Tuesday, September 30, 2008

House Forecast - 9/30 - Almost at double digits

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DCW House Forecast: 245.8 (+9.8) [was 245.1 (+9.1)]. Fifteen districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with four districts moving the other way. Note that in 2006, Cook and CQ moved 10 and 13 seats, respectively, between 10/1 and election day, (and underestimated the final numbers by 6 seats), so there could still be plenty of movement to come.

One Republican seat, KY-2, was added to the chart, with SSP and Rothenberg both moving it to Rep-Lean. And one Dem seat, GA-12, was moved off the list, as it is now unanimous Dem-Strong.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentSSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....
Date

9/299/259/249/309/29
Dem

575101
Dem-Lean

201318623
Tossup

1827193115
Rep-Lean

1914181122
Rep

678107
Dem-Prediction

33.833.732.532.531.3
Dem (not shown)

213213213213213
House Projection

246.8246.7245.5245.5244.3
Dem-Gain

10.810.79.59.58.3

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDLDDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
AK AL (Young)
RTTDLDDL
IL 11 (Open)
RTDLDLTDL
NJ 3 (Open)
RDLTTTT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTTTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTTRL
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RTTRLTRL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RRLTRLTT
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RRLTRLTRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLTRTRL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRLTRL
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RRLTRLRLRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
PA 3 (English)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 9 (Open)
RRLRLRLRRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRLRRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRLRLRLR
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRRLR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRLRR
MD 1 (Open)
RRLRLRLRR
NV 2 (Heller)
RRRLRLRRL
CA 4 (Open)
RRLRRRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRLRRL
KY 2 (Open)
RRLRRRLR
NE 2 (Terry)
RRRLRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DDLTTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DDLTTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTTTDL
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLDLTTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DDLTDLTDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DDLTDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLTDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLTDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DDLTDLDDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDLDDLDDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDLDDDLDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


SSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....

































































































Click for Notes and Graph


The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Personal Confusion

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Talking Points Memo has a clip from Fox News this morning which TPM claims shows McShame willing to suspend his campaign again. I watched the clip, and didn't quite hear that, but maybe I'm confused.



The thing that interested me was HOW MUCH McCain sounded like Sarah Palin.

Geography

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I take a lot of grief from people who disagree with me that all Americans should be able to name all fifty states and their capitols. But I think it matters that people know what's where.

You may remember that John McShame thought that Spain was in Latin America. His geographic knowledge knows NO BOUNDS as he thinks that Venezuela is in the Middle East.

Today is the FEC's Q3 Contribution Deadline

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Puttin' out a yard sign and bloggin' on the Internets are nice - but they are not enough.

To truly change our country, to have elected officials who stand up for what we believe in, our candidates need your help making their case to the voters. Either by volunteering your time to make phone calls or knock on doors, or - at the minimum - by making a financial contribution to the campaign.

For a list of candidates who need help, I recommend checking the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red-to-Blue web page. This is a program which seeks to support Democrats who are running to turn red districts blue. You can find the DCCC link here.

For other than federal candidates, you can also visit the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or the web page of this great guy running for president.

I'll also make a personal plug for my friend Bev Perdue who is in a tough race to retain a Democratic Governor's seat in North Carolina. This is a state which hasn't elected a Republican Governor but twice in the past 100 years, but it hasn't been easy, either. Let's remind the voters that real Carolina Blue is the Democratic kind.

Yes, it's a rough economy - but it doesn't take much to make a big difference. You can donate anywhere from $1 on up to the legally allowed limit. I have given to a number of candidates already, will give a little bit more today and I encourage others to do the same.

In an age of Internet fundraising, even modest contributions make a big difference as evidenced by the millions of small contributions given to the campaign of Barack Obama.

Got a favorite candidate that you'd like others to consider contributing to today? Leave a message and a link to the candidate page in the comments section!

UPDATE:
The deadline is today, September 30th and you have until midnight tonight (in your time zone) to make a contribution.

