Tuesday, July 01, 2008

House Forecast - July 1

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This is the DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web for the 2008 House elections. Be sure to check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

DCW House Forecast: 241.7 (+5.7).

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection:


DCW House Tracker
State
CurrentCookCrystal BallSSPCQRothenberg....
Date

6/266/106/86/276/19
Dem-Strong

78726
Dem-Lean

1416192213
Tossup

2619131526
Rep-Lean

81013208
Rep-Strong

791039
Dem-Prediction

32.832.331.331.131.0
Dem-Strong (not shown)

209209209209209
House Projection

241.8241.3240.3240.1240.0
Dem-Gain

5.85.34.34.14.0

AK AL (Young)
RTTTTT
AL 2 (Open)
RRLRLRRLR
AL 5 (Open)
DTTTTT
AZ 1 (Open)
RTTTDLT
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DTDLDLDLT
CA 4 (Open)
RRRRRLR
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTRLRLT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTRLRLRLRL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDLD
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRLRRLR
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLTDLTT
FL 24 (Feeney)
RRLRRRRL
GA 12 (Barrow)
DDDDDLD
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLDLT
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTRLRLRLT
IL 11 (Open)
RDLDDLDDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDLD
IL 8 (Bean)
DDDDDLD
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KS 2 (Boyda)
DTTDLTT
KS 3 (Moore)
DDDDDDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
LA 4 (Open)
RRLTRLRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTDLDLTT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTRLRLRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RRLRRLRLRL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDLDL
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRRLRLRL
MO 9 (Open)
RRRRRLR
MS 1 (Childers)
DTDLDLDLDL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTTRLTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DDLDLDLDLT
NJ 3 (Open)
RTTTRLT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 2 (Open)
RRLRLRRR
NV 3 (Porter)
RRLRLRLRLRL
NY 13 (Open)
RTTTTT
NY 19 (Hall)
DDDDDLD
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDLDLDLDLDL
NY 25 (Open)
RTTDLTDL
NY 26 (Open)
RTTTRLT
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTRLRLRLT
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTRLRLRLRL
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
Oh 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRRLRLRLRL
OR 5 (Open)
DDLDLDLTT
PA 10 (Carney)
DTDLDLDLT
PA 3 (English)
RRRRRLR
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 6 (Gerlach)
RRRRRLR
TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTDLT
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDLD
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLTDLDL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRRRR
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTRLRLTT
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLDLDL
WY AL (Cubin)
RRRRRLR


CookCrystal BallSSPCQRothenberg....
























































































































The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.

Comments (14)

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Another race to look at is FL-8 (Ric Keller - R). Widely criticized for doing as close to nothing as possible, and represents Orlando and a goodly chunk of blue real estate. Alan Grayson (D) is looking strong in a large field of contenders in the August 26th primary.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Absolutely. It's R+3, and Cook has it as Likely Rep, CQ has it as Rep. Favored - both meaning it could become competitive. I imagine they're waiting for the primary winner to be determined before changing the ranking.
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I don't buy the analysis of MO-6 and MO-9. The incumbent in MO-6 has already started running attack ads in May. You don't do that unless polls are showing a potentially competitive race. In MO-9, there are just too many candidates in both parties primaries to analyze the general election race yet.
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 871 weeks ago

i wonder at the gains projected in the house. not that i have any inside info, i trust you guys know a great deal more than i do, but historically, when you have a landslide victory, and a good size shift in the senate in the same direction, thus inferring long coat tails, you have a twenty -30 seat move in the house. why is the house looking relatively tight? is it just early, or is the house acting differently this election?
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
It could just be early, for many of the reasons DocJess gives below. Lets look at what happened in '04. (I'll get this up in a full post later this week). A similar analysis, using just CQ and Cook, gave the following numbers. The Dems were +8 in July, +12 on Oct 1, +22 on Oct 31, and ended up +31. So there definitely can be a lot more movement - and a lot of it may not even happen until October.

One correction to the chart. SSP has NY-14 as Dem-Lean.
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NOTE ON HOUSE FORECASTS AND ANALYSES: The numbers shown in the table are from published sources. They are based on polls, prior history, and information gleaned by "professionals". Please don't shoot the messenger.

Part of the low forecast is due to the fact that there are a lot of congressional primaries still to come, and those outcomes can affect the races. (You can check the California post for the link to see the whole schedule). In addition, this was a LONG primary season, and a lot of attention has been paid to the national race, and the local races haven't geared up yet.

Third, local races are affected by local factors, and the ability of the candidates to do retail politics, especially in seats belonging to retiring House members. It's easy to just look at the past trends and extrapolate (at least, that's what a lot of professionals do).

Finally, there is the mathematical issue -- as the majority grows, the potential to pick up more seats decreases. Still, I personally think the "professional" forecast is understated, but the thing about DCW is that the site has always gone with actual sources and not "what all of us Democrats want to see".

Scuttlebutt last fall was that we'd pick up at least another 20 seats this cycle, and I don't see that as unreachable. Look at everything again Labour Day weekend, the more local the election, the more the summer matters.
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Forgot one thing: there are only 17 states that allow straight ticket ballots -- if more did that, there is a possibility that more people would choose the party over selecting individual candidates.

The states are: Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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Peter Zenger's avatar

Peter Zenger · 871 weeks ago

I am very surprised that none of the sources list NE-2 (Terry) as a Republican Lean. Jim Esch gave Terry a run for his money 2 years ago, and his year with Obama at the top of the ticket, there will be a large democratic surge in Omaha fueled by the sizeable aftrican american population (13% as of 2000 census)
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SSP has NY-13 as Leans Dem.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
In my heart, ever since Fossella collapsed on the House floor in tears, and up through the untimely death of the next Republican candidate, I've had this as "ABSOLUTE DEMOCRATIC PICK-UP"

I figure ALL the polls will catch up with me soon, followed by the CW. (Pardon my seeming arrogance, it's just my pick fave race of the year, and has been for months)
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 871 weeks ago

thanks all, no i appreciate that DCW sticks to "just the facts" but was wondering if i was missing something. do you also expect the pres race to tighten? will obama give back a few as the GOP takes its best shots, or will his charm and money, not to mention the 400 lb gorilla around McCains neck (3rd term of W), let him continue to pull away from the ancient one in November?
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Here's the thing everyone forgets -- there has never been an election like this one.

It used to be that you got your election news from the morning newspaper and the evening newscast. Generally, there wasn't much information before the conventions, as it was party regulars that picked the candidates. "Regular" primaries and caucuses are relatively recent in terms of being transparent.

There never were polls like there are now: technology allows people to collect more data from more people more often, and process it more quickly (and sometimes more accurately). It's REALLY RECENT that phone calls are virtually free -- it used to cost A LOT to make a phone call (except Sunday from 5 - 11pm). Therefore, there was a lot less data.

Netroots allows for more information dissemination from an incredibly huge set of sources. Look at something singular, like that Obama may accept the nomination at Mile High Stadium. Will it happen? I don't know, I'm waiting like everyone else. But if it does, the story wasn't broken by the Times or one of the networks -- it happened HERE in the left wing blogosphere.

There has never been a machine like the Obama machine -- effective, top-down and bottom-up simultaneously, on message, and participated in by more than a million people (donors, campaign staff and volunteers). The participants include the "party faithful" for sure -- but also people who have NEVER been involved before.

So, kick back and watch history unfold.
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Continued (ran out of room)

Surely there are things that can happen which can tighten all sorts of races: national, state and local, and those effects can tumble down or run up.

It's only what, 124 days until the election? Enjoy the moment, the excitement, get out and register voters, politic your neighborhood and office, and watch the wave....
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From: 'US News and World Report'
Some GOP insiders now predict that the Republicans will lose at least five seats in the Senate and 15 to 20 in the House...
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