WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Senate Forecast: 56.3, up 0.2 from our previous forecast. There's been movement in both NC and MN, making these seats competitive again.
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)
Also, two seats we've been tracking, NJ and KY, are unanimously safe., but we'll leave them on the chart for now, in case that changes.
The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:
|DemConWatch Senate Forecast|
|Open Left||Crystal Ball||Cook||CQ||SSP||Roth||....|
|Dem '08 Projection||18||18||18||17||17||17||17||16|
|Dem '10/'12 Seats||39||39||39||39||39||39||39||39|
|Dem Senate Projection||57||57||57||56||56||56||56||55|
Notes and Graph below
Here are the seats that span 3 categories:
- AK (Stevens): Three now at Democratic Strong, Rothenberg still at Tossup
- LA (Landrieu): 3 at Dem-Strong, Rothenberg at Tossup
- NC (NEW): CQ at Rep-Strong, EV.com at Tossup
- NH (Sununu): 3 at Dem-Strong, Cook at Tossup
- OR (Smith) (NEW): 2 at Rep-Strong, Cook at Tossup