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DCW House Forecast: 244.6 (+8.6) [was 243.5 (+7.5)]. 18 districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with only 2 districts moving the other way. The biggest mover was the open seat in AL-2, with 3 projections moving it to Tossup.
We also added NV 2 to the chart, with CQ and Crystal Ball moving the race to Rep-Lean.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
We've also added in () The Fix House Line, the rankings of the 20 House seats most likely to switch parties in the fall. The number one ranked race is the most likely to turn over.
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | CQ | Roth | .... |
| Date | 8/30 | 9/3 | 8/22 | 8/13 | 7/29 | ||
| Dem | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 13 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 15 | 21 | 18 | 23 | 6 | ||
| Tossup | 27 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 28 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 11 | 16 | 14 | 22 | 11 | ||
| Rep | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 36.7 | 36.5 | 36.2 | 34.8 | 34.0 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | ||
| House Projection | 245.7 | 245.5 | 245.2 | 243.8 | 243.0 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 7.0 | ||
| NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | D | D | DL | DL | D | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | T | DL | DL | T | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | RL | T | T | RL | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | R | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | RL | RL | T | RL | T | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | R | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | RL | RL | R | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| NV 2 (Heller) | R | R | R | RL | RL | R | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | RL | R | R | RL | R | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| PA 6 (Gerlach) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| WY AL (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | DL | D | DL | T | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| GA 12 (Barrow) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | CQ | Roth | .... | ||
Click for Notes and Graph
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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