Thursday, September 11, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 9/11 - This pig needs some lipstick

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, MO, NC, PA, SD, WA, WI

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsFHQElect. Proj.CNNEV.
com
NBCRMOpen LeftRCP538
.com
EVs
Date

9/11.9/8.9/3.9/11.9/8.9/9.9/11.9/11.9/11.
Obama-Strong (O)

165157153140190193181157238
Obama-Lean (OL)

5210390703866406026
Tossup (T)

15893106142110328810529
McCain-Lean (ML)

714964756458594445
McCain-Strong (M)

92136125111136189170172200
Obama Total

217260243210228259221217264
McCain Total

163185189186200247229216245
Obama Est.

300296291282288273269266266

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO69
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO90
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO100
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO112
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO116
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO119
Maine
4OOOLOOOOOO123
New York
31OOOOLOOOOO154
Delaware
3OLOOOLOOOOO157
Minnesota
10OLOLOLOOLOOOLO167
Iowa
7OLOLOLOOLOLOOLO174
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOOOLOLO189
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOOLOOLO196
Washington
11OOLOLTOOOLOLO207
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLTOLOLOLO217
Pennsylvania
21TOLOLTOLOLTTO238
NH
4TTTOLTOLOLTOL242
Michigan
17TOLTTTOLTTOL259
New Mexico
5TOLOLTTTTTOL264
Colorado
9TTTTTTTTT273
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTML278
Ohio
20TTTTTMLTTT298
Virginia
13TTTTTTMLTML311
Florida
27TTTTTMLMLMLML338
Indiana
11TMLMLTMLMTTM349
Missouri
11TMLTMLMLMLMLMLM360
N. Carolina
15TTMLMMLMMMM375
S. Dakota
3MLMMTMLMMLMM378
Montana
3MLMLMLMMLMMMLM
W. Virginia
5MLMLMLMLMMMLMM
Georgia
15MLMMLMLMLMMMM
N. Dakota
3MLMMMMLMMMLM
Alaska
3MMLMMMLMMMM
Arizona
10MMLMMLMMMMM
Arkansas
6MMLMLMMMMMM
Texas
34MLMMMLMMMMM
Louisiana
9MMMLMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MLMMMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Mississippi
6MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


FHQElect. Proj.CNNEV.
com
NBCRMOpen LeftRCP538
.com
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Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup



The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Comments (27)

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gaaaaah I hope this is the turning point.
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I am worrying.
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2 replies · active 861 weeks ago
Guys didnt you see the report obama is going to fight back. Remember he doesnt throw the first punch, but always the last! Have faith! It will turn out ok. We still have fifty frekin four days left. Lots will change between now and then. Heck guys, the race officially just begun like last week after the convention.
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It is still too early to despair. Most of the newest polls were taken in the immediate aftermath of the Republican Convention. It will be another week until we get a better picture of how things are looking heading into the debates.

I have always believed that we would not have a true picture of the shape of the campaign until October 1st. Democrats always tend to pick newer faces for the Presidential pick (with experienced faces for VP) and the Republicans tend to pick the opposite. While that normally gives the Democrats the opportunity to stand as the "change" candidate, it also means that voters have doubts that will not be resolved until the debates. Democrats win when voters decide that the Democratic candidate is not as bad as they were led to believe and lose when voters decide that the Democratic candidate is worse than they were led to believe.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago

Obama is very smart. Have faith.

My faith in Democracy disappeared awhile ago, though. Alexander Hamilton was right.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago

I just hope he has a strong team looking for crooked ballot handling of various sorts. The Republicans always do that, so if it is close, that would tip things the wrong way.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago

And, I'd like to see far more effort from the Clintons. So far, talk, but not a lot of action. They could both help considerably with Palin voters, unless the Clintons really are in 2012 for Hillary mode.
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I like the new format for the chart, Matt!
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago

Uh, Michigan on the map?
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Yeah I love how the UP of Michigan is now part of Wisconsin...
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1 reply · active 861 weeks ago
uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 861 weeks ago

ok, i am offically sick on my stomach! yeah, i know obama is nothing if not savvy, and i think the we heart palin movement is gonna run flat, but still, watching this slide is very sickening. I guess it does help with the motivation, but i am really counting on him winning so big the GOP cant steal it again like they did the last two....
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1 reply · active 861 weeks ago
Look for the DCW average to drop even more. EV has McCain winning 270-268 now. I personally think Obama needed a lead going into the debates because that's where he seems to suffer and right now it doesn't look like he has much if any lead overall. Could spell trouble but I'd be surprised if he didn't win. It all depends on the youth vote which we've seen in the past isn't very reliable.
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2 replies · active 861 weeks ago
Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago

I looovvvee Iowa. Now let's see this sensibleness in some of the battleground states:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...

“Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.”
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New NBC numbers: Chuck Todd had a new map on Meet the Press today. It's not up on the website, but here are the changes: AK: ML->M; FL: T->ML; GA: ML->M; NM: T->OL; ND: ML->M; OR: O->OL; SD: ML->M; WS: O->OL. Total: 288.2 ->273.2.
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago

New CNN, poll of polls have Obama and McCain tied 45%
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago

new update tonight?
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