Polling Update - September 30th

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Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Yesterday: Obama 50, McCain 45).
Hotline: Obama 47, McCain 41 (Yesterday: Obama 47, McCain 42).
Daily Kos: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Yesterday: Obama 51, McCain 42).
Gallup: Obama 49, McCain 43 (Yesterday: Obama 50, McCain 42).

Four poll average: Obama 49.5, McCain 42.5 (Obama 49.5, McCain 42.75).

Here's the overall national trend from Pollster.com in a cool new embeddable format.

Barack Obama's speech in Reno, NV

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This is no longer just a Wall Street crisis – it’s an American crisis, and it’s the American economy that needs this rescue plan. I understand why people would be skeptical when this President asks for a blank check to solve a problem. I’ve spent most of my time in Washington being skeptical of this Administration, and this time was no different. That’s why over a week ago, I demanded that this plan include specific proposals to protect American taxpayer – protections that the Administration eventually agreed to, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

First, I said we needed an independent board to provide oversight and accountability for how and where this money is spent at every step of the way.

Second, I said that we cannot help banks on Wall Street without helping the millions of innocent homeowners who are struggling to stay in their homes. They deserve a plan too.

Third, I said that I would not allow this plan to become a welfare program for the Wall Street executives whose greed and irresponsibility got us into this mess.

And finally, I said that if American taxpayers are financing this solution, then you should be treated like investors – you should get every penny of your tax dollars back once this economy recovers.
You can read the full speech here.

Don't let this happen

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Scary huh?

You can get all the voter information you need at Vote For Change

Volunteer for the Obama campaign at your local campaign office or on Neighbor to Neighbor.

Obama campaign releases new ad on fixing the economy

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Today, the Obama-Biden campaign released a new two minute TV ad, Same Path, which includes Senator Obama telling America he knows we can steer ourselves out of this crisis, but not by driving down the very same path and how that’s what this election’s all about.

In the ad, Obama details how his plan to jump-start our economy, create millions of jobs, and bring back our Main Streets all across America differs with John McCain’s plan to continue the same failed policies. Obama specifically lays out how his tax plan which offers three times as much tax relief to the middle class and cuts taxes for small and startup businesses differs from McCain’s which will continue giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies and extends the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest.

Headline of the Morning

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McCain at dead end as House rejects bailout plan - AP

Meanwhile, Obama announced this morning:

The majority of American families should rest assured that the deposits they have in our banks are safe. Thanks to measures put in place during the Great Depression, deposits of up to $100,000 are guaranteed by the federal government.

While that guarantee is more than adequate for most families, it is insufficient for many small businesses that maintain bank accounts to meet their payroll, buy their supplies, and invest in expanding and creating jobs. The current insurance limit of $100,000 was set 28 years ago and has not been adjusted for inflation.

That is why today, I am proposing that we also raise the FDIC limit to $250,000 as part of the economic rescue package – a step that would boost small businesses, make our banking system more secure, and help restore public confidence in our financial system.

Intersection

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It is Rosh Hashanah, Jewish New Years. Last night, in addition to synagogue services there was dinner conversation, and parking lot conversation. Let's just say that I spoke with some people who do not exactly share my personal political leanings.

I read all the comments everyone makes. You write it, I read it. And I know a lot of you think it was an okay thing that the bailout failed. I also know, because I review the DCW poll responses, that a lot of you didn't want to call your House Reps and Senators ahead of the vote.

So here's my intersection: if you read DCW, you're interested in polling numbers. And it was polling numbers, and consitutent calls (which are, a self-poll in a certain way), that made a lot of the people who voted against the bailout do so. What voters THOUGHT and SAID caused the vote to fail. What YOU said (or didn't say) to your Rep affected the outcome of the vote. Polls matter, calls/e-mails to reps matter.

Regular people did not understand what was involved. The government did a crappy job of explaining the ramifications of the failure of Wall Street (ostensibly because they didn't want to scare people), and the Reps, all of whom up for reelection in 35 days, responded to their constituencies. They do not want to lose their jobs.

