in Latin America. His geographic knowledge knows NO BOUNDS as he thinks that Venezuela is in the Middle East.

Today is the FEC's Q3 Contribution Deadline

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Puttin' out a yard sign and bloggin' on the Internets are nice - but they are not enough.

To truly change our country, to have elected officials who stand up for what we believe in, our candidates need your help making their case to the voters. Either by volunteering your time to make phone calls or knock on doors, or - at the minimum - by making a financial contribution to the campaign.

For a list of candidates who need help, I recommend checking the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red-to-Blue web page. This is a program which seeks to support Democrats who are running to turn red districts blue. You can find the DCCC link here.

For other than federal candidates, you can also visit the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or the web page of this great guy running for president.

I'll also make a personal plug for my friend Bev Perdue who is in a tough race to retain a Democratic Governor's seat in North Carolina. This is a state which hasn't elected a Republican Governor but twice in the past 100 years, but it hasn't been easy, either. Let's remind the voters that real Carolina Blue is the Democratic kind.

Yes, it's a rough economy - but it doesn't take much to make a big difference. You can donate anywhere from $1 on up to the legally allowed limit. I have given to a number of candidates already, will give a little bit more today and I encourage others to do the same.

In an age of Internet fundraising, even modest contributions make a big difference as evidenced by the millions of small contributions given to the campaign of Barack Obama.

Got a favorite candidate that you'd like others to consider contributing to today? Leave a message and a link to the candidate page in the comments section!

UPDATE: The deadline is today, September 30th and you have until midnight tonight (in your time zone) to make a contribution.

Polling Update - September 30th

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Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Yesterday: Obama 50, McCain 45).
Hotline: Obama 47, McCain 41 (Yesterday: Obama 47, McCain 42).
Daily Kos: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Yesterday: Obama 51, McCain 42).
Gallup: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Yesterday: Obama 50, McCain 42).

Four poll average: Obama 49.5, McCain 42.5 (Obama 49.5, McCain 42.75).

Here's the overall national trend from Pollster.com in a cool new embeddable format.

Barack Obama's speech in Reno, NV

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This is no longer just a Wall Street crisis – it’s an American crisis, and it’s the American economy that needs this rescue plan. I understand why people would be skeptical when this President asks for a blank check to solve a problem. I’ve spent most of my time in Washington being skeptical of this Administration, and this time was no different. That’s why over a week ago, I demanded that this plan include specific proposals to protect American taxpayer – protections that the Administration eventually agreed to, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

First, I said we needed an independent board to provide oversight and accountability for how and where this money is spent at every step of the way.

Second, I said that we cannot help banks on Wall Street without helping the millions of innocent homeowners who are struggling to stay in their homes. They deserve a plan too.

Third, I said that I would not allow this plan to become a welfare program for the Wall Street executives whose greed and irresponsibility got us into this mess.

And finally, I said that if American taxpayers are financing this solution, then you should be treated like investors – you should get every penny of your tax dollars back once this economy recovers.

You can read the full speech here.

Don't let this happen

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Scary huh?

You can get all the voter information you need at Vote For Change

Volunteer for the Obama campaign at your local campaign office or on Neighbor to Neighbor.

Obama campaign releases new ad on fixing the economy

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Today, the Obama-Biden campaign released a new two minute TV ad, Same Path, which includes Senator Obama telling America he knows we can steer ourselves out of this crisis, but not by driving down the very same path and how that’s what this election’s all about.

In the ad, Obama details how his plan to jump-start our economy, create millions of jobs, and bring back our Main Streets all across America differs with John McCain’s plan to continue the same failed policies. Obama specifically lays out how his tax plan which offers three times as much tax relief to the middle class and cuts taxes for small and startup businesses differs from McCain’s which will continue giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies and extends the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest.

Headline of the Morning

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McCain at dead end as House rejects bailout plan - AP

Meanwhile, Obama announced this morning:

The majority of American families should rest assured that the deposits they have in our banks are safe. Thanks to measures put in place during the Great Depression, deposits of up to $100,000 are guaranteed by the federal government.

While that guarantee is more than adequate for most families, it is insufficient for many small businesses that maintain bank accounts to meet their payroll, buy their supplies, and invest in expanding and creating jobs. The current insurance limit of $100,000 was set 28 years ago and has not been adjusted for inflation.

That is why today, I am proposing that we also raise the FDIC limit to $250,000 as part of the economic rescue package – a step that would boost small businesses, make our banking system more secure, and help restore public confidence in our financial system.

Intersection

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It is Rosh Hashanah, Jewish New Years. Last night, in addition to synagogue services there was dinner conversation, and parking lot conversation. Let's just say that I spoke with some people who do not exactly share my personal political leanings.

