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Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.
Colorado remains our tipping point state.
Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, ND and SD, ML->M
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: FL, IN, MN, MO, WA
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | FHQ | CNN | NBC | RM | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | Open Left | 538 .com | EVs |
| Date | 9/17. | 9/15. | 9/15. | 9/13. | 9/17. | 9/15. | 9/17. | 9/17. | 9/17. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 157 | 153 | 172 | 193 | 133 | 154 | 157 | 143 | 197 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 60 | 80 | 61 | 66 | 67 | 43 | 50 | 86 | 63 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 143 | 116 | 78 | 32 | 122 | 141 | 104 | 68 | 13 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 68 | 64 | 67 | 47 | 87 | 26 | 70 | 80 | 38 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 110 | 125 | 160 | 200 | 129 | 174 | 157 | 161 | 227 | ||
| Obama Total | 217 | 233 | 233 | 259 | 200 | 197 | 207 | 229 | 260 | ||
| McCain Total | 178 | 189 | 227 | 247 | 216 | 200 | 227 | 241 | 265 | ||
| Obama Est. | 290 | 288 | 273 | 271 | 265 | 264 | 263 | 262 | 258 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 69 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 79 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 91 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 95 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 98 |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | 101 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | 122 |
| Maine | 4 | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 126 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | 157 |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | O | O | 164 |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | 179 |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | 186 |
| Washington | 11 | OL | OL | OL | O | T | OL | OL | OL | O | 197 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | 207 |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | T | OL | O | T | T | T | T | OL | 217 |
| New Mexico | 5 | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | 222 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | 243 |
| Michigan | 17 | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | OL | OL | 260 |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | 264 |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 273 |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | 286 |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | 291 |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | ML | ML | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | M | 338 |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | ML | M | T | M | ML | T | M | 349 |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | 360 |
| Montana | 3 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | 363 |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | ML | M | 368 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | M | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| FHQ | CNN | NBC | RM | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | Open Left | 538 .com | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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