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Obama leads 296-242, an increase of 3 5 more EVs from our last forecast. Obama pitched a shutout, with McCain not picking up any movement in any state in any forecast. The biggest movement was in Minnesota, with 4 projections moving in Obama's direction, and Iowa, which is now consistently in Obama's favor for the first time in the forecast. Also, Alaska and North Dakota are now 4-category states, ranging from McCain-Strong to Obama-Lean,
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs. Note: AZ is no longer unanimous McCain-Strong (Elec-Vote and Elec-Proj have it at ML), but has not been placed on the chart at this time.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538 .com | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | FHQ | RCP | Open Left | CNN | NBC | RM | .… |
| Date | 9/4. | 9/4. | 9/4. | 9/3. | 9/4. | 9/3. | 9/3. | 8/6. | 8/22. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 243 | 151 | 172 | 165 | 183 | 183 | 153 | 190 | 193 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 43 | 109 | 88 | 57 | 55 | 83 | 90 | 27 | 71 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 28 | 102 | 104 | 162 | 115 | 69 | 106 | 132 | 27 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 67 | 89 | 56 | 60 | 43 | 41 | 64 | 53 | 64 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 157 | 87 | 118 | 94 | 142 | 162 | 125 | 136 | 183 | ||
| Obama Total | 286 | 260 | 260 | 222 | 238 | 266 | 243 | 217 | 264 | ||
| McCain Total | 224 | 176 | 174 | 154 | 185 | 203 | 189 | 189 | 247 | ||
| Obama Est. | 311 | 307 | 306 | 304 | 293 | 292 | 291 | 288 | 276 | ||
| Texas | 34 | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | ML | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | O | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | OL | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | ML | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | M | |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Indiana | 11 | ML | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | ML | ML | T | T | ML | M | T | T | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | O | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | OL | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | OL | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | ML | ML | T | M | OL | M | ML | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | OL | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | ML | T | M | T | ML | OL | M | ML | ML | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | T | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | M | |
| 538 .com | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | FHQ | RCP | Open Left | CNN | NBC | RM | .… | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
States in 3 or more categories:
AK, IN, MO, NM, NC, ND, PA, SD
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