Tuesday, September 16, 2008

McCain/Palin should be campaigning in New Jersey

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We don't usually give advice to the McCain campaign, but if we were John McCain and Sarah Palin, we would be jumping for joy at the latest polls in NJ. Just look how close its getting:

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll of NJ LVs released this a.m. shows Obama and Joe Biden leading John McCain and Sarah Palin 48-45%, down from Obama's 51-41% margin on 8/10. ...

Also out this a.m. is a Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey poll of LVs which shows Obama leading McCain 49-41% -- exactly on the poll's +/- 4.0% margin of error. And while Obama's 8% lead is more than his advantage in the Quinnipiac poll, it is down from his 14% lead in the Monmouth survey completed 7/21. ...

Over the weekend, the Bergen Record/Research 2000 showed Obama/Biden leading 50-41%, and Marist College showed Obama/Biden up 48-45%. Both surveys queried LVs prior to Quinnipiac and Monmouth -- the Record from 9/9-11 and Marist from 9/5-8. - Hotline on Call

Only down by 3 points in two polls! We might have to move NJ to Tossup in the next Presidential Forecast. We really think that if McCain and Palin spend enough time in NJ, they might be able to pull off a win here. We especially think that NJ's independent and moderate voters will find Palin a very interesting candidate for VP.

And it's not just NJ. The latest Siena poll shows Obama only leading by 5 in NY, 46-41. New York? in play? What an opportunity for the McCain campaign. Campaign in NJ, and hit both states at the same time! Even better, with both states in play, we wouldn't be surprised if the McCain team starts advertising in NY. Sure, the NY market is expensive, but the chance to swing NJ and NY red? Kerry gave up on Missouri too early in 2004. If the McCain folks are smart, they'll look to steal NJ and NY out from under the Obama campaign's nose, and wrap up the election right here.

Update: Even Nate from 538 agrees with me:
Meanwhile, polling in the New York/New Jersey region has shown some bounce for John McCain. It's probably too late for the McCain campaign to devote serious resources to New Jersey, but it might make for an interesting target if they did.
John McCain, please come to New Jersey. And make sure Palin comes to. I'm sure once NJ's voters get a good look at your VP candidate, NJ will move out of Tossup territory faster than one can field-dress a moose.