I read all the comments everyone makes. You write it, I read it. And I know a lot of you think it was an okay thing that the bailout failed. I also know, because I review the DCW poll responses, that a lot of you didn't want to call your House Reps and Senators ahead of the vote.

So here's my intersection: if you read DCW, you're interested in polling numbers. And it was polling numbers, and consitutent calls (which are, a self-poll in a certain way), that made a lot of the people who voted against the bailout do so. What voters THOUGHT and SAID caused the vote to fail. What YOU said (or didn't say) to your Rep affected the outcome of the vote. Polls matter, calls/e-mails to reps matter.

Regular people did not understand what was involved. The government did a crappy job of explaining the ramifications of the failure of Wall Street (ostensibly because they didn't want to scare people), and the Reps, all of whom up for reelection in 35 days, responded to their constituencies. They do not want to lose their jobs.

If you have a Democratic rep, you have an opportunity to call them now, and say: rewrite the bill, leave in the provisions that are there, and ADD consumer/taxpayer/homeowner protections. Make the bill MORE left wing, and then if the caucus is whipped properly, no Republican votes are necessary. If you have Republican Rep, you have an opportunity to call and say "I was wrong - I want whatever bailout the Democrats put forward." This will work with everyone who is not a far right wingnut.

If you have a wingnut Rep, call and say "You preach open markets, and true capitalism; the markets are screaming for help." The young wingnuts don't remember BEING a Rockefeller Republican, but that IS what that party used to be.

Yesterday, the value of investments went down by $1.3 TRILLION dollars. That's your retirement, your kid's college fund, your savings, your investments. That is access to mortgages, car loans, student loans, and the ability of business to procure raw materials, goods, services, and eventually, to fund your paycheck. Banks were nationalized in Europe, one banker has already thrown himself in front of a train. And if you think this can't get worse, you're wrong.

Point is -- CALL or WRITE and tell them to pass a revised bailout. Most all the House is home for Rosh Hashanah, and will be back in DC on Thursday. Phone lines are open, operators are waiting for your call. Reps know that if you call, you vote, and they want you in 35 days.

I'll be back tonight to read and answer your comments -- if you want to be angry at my position, so be it, it won't be the first time. But PLEASE, be a citizen, get involved. Help save our country - the business of government is more than just voting on election day.

Presidential Forecast - 9/29 - 5 weeks to go

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After the first debate, after the failed bailout, before the VP debate, Obama increases his projection by 8 EVs, and now leads 294-244 with major movement in many swing states. Of interest is the very low number of McCain-Lean states. (On the map only MO and WV qualify). McCain's consolidated his base, moving some marginal red states all the way to Strong. But at the same time, the light red swing states of FL, OH and NC made major movement into the Tossup category.

NH/NV/OH/VA all qualify as tipping point states. We should note that the tipping point state has always been a pure or mostly pure Tossup, which means that a small move towards McCain could still give him a road to victory.

Map changes: Towards Obama: IN, NC: ML->T.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

We have made a small change in the algorithms. Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. This will prevent the isolated movement of a TX or NY to Lean in 1 projection from affecting the overall number. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: ME (Obama), MT, AR, GA, LA, ND (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, PA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	NBC	EVs
Date		9/29.	9/24.	9/29.	9/29.	9/29.	9/28.	9/29.	9/29.	9/29.
Obama-Strong (O)		269	195	175	171	200	160	168	153	157
Obama-Lean (OL)		42	74	75	78	55	80	54	70	55
Tossup (T)		64	84	125	126	83	98	138	141	152
McCain-Lean (ML)		0	27	5	5	26	75	26	22	14
McCain-Strong (M)		163	158	158	158	174	125	152	152	160
Obama Total		311	269	250	249	255	240	222	223	212
McCain Total		163	185	163	163	200	200	178	174	174
Obama Est.		329	302	299	297	291	282	284	284	279
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	68
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	72
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	93
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	103
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	115
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	146
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	150
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	153
Maine	4	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	157
Iowa	7	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	164
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	179
Oregon	7	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	186
Washington	11	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL	197
New Mexico	5	O	O	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	OL	202
Pennsylvania	21	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	T	223
Michigan	17	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	T	240
Minnesota	10	O	OL	T	T	O	T	OL	T	OL	250
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	OL	T	OL	T	OL	T	T	260
Colorado	9	O	OL	T	OL	T	T	T	T	T	269
Nevada	5	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	274
NH	4	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	278
Ohio	20	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	298
Virginia	13	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	311
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	338
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	T	T	353
Indiana	11	T	ML	T	T	ML	ML	T	ML	T	364
Missouri	11	T	ML	T	T	M	ML	T	T	ML	375
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M
Montana	3	M	M	M	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
Arkansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	ML	M
Georgia	15	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M
N. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alaska	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Arizona	10	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	NBC	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.