WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.
Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, MO, NC, PA, SD, WA, WI
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | CNN | EV. com | NBC | RM | Open Left | RCP | 538 .com | EVs |
| Date | 9/11. | 9/8. | 9/3. | 9/11. | 9/8. | 9/9. | 9/11. | 9/11. | 9/11. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 165 | 157 | 153 | 140 | 190 | 193 | 181 | 157 | 238 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 52 | 103 | 90 | 70 | 38 | 66 | 40 | 60 | 26 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 158 | 93 | 106 | 142 | 110 | 32 | 88 | 105 | 29 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 71 | 49 | 64 | 75 | 64 | 58 | 59 | 44 | 45 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 92 | 136 | 125 | 111 | 136 | 189 | 170 | 172 | 200 | ||
| Obama Total | 217 | 260 | 243 | 210 | 228 | 259 | 221 | 217 | 264 | ||
| McCain Total | 163 | 185 | 189 | 186 | 200 | 247 | 229 | 216 | 245 | ||
| Obama Est. | 300 | 296 | 291 | 282 | 288 | 273 | 269 | 266 | 266 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 69 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 90 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 112 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 116 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 119 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | 123 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | 154 |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | 157 |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | 167 |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | O | OL | O | 174 |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | O | 189 |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | OL | O | 196 |
| Washington | 11 | O | OL | OL | T | O | O | OL | OL | O | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | O | 217 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | O | 238 |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | OL | T | OL | OL | T | OL | 242 |
| Michigan | 17 | T | OL | T | T | T | OL | T | T | OL | 259 |
| New Mexico | 5 | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | OL | 264 |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 273 |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | 278 |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | 298 |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | 338 |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | ML | T | ML | M | T | T | M | 349 |
| Missouri | 11 | T | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | 360 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | 375 |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | T | ML | M | ML | M | M | 378 |
| Montana | 3 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| FHQ | Elect. Proj. | CNN | EV. com | NBC | RM | Open Left | RCP | 538 .com | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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