Presidential Forecast - 9/11 - This pig needs some lipstick

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The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, MO, NC, PA, SD, WA, WI

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	CNN	EV. com	NBC	RM	Open Left	RCP	538 .com	EVs
Date		9/11.	9/8.	9/3.	9/11.	9/8.	9/9.	9/11.	9/11.	9/11.
Obama-Strong (O)		165	157	153	140	190	193	181	157	238
Obama-Lean (OL)		52	103	90	70	38	66	40	60	26
Tossup (T)		158	93	106	142	110	32	88	105	29
McCain-Lean (ML)		71	49	64	75	64	58	59	44	45
McCain-Strong (M)		92	136	125	111	136	189	170	172	200
Obama Total		217	260	243	210	228	259	221	217	264
McCain Total		163	185	189	186	200	247	229	216	245
Obama Est.		300	296	291	282	288	273	269	266	266
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	69
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	90
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	100
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	112
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	116
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	119
Maine	4	O	O	OL	O	O	O	O	O	O	123
New York	31	O	O	O	OL	O	O	O	O	O	154
Delaware	3	OL	O	O	OL	O	O	O	O	O	157
Minnesota	10	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	167
Iowa	7	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	O	OL	O	174
New Jersey	15	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	O	OL	OL	O	189
Oregon	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	O	196
Washington	11	O	OL	OL	T	O	O	OL	OL	O	207
Wisconsin	10	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	O	217
Pennsylvania	21	T	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T	O	238
NH	4	T	T	T	OL	T	OL	OL	T	OL	242
Michigan	17	T	OL	T	T	T	OL	T	T	OL	259
New Mexico	5	T	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	T	OL	264
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	273
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	278
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	T	T	298
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	311
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	338
Indiana	11	T	ML	ML	T	ML	M	T	T	M	349
Missouri	11	T	ML	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	360
N. Carolina	15	T	T	ML	M	ML	M	M	M	M	375
S. Dakota	3	ML	M	M	T	ML	M	ML	M	M	378
Montana	3	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M	ML	M
W. Virginia	5	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	ML	M	M
Georgia	15	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
N. Dakota	3	ML	M	M	M	ML	M	M	ML	M
Alaska	3	M	ML	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M
Arizona	10	M	ML	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M
Arkansas	6	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	ML	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M
Louisiana	9	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		FHQ	Elect. Proj.	CNN	EV. com	NBC	RM	Open Left	RCP	538 .com	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup



The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.