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This is the DemConWatch House Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web for the 2008 House elections. Be sure to check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
DCW House Forecast: 241.7 (+5.7).
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection:
| DCW House Tracker | |||||||
| State | Current | Cook | Crystal Ball | SSP | CQ | Rothenberg | .... |
| Date | 6/26 | 6/10 | 6/8 | 6/27 | 6/19 | ||
| Dem-Strong | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 13 | ||
| Tossup | 26 | 19 | 13 | 15 | 26 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 8 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 8 | ||
| Rep-Strong | 7 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 9 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 32.8 | 32.3 | 31.3 | 31.1 | 31.0 | ||
| Dem-Strong (not shown) | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | ||
| House Projection | 241.8 | 241.3 | 240.3 | 240.1 | 240.0 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | ||
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | R | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | DL | T | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | RL | RL | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | RL | R | RL | R | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | T | DL | T | T | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | RL | R | R | R | RL | |
| GA 12 (Barrow) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | D | DL | D | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| IL 8 (Bean) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| KS 3 (Moore) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | RL | T | RL | RL | T | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | DL | DL | T | T | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | RL | R | RL | RL | RL | |
| MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | DL | DL | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | R | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| NY 13 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NY 19 (Hall) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | T | T | DL | T | DL | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Oh 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | T | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 6 (Gerlach) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | DL | T | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | T | DL | DL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | RL | RL | T | T | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| WY AL (Cubin) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| Cook | Crystal Ball | SSP | CQ | Rothenberg | .... | ||
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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Greg in FL · 871 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 871 weeks ago
tmess2 · 871 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 871 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 871 weeks ago
One correction to the chart. SSP has NY-14 as Dem-Lean.
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
Part of the low forecast is due to the fact that there are a lot of congressional primaries still to come, and those outcomes can affect the races. (You can check the California post for the link to see the whole schedule). In addition, this was a LONG primary season, and a lot of attention has been paid to the national race, and the local races haven't geared up yet.
Third, local races are affected by local factors, and the ability of the candidates to do retail politics, especially in seats belonging to retiring House members. It's easy to just look at the past trends and extrapolate (at least, that's what a lot of professionals do).
Finally, there is the mathematical issue -- as the majority grows, the potential to pick up more seats decreases. Still, I personally think the "professional" forecast is understated, but the thing about DCW is that the site has always gone with actual sources and not "what all of us Democrats want to see".
Scuttlebutt last fall was that we'd pick up at least another 20 seats this cycle, and I don't see that as unreachable. Look at everything again Labour Day weekend, the more local the election, the more the summer matters.
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
The states are: Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Peter Zenger · 871 weeks ago
S.R. · 871 weeks ago
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
I figure ALL the polls will catch up with me soon, followed by the CW. (Pardon my seeming arrogance, it's just my pick fave race of the year, and has been for months)
uplandpoet · 871 weeks ago
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
It used to be that you got your election news from the morning newspaper and the evening newscast. Generally, there wasn't much information before the conventions, as it was party regulars that picked the candidates. "Regular" primaries and caucuses are relatively recent in terms of being transparent.
There never were polls like there are now: technology allows people to collect more data from more people more often, and process it more quickly (and sometimes more accurately). It's REALLY RECENT that phone calls are virtually free -- it used to cost A LOT to make a phone call (except Sunday from 5 - 11pm). Therefore, there was a lot less data.
Netroots allows for more information dissemination from an incredibly huge set of sources. Look at something singular, like that Obama may accept the nomination at Mile High Stadium. Will it happen? I don't know, I'm waiting like everyone else. But if it does, the story wasn't broken by the Times or one of the networks -- it happened HERE in the left wing blogosphere.
There has never been a machine like the Obama machine -- effective, top-down and bottom-up simultaneously, on message, and participated in by more than a million people (donors, campaign staff and volunteers). The participants include the "party faithful" for sure -- but also people who have NEVER been involved before.
So, kick back and watch history unfold.
DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago
Surely there are things that can happen which can tighten all sorts of races: national, state and local, and those effects can tumble down or run up.
It's only what, 124 days until the election? Enjoy the moment, the excitement, get out and register voters, politic your neighborhood and office, and watch the wave....
Leah 85p · 871 weeks ago
Some GOP insiders now predict that the Republicans will lose at least five seats in the Senate and 15 to 20 in the House...