If you have a Democratic rep, you have an opportunity to call them now, and say: rewrite the bill, leave in the provisions that are there, and ADD consumer/taxpayer/homeowner protections. Make the bill MORE left wing, and then if the caucus is whipped properly, no Republican votes are necessary. If you have Republican Rep, you have an opportunity to call and say "I was wrong - I want whatever bailout the Democrats put forward." This will work with everyone who is not a far right wingnut.

If you have a wingnut Rep, call and say "You preach open markets, and true capitalism; the markets are screaming for help." The young wingnuts don't remember BEING a Rockefeller Republican, but that IS what that party used to be.

Yesterday, the value of investments went down by $1.3 TRILLION dollars. That's your retirement, your kid's college fund, your savings, your investments. That is access to mortgages, car loans, student loans, and the ability of business to procure raw materials, goods, services, and eventually, to fund your paycheck. Banks were nationalized in Europe, one banker has already thrown himself in front of a train. And if you think this can't get worse, you're wrong.

Point is -- CALL or WRITE and tell them to pass a revised bailout. Most all the House is home for Rosh Hashanah, and will be back in DC on Thursday. Phone lines are open, operators are waiting for your call. Reps know that if you call, you vote, and they want you in 35 days.

I'll be back tonight to read and answer your comments -- if you want to be angry at my position, so be it, it won't be the first time. But PLEASE, be a citizen, get involved. Help save our country - the business of government is more than just voting on election day.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/29 - 5 weeks to go

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After the first debate, after the failed bailout, before the VP debate, Obama increases his projection by 8 EVs, and now leads 294-244 with major movement in many swing states. Of interest is the very low number of McCain-Lean states. (On the map only MO and WV qualify). McCain's consolidated his base, moving some marginal red states all the way to Strong. But at the same time, the light red swing states of FL, OH and NC made major movement into the Tossup category.

NH/NV/OH/VA all qualify as tipping point states. We should note that the tipping point state has always been a pure or mostly pure Tossup, which means that a small move towards McCain could still give him a road to victory.

Map changes: Towards Obama: IN, NC: ML->T.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

We have made a small change in the algorithms. Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. This will prevent the isolated movement of a TX or NY to Lean in 1 projection from affecting the overall number. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: ME (Obama), MT, AR, GA, LA, ND (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, NM, PA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBCEVs
Date

9/29.9/24.9/29.9/29.9/29.9/28.9/29.9/29.9/29.
Obama-Strong (O)

269195175171200160168153157
Obama-Lean (OL)

427475785580547055
Tossup (T)

64841251268398138141152
McCain-Lean (ML)

027552675262214
McCain-Strong (M)

163158158158174125152152160
Obama Total

311269250249255240222223212
McCain Total

163185163163200200178174174
Obama Est.

329302299297291282284284279

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOOLOOOLOOLO157
Iowa
7OOOLOOOLOLOLOL164
New Jersey
15OOOOLOOLOLOLOL179
Oregon
7OOLOOOLOOLOLOL186
Washington
11OOOLOLOOLOOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLTOLOLOLOL202
Pennsylvania
21OOLOLOLOLOLTOLT223
Michigan
17OOLOLOLOLOLTTT240
Minnesota
10OOLTTOTOLTOL250
Wisconsin
10OOLOLTOLTOLTT260
Colorado
9OOLTOLTTTTT269
Nevada
5OLTTTTTTTT274
NH
4OLTTTTTTTT278
Ohio
20OLTTTTTTTT298
Virginia
13OLTTTTTTTT311
Florida
27TTTTTTTTT338
N. Carolina
15TTTTMLMLMLTT353
Indiana
11TMLTTMLMLTMLT364
Missouri
11TMLTTMMLTTML375
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMLMMLMLMLM
Montana
3MMMMMMLMLMML
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMMLM
Georgia
15MMMMMMLMMM
Louisiana
9MMMMMMLMMM
N. Dakota
3MMMMMMMLMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBC....






















































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.