WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.
Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: IN, MO, NC, PA, SD, WA, WI
DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
State | EVs | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | CNN | EV. com | NBC | RM | Open Left | RCP | 538 .com | EVs |
Date | 9/11. | 9/8. | 9/3. | 9/11. | 9/8. | 9/9. | 9/11. | 9/11. | 9/11. | ||
Obama-Strong (O) | 165 | 157 | 153 | 140 | 190 | 193 | 181 | 157 | 238 | ||
Obama-Lean (OL) | 52 | 103 | 90 | 70 | 38 | 66 | 40 | 60 | 26 | ||
Tossup (T) | 158 | 93 | 106 | 142 | 110 | 32 | 88 | 105 | 29 | ||
McCain-Lean (ML) | 71 | 49 | 64 | 75 | 64 | 58 | 59 | 44 | 45 | ||
McCain-Strong (M) | 92 | 136 | 125 | 111 | 136 | 189 | 170 | 172 | 200 | ||
Obama Total | 217 | 260 | 243 | 210 | 228 | 259 | 221 | 217 | 264 | ||
McCain Total | 163 | 185 | 189 | 186 | 200 | 247 | 229 | 216 | 245 | ||
Obama Est. | 300 | 296 | 291 | 282 | 288 | 273 | 269 | 266 | 266 | ||
California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 69 |
Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 90 |
Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 100 |
Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 112 |
Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 116 |
Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 119 |
Maine | 4 | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | 123 |
New York | 31 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | 154 |
Delaware | 3 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | 157 |
Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | 167 |
Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | O | OL | O | 174 |
New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | O | 189 |
Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | OL | O | 196 |
Washington | 11 | O | OL | OL | T | O | O | OL | OL | O | 207 |
Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | O | 217 |
Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | O | 238 |
NH | 4 | T | T | T | OL | T | OL | OL | T | OL | 242 |
Michigan | 17 | T | OL | T | T | T | OL | T | T | OL | 259 |
New Mexico | 5 | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | OL | 264 |
Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 273 |
Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | 278 |
Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | 298 |
Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | 311 |
Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | 338 |
Indiana | 11 | T | ML | ML | T | ML | M | T | T | M | 349 |
Missouri | 11 | T | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | 360 |
N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | 375 |
S. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | T | ML | M | ML | M | M | 378 |
Montana | 3 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
W. Virginia | 5 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | |
Georgia | 15 | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | |
N. Dakota | 3 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
Alaska | 3 | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
Arizona | 10 | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
Louisiana | 9 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
FHQ | Elect. Proj. | CNN | EV. com | NBC | RM | Open Left | RCP | 538 .com | .... |
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
Vicki 51p · 861 weeks ago
ngungo · 861 weeks ago
t · 861 weeks ago
tmess2 70p · 861 weeks ago
I have always believed that we would not have a true picture of the shape of the campaign until October 1st. Democrats always tend to pick newer faces for the Presidential pick (with experienced faces for VP) and the Republicans tend to pick the opposite. While that normally gives the Democrats the opportunity to stand as the "change" candidate, it also means that voters have doubts that will not be resolved until the debates. Democrats win when voters decide that the Democratic candidate is not as bad as they were led to believe and lose when voters decide that the Democratic candidate is worse than they were led to believe.
Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago
My faith in Democracy disappeared awhile ago, though. Alexander Hamilton was right.
Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago
SLCScott 74p · 861 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 861 weeks ago
wajiw · 861 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 861 weeks ago
Matthew · 861 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 860 weeks ago
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...
“Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.”
Matt 75p · 860 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 860 weeks ago