WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
As we bid goodbye to the conventions, and start the two-month sprint to the finish, Obama leads 294-244, an decrease of 2 EVs from our last forecast. The projections that look directly at the national numbers, Election Projection and 538, had major movement towards McCain. The other projections were more mixed, and we note that NBC did their monthly update.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Unanimous solid states:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | EV. com | FHQ | Open Left | 538 .com | Elect. Proj. | CNN | NBC | RCP | RM | EVs |
| Date | 9/8. | 9/9. | 9/8. | 9/8. | 9/8. | 9/3. | 9/8. | 9/8. | 8/22. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 151 | 165 | 201 | 243 | 157 | 153 | 190 | 172 | 193 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 109 | 57 | 50 | 30 | 103 | 90 | 38 | 45 | 71 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 113 | 159 | 104 | 38 | 93 | 106 | 110 | 147 | 27 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 75 | 63 | 18 | 48 | 49 | 64 | 64 | 32 | 64 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 90 | 94 | 165 | 179 | 136 | 125 | 136 | 142 | 183 | ||
| Obama Total | 260 | 222 | 251 | 273 | 260 | 243 | 228 | 217 | 264 | ||
| McCain Total | 165 | 157 | 183 | 227 | 185 | 189 | 200 | 174 | 247 | ||
| Obama Est. | 310 | 303 | 297 | 296 | 296 | 291 | 288 | 288 | 276 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 69 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 90 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 100 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 112 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 116 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 119 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | 123 |
| New York | 31 | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 154 |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 157 |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | 172 |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | OL | O | 183 |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | OL | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | 193 |
| Iowa | 7 | O | OL | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | 200 |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | 207 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | 217 |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | T | T | OL | 222 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | T | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | 243 |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | OL | 260 |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | OL | 264 |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | 273 |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | 278 |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 291 |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | T | ML | 338 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | T | M | 353 |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | 356 |
| Indiana | 11 | T | T | T | M | ML | ML | ML | T | M | 367 |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | T | OL | ML | M | M | ML | ML | ML | 370 |
| Missouri | 11 | ML | T | M | M | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | 381 |
| S. Dakota | 3 | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | 384 |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | ML | M | 399 |
| Alaska | 3 | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| EV. com | FHQ | Open Left | 538 .com | Elect. Proj. | CNN | NBC | RCP | RM | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
States in 3 or more categories:
IN, MO, NM, NC, ND, PA, SD, WI
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