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This is the DemConWatch Presidential Forecast, a summary of the best election projections on the web. Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Update 7/9: Latest projection: Obama leads 303-235, a gain of 1 EV from July 6. Scattered movement all around, but the big change is that NBC finally updated their chart after a month, with the most important change being WI moving from Tossup to Obama-Lean. Some ask why I keep NBC and CNN in the chart, given how infrequently they update. The reason is that the differing methodologies give us a better view of the overall race. For example, Chuck Todd of NBC said today that the reason they haven't moved Indiana to Tossup (and he said they almost did anyway) was that the McCain campaign wasn't advertising there. Is that a valid reason when Obama is one point up in the latest SurveyUSA poll? What do you think?
A history chart is at the bottom of this post.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: MO moves McCain to Tossup. NM moves Tossup to Obama.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE (new), OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs. NE is off the chart, and SD is no longer unanimous, and added to the chart.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
|DCW General Election Tracker|
|State||EVs||Elect. Proj.||Open Left||538.com||EV.|
|Elect. Proj.||Open Left||538.com||EV.|
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska: Now only 1 at Tossup, 3 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen's own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
Arkansas: 5 McCain-Strong, 1 Tossup
- Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
- Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 4 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
- New Hampshire: 4 at Tossup, 1 at Obama-Lean, 4 at Obama-Strong. This should move Obama's way as the older polls age out.
- New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
- North Dakota - Three now at tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
- Oregon - One of the few Obama states that seems to be closing, with Obama only up by 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. 1 Tossup, 2 Obama-Strong.
Wisconsin: 4 now at Obama-Strong. Just NBC still calling it a Tossup.